OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Ohioguy29]

It's that time of the year again: time to read too much into early vote numbers and panic:

https://www.toledoblade.com/opinion/columnists/2018/10/19/blue-wave-early-voting-ohio-election/stories/20181018114?abnpageversion=evoke

(Seriously though, what's up with Cuyahoga.)

[libertpaulian]

WHY don't we have any quality polls on this race?!  Ohio is a key swing state, yet it's hardly been polled.

Yet, we'll get the ten thousandth poll showing Whitmer up by double-digits, or Laxalt and Sisolak trading leads, or Newsom on his way to victory...

[BuckeyeNut]

WHY don't we have any quality polls on this race?!  Ohio is a key swing state, yet it's hardly been polled.

Yet, we'll get the ten thousandth poll showing Whitmer up by double-digits, or Laxalt and Sisolak trading leads, or Newsom on his way to victory...

It’s getting rather late in the game for high quality polling to be conducted, unless something drops here in the second-to-last full week. Both Marist and Suffolk were active over the past month.

[Sestak]

Pet of it may also be that pollsters aren’t polling Gov-Sen states where only Gov is competitive...then again they’re polling WI so who knows.

[BuckeyeNut]

Voted by mail the other day, something that may help the downticket Democrats is that, on the actual ballot, they aren’t. Everyone who wants to vote for Sherrod will have to vote for Governor, AG, Auditor, SOS, and Treasurer first. Not sure if it was that way back in 2006 — when Democrats swept all the statewide offices except for Auditor — but if Sherrod is winning in the high single or low double digits, this should be something of a boon. I don’t see how very many people turning out to vote Democrat for Senator could skip FIVE whole races.

[ON Progressive]

I felt like I had to post this: https://twitter.com/Claydog_15/status/1055595655270285312

[Antonio the Sixth]

I felt like I had to post this: https://twitter.com/Claydog_15/status/1055595655270285312

WHAT

[BuckeyeNut]

Registered Democrat turnout has tripled in deep red but educated and wealthy Butler County, where Democrats have also doubled their share of the early vote.

[Ohioguy29]

https://twitter.com/ButlerDemocrats/status/1056137411439267841

Butler County deserves better.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/ButlerDemocrats/status/1056137411439267841

Butler County deserves better.

I think Democrats have about 30% chance of knocking her off. Which isn't great, but it's also about the same chance most people gave Trump. 10 roll of the dice, and we'd take Keller out thrice.

[Ohioguy29]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

[libertpaulian]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

Cordray needs every vote possible...

[Comrade Funk]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

That's not how gubernatorial elections work. 

[Ohioguy29]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

Cordray needs every vote possible...

I'd obviously like everyone who's voting for Brown to vote for Cordray. But in practice you can't convince everyone, and Ohioans love ticket splitting.

[Ohioguy29]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

That's not how gubernatorial elections work. 

What do you mean? That is indeed how gubernatorial elections work. Total number of statewide votes matters. How well you do in individual congressional districts is irrelevant unless you're running for Congress.

[BuckeyeNut]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

That's not how gubernatorial elections work. 

What do you mean? That is indeed how gubernatorial elections work. Total number of statewide votes matters. How well you do in individual congressional districts is irrelevant unless you're running for Congress.

Why are voting for DeWine???

Or are you saying you encountered Brown, DeWine, Pureval voters on the phone? I'm absolutely not surprised by the latter most.

[Ohioguy29]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

That's not how gubernatorial elections work. 

What do you mean? That is indeed how gubernatorial elections work. Total number of statewide votes matters. How well you do in individual congressional districts is irrelevant unless you're running for Congress.

Why are voting for DeWine???

Or are you saying you encountered Brown, DeWine, Pureval voters on the phone? I'm absolutely not surprised by the latter most.

Oh Lord, definitely the latter! I hate DeWine!

[Ohioguy29]

Steve Dettelbach talks about his Judaism and how state attorney generals can help combat hate groups:

https://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/09/i_declare_my_jewishness_in_res.html

[Comrade Funk]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

That's not how gubernatorial elections work. 

