A good report, but no POTUS had been reelected since FDR with unemployment above 7.2%.
The problem with this statement is that Reagan didn't
barely win with 7.2% unemployment. He won in an absolute 59% to 41% blowout as you are well aware. I think you would certainly agree that Reagan could have won narrowly with significantly higher unemployment. The more appropriate question to ask is what unemployment rate would have turned 1984 into a 2004 style win for the incumbent. That is the number Obama is playing against this time, and it is surely higher than 7.2%.
