Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[minionofmidas]

Updated with Texas added in the House.

Calling Lampson a tossup might be being generous. Or maybe you're unimpressed with the Rep recruiting there? Are there any obvious favorites for the nomination among his half-a-score strong field of opponents?
Nice to hear you think Rodriguez is in as little danger as Bean.

[minionofmidas]

Considering the GOP got the best possible match-up in terms of winning the election, I think NJ should be moved to Likely D rather than Safe D.  I'd say Zimmer winds up losing by less than 5%

You must know something I don't. Like, Camden County finding a million absentee votes for Andrews yesterday.

[minionofmidas]

Considering the GOP got the best possible match-up in terms of winning the election, I think NJ should be moved to Likely D rather than Safe D.  I'd say Zimmer winds up losing by less than 5%

You must know something I don't. Like, Camden County finding a million absentee votes for Andrews yesterday.

I don't agree with you there, I think Andrews would have been much, much harder to defeat.  The main argument for NJ GOP is to say, "hey Democrats are old and trite and let's give us some new breath."  If Andrews had been in there, I doubt the GOP would have spent a lot of time on the election.  Lautenberg is old, incompentent, and not as good at winning the independents.

Machines, machines, machines, and sectional rivalries. Reps want to win a Senate race in NJ? Run a Rino from North Jersey (not "Central Jersey". Real North Jersey.) and get the Dems to run someone from the South of the State who's made his career in part by attacking the corrupt North Jersey machines while glossing over the fact that the south is no different. Ie, Andrews.

[minionofmidas]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

Cockfighting is legal in New Mexico... and the "weak" stand, certainly, consists of buckling under and following 47 states into banning it.
Which won't happen as long as Albuquerque doesn't outvote the remainder of the state. Shame White is running in Albuquerque... elsewheres being against cockfighting would cost him votes.

[minionofmidas]

I say let the chicken choose whether to ban cockfighting or mass poultry farming. I know which would be banned.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I was thinking of this weird what-if where, in 2006, Foley doesn't cancel his reelection bid but instead breaks this story about Mahoney. (of course, it would have had to have developped further by then for this to be at ll possible) I'd've loved to see that bitchfest.

[minionofmidas]

On other thought: the DCCC has expended nearly $1 million in AZ-01 and they put up a new ad today. Is Sydney Hay holding up better than Randy Graf did?

AZ-01 is a bit different of a CD than AZ-08, imho.  Lots of moderate Republicans in AZ-08.  Of course, McCain here helps greatly.  But spending one million is a sign of something.  Especially when Fitzpatrick is not exactly short of funds.

On a completely different topic, one of the things that's annoying me this year is the increased reliance of pundits on *publicly released internals*.  To me, you only rely on them when the candidate is showing himself behind or something like that.  Any other reliance is just guessing (like my 5-point differential formula, which is probably garbage with most polls even).

Given the track record of the national and statewide parties in understanding this seat, I wouldn't attach any significance to what they do or think.

[minionofmidas]

NM-01* - White sucked as a candidate.
NM-02* - Tinsley sucked worse.
NV-03 - Porter couldn't survive what happened here upballot.

May be that White's *campaign* was bad, but the *candidate* was probably the best the GOP had to throw at this district - and that includes Wilson running again. But he couldn't survive what happened here upballot. Tinsley, of course, had geography issues - the normally Republican parts where the Dem was from are just more prone to swinging wildly than the normally Democratic parts where the Rep was from. The top off the ticket (read: weakness among Hispanics) also hurt like hell.