What do you mean? That is indeed how gubernatorial elections work. Total number of statewide votes matters. How well you do in individual congressional districts is irrelevant unless you're running for Congress.

Sorry was confused on what you were saying.

[Ohioguy29]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

That's not how gubernatorial elections work. 

What do you mean? That is indeed how gubernatorial elections work. Total number of statewide votes matters. How well you do in individual congressional districts is irrelevant unless you're running for Congress.

Sorry was confused on what you were saying.

You weren't the only one; the fault lies with me for being unclear.

[politicallefty]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

I don't get it either, but isn't that area of the state DeWine's political base? He did win Hamilton County in 2006 while losing by double digits statewide. Obviously, with the Southeastern part of the state going hard right, Cordray will almost certainly have to win Hamilton now if he's going to win. Where is Cordray's base though?

[cg41386]

Columbus, I think.

[BuckeyeNut]

Cordray’s base is the Columbus metro, DeWine’s base in the Dayton metro. Jon Husted, DeWine’s running mate, also has his base in the Dayton metro, while Betty Sutton, Cordray’s running mate, has her base in the Akron metro.

The AG’s race pits Cleveland metro’s own Democrat Steve Dettelbach against the Columbus metro’s Republican David Yost. In the Auditor’s race, both candidates are rural; Democrat Zack Space is from the Appalachian Southeast while Republican Keith Faber is from the Northwest Farmland. In the Secretary of State’s race, both Democrat Kathleen Clyde and Republican Frank LaRose are from the Akron metro. The Treasurer’s race pits Cincinnati metro Democrat Rob Richardson against Robert Sprague of the Northwest Farmlad.

DeWine winning Hamilton County in 2006 has little to do with his base being in the Southwest and everything to do with how damn rapidly the Cincinnati suburbs have changed. The last time Hamilton County went for a Democrat at the Presidential level before Obama was LBJ.

[politicallefty]

DeWine winning Hamilton County in 2006 has little to do with his base being in the Southwest and everything to do with how damn rapidly the Cincinnati suburbs have changed. The last time Hamilton County went for a Democrat at the Presidential level before Obama was LBJ.

That may be, but there's almost certainly bleed over between the Cincinnati and Dayton metros just as there is between Cleveland and Akron.

For such a polarized state, I am surprised to see the race deadlocked in the low 40s as opposed to the high 40s (like Florida when it was close). If we win the turnout race nationwide, I think we win OH-Gov by a couple points. Something really doesn't feel right about calling this race a toss-up. I'm wondering if Ohio could be the sleeper state that produces a massive Democratic resurgence.

[BuckeyeNut]

DeWine winning Hamilton County in 2006 has little to do with his base being in the Southwest and everything to do with how damn rapidly the Cincinnati suburbs have changed. The last time Hamilton County went for a Democrat at the Presidential level before Obama was LBJ.

That may be, but there's almost certainly bleed over between the Cincinnati and Dayton metros just as there is between Cleveland and Akron.

For such a polarized state, I am surprised to see the race deadlocked in the low 40s as opposed to the high 40s (like Florida when it was close). If we win the turnout race nationwide, I think we win OH-Gov by a couple points. Something really doesn't feel right about calling this race a toss-up. I'm wondering if Ohio could be the sleeper state that produces a massive Democratic resurgence.

Eeeeh. Not exactly. Cleveland-Akron overlap because they're part of the same media market. Dayton and Cincinnati are not. DeWine might do a bit better in Warren than he would otherwise, but any local boost won't actually carry over into Hamilton County.

And I would not count on it. Ohio remains very elastic, but the efforts of the coordinated campaign seem to be making nobody happy here. Which is the same as it was in 2016, and the same as it was in 2014. I expect some bright spots next Tuesday, and Sherrod will obviously be winning re-election, but I am not getting my hopes up. Better to be pleasantly surprised than crushed.