2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[darklordoftech]

Here is another bold prediction: Assemblyman John Wisniewski will either be 3rd place in the June 6 primary or drop out all together. He has not run a good campaign. I live in his legislative district, I have not seen so much support in his Middlesex County base. He was supposed to be the progressive alternative to a Democratic establishment Murphy, and Wisniewski is pretty popular in my district. He's won reelection since 1995. He has not put up a TV/Internet ad as of April, and time runs out in N.J. politics in the spring, because once it hits May, everyone focuses on heading to the Jersey Shore or the Morristown Green to kickoff springtime/summertime weather.

Jim Johnson is gaining in the election. He's well-educated, black (could do well in Essex and Union, Camden counties). Wisniewski is a bland white blue-collar progressive male from Middlesex County.

Wisniewski better get his campaign running strong or else Johnson will be in 2nd place in the primary.

As someone who hates Wisniewski and who's mother went to high school with Johnson, I hope your prediction comes true.

neither of these words has any tangible meaning

This can't be repeated enough.

[darklordoftech]

Honestly, I wouldn't want to see either Wiz or Murphy governing my birth state.

What exactly do you have against Wiz?

The red light cameras were his idea.

[darklordoftech]

I'm afraid that a higher minimum wage will make it harder for teenagers to get jobs and I'm afraid that Murphy will raise the smoking age and school leaving age, but I want marijuana legalized.

[darklordoftech]

I'm afraid that a higher minimum wage will make it harder for teenagers to get jobs and I'm afraid that Murphy will raise the smoking age and school leaving age, but I want marijuana legalized.

Is this actually looking likely in NJ, or is it just another case of a small band of lawmakers getting together to push a doomed effort to legalize? Given NJ's budget issues, I'd like to think there is a future for reform there.

Murphy has said he wants to legalize, and the State Assembly and State Senate are controlled by the Democrats...

[darklordoftech]

I'm glad Johnson got second. Wiz sucked.

Agreed. Wiz is too authoritarian for my liking. He wanted drinking coffee while driving to count as a DUI.

[darklordoftech]

I'm afraid that a higher minimum wage will make it harder for teenagers to get jobs and I'm afraid that Murphy will raise the smoking age and school leaving age, but I want marijuana legalized.

I understand the concerns about minimum wage increases, but why is raising the smoking age and school leave age bad things?

For one, higher school leaving age = dependency on parents for longer and less teenagers employed = more whining about lazy youth. Also, more people in school means more people who our taxpayer dollars have to go to.

[darklordoftech]

I'm glad Johnson got second. Wiz sucked.

Agreed. Wiz is too authoritarian for my liking. He wanted drinking coffee while driving to count as a DUI.

How on earth is that a position that anyone in America has? WTF?

http://www.nj.com/traffic/index.ssf/2016/08/plan_to_ban_coffee_from_nj_drivers_hands_would_be_strongest_in_nation.html

[darklordoftech]

Just put a GCS poll of this race in the field. Will report results when I have them.

My analysis of this race going forward:

-Guadagno's pro-choice and strongly anti-gas tax positions will keep her competitive in Somerset and Middlesex counties and will help her hold Monmouth, and her rebuking of Trump will help her stay above water in Morris County, though I anticipate Morris will be closer than ever before.

-Guadagno's support of school choice and strong anti-sanctuary cities position - in addition to general disapproval of Christie/GOP in general - will give Murphy the opportunity to run up potentially historic margins in Camden, Essex and Hudson counties that Guadagno likely won't be able to overcome.

-George Norcross, who essentially runs the state of NJ, supports Murphy but was very clearly intent on running Steve Sweeney before Murphy boxed him out of the primary. Norcross will still deliver the South Jersey vote for Murphy, but Norcross is not used to not getting what he wants. If the margins are smaller than average it could represent remaining animosity that could foreshadow Trenton gridlock between Murphy allies and Norcross allies.

Has Guadagno taken a stance for or against LGBT rights?

[darklordoftech]

Lol, Guadagno completely throws Christie under the bus.

Business that depend on beach tourism are mad at Christie, so she might be trying to get their votes.

[darklordoftech]

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/New-Jersey-Raises-Minimum-Smoking-Age-to-21-435864343.html

I wonder if Christie was trying to prevent Murphy from promising to do this if he's elected.