Rate NE-02
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Poll
Question: Rate NE-02
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Tilt R		  
#5
Pure Tossup		  
#6
Tilt D		  
#7
Lean D		  
#8
Likely D		  
#9
Safe D		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 62

Author Topic: Rate NE-02  (Read 3139 times)
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
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United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -4.70

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« on: March 28, 2020, 03:07:27 PM »
?
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brucejoel99
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E: -3.48, S: -3.30

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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2020, 03:09:57 PM »
Tossup but closer to Tilt D than Tilt R.
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AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
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E: 1.42, S: -4.70

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« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2020, 03:12:30 PM »
I think that the district may be trending D so I said Tossup.
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2020, 03:22:19 PM »
Lean R
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morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2020, 04:08:42 PM »
Likely R
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Senator Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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E: -6.58, S: 0.00

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« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2020, 04:10:42 PM »
Tilt R.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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Jamaica
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E: -6.84, S: -0.17


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« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2020, 05:40:27 PM »
Tossup
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2020, 05:51:02 PM »
Tilt R but Biden should put resources here.  It would be easier for him to win NE-02 than to win FL.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2020, 05:52:41 PM »
Lean R, and DEFINITELY winnable. And worth putting effort into. People mocked Trump for putting effort into ME-02, but Biden definitely should not leave anything that's low cost and low effort like this on the table.
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here2view
YaBB God
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E: -2.13, S: -1.74

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« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2020, 05:54:34 PM »

A district that voted for Trump by 2 points is Likely R? Interesting.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2020, 08:11:21 PM »
Lean R
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2020, 09:29:34 PM »
Lean R.  Actually, I'd rate it Likely R.

NE-2 has gone Democratic only once; in 2008.  Not in 2000.  Not in 2012.  Not during the Clinton years.  And it has always been competitive in Congressional elections.  NE-02 did not elect a Democrat to Congress in 1974 (Watergate), and most of its Democrats have been weak sisters who beat lame Republicans.

This isn't even a tossup.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2020, 01:23:09 PM »
Quote from: A Brave Old Fuzzy Bear for a Brave New Atlas on March 28, 2020, 09:29:34 PM
Lean R.  Actually, I'd rate it Likely R.

NE-2 has gone Democratic only once; in 2008.  Not in 2000.  Not in 2012.  Not during the Clinton years.  And it has always been competitive in Congressional elections.  NE-02 did not elect a Democrat to Congress in 1974 (Watergate), and most of its Democrats have been weak sisters who beat lame Republicans.

This isn't even a tossup.

Damn, I was going to rate it Tilt D, but learning that the NE-02 of the 1970s (with entirely different district boundaries) didn’t vote Democratic in 1974 really made me change my mind. Stellar analysis.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2020, 01:29:51 PM »
Tilt D
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redjohn
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E: -3.35, S: -4.17

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« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2020, 01:31:45 PM »
Lean R. Biden's probably going to win the NPV by a point or two, which isn't nearly enough to start winning places like NE-02.
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Xing
xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2020, 02:19:57 PM »
How is a district that went from Romney +7 to Trump +2 Lean/Likely R? I’d say Tilt R at most.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2020, 06:36:57 PM »
Lean D.  More likely to flip than any other Trump EVs, except for PA and maybe AZ.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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E: -1.48, S: 3.91

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« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2020, 08:01:38 PM »
Likely R
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2020, 04:07:47 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on March 28, 2020, 05:52:41 PM
Lean R, and DEFINITELY winnable. And worth putting effort into. People mocked Trump for putting effort into ME-02, but Biden definitely should not leave anything that's low cost and low effort like this on the table.
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Perlen vor den Schweinen
kongress
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« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2020, 06:52:42 PM »
With the current state of the #trends of the US, I would say tossup. Whatever party wins the electoral college winner takes NE-02's electoral vote and the House seat too. If there's a split, it will be a very narrow difference.
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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E: 1.42, S: -4.70

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« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2020, 04:28:49 PM »
People forgot that trends are real.
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