NC-PPP: Paul, Christie, Cruz trails hard, Bush & Huck slightly ahead (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 19, 2024, 03:21:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NC-PPP: Paul, Christie, Cruz trails hard, Bush & Huck slightly ahead (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NC-PPP: Paul, Christie, Cruz trails hard, Bush & Huck slightly ahead  (Read 1234 times)
illegaloperation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 777


« on: September 17, 2014, 03:52:19 PM »

This is a poll of likely 2014 voters.

North Carolina is a state where the midterm electorate is very different from the presidential year electorate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/29/upshot/why-the-democrats-turnout-problem-is-worst-in-north-carolina.html
Logged
illegaloperation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 777


« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2014, 05:26:47 PM »

How do we know that they used the likely voter model to estimate the 2016 turn out in this poll? That's pure speculation in my view and probably false. Why couldn't they have asked all respondents this question? After all, they don't estimate the likely voter turnout until after the poll has been executed. When they ask a question related to 2016, there's no reason they'll spend heaps of resources to use a 2014 electorate to calculate such an outcome instead of just using the raw numbers.

"PPP surveyed 1,266 likely voters from September 11th to 14th."

And since the focal point of the poll is the senate race, the likely voters are of the senate race.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.017 seconds with 12 queries.