FiveThirtyEight Analysis: Don't Assume McDaniel Will Be Nominee

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Very good article.  I'd rate the runoff as a pure tossup, but I do know a lot of closeted Cochran fans (Democrats and Blacks) who will be coming out of the woodwork on June 24th.

People who didn't vote in either June 3 primary? If they voted in the Democratic primary, they can't vote this time, and if they didn't vote in either primary, why do they all-of-a-sudden care enough about Cochran if they didn't then?

I still hope Cochran pulls it out somehow, but I just don't see he's going to pull this off barring further scandal from McDaniel. Say what you will about Tea Partiers, they'll crawl over glass to vote for their people...

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If you didn't vote at all on June 3, you can vote in either runoff. You are only prevented from voting in the Republican runoff if you voted in the Democratic primary (or vice versa). How they enforce this beats me, since the only record is handwritten into a book.