Australia, Queensland - 21 March 2009

[Smid]

Election has just been called. Am having lunch and then will find some info for you.

[Hash]

The ALP seemed to have a very large lead in the last (pre-New Years) poll I found online over the LNP. Is that holding up?

[Smid]

Hashemite, I don't know if there's been a poll since the Newspoll 17 December last year, it's probably the one you saw:

http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=latest&state=Any&mode=file&page=Search - from here you'll have to click on the poll you want.

On Saturday, Queensland lost it's AAA credit rating, so this may have an impact not yet seen in the polls.

Here is the Courier Mail's coverage of the election:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/indepth/date/0,,5018787,00.html
The Courier Mail is the predominant newspaper for the state.
The LNP is doing well on their online poll, which may not mean anything.

Anthony Green is the ABC's psephologist, and one of the best in Australia. His blog/election analysis website is here:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/ (if you drop the "/qld/2009/" bit you get all the elections over the last few years).

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I seem to have read this screenplay before. ALP Premier calls an early election, either suffers a major swing against her, or consequently loses government. I don't expect the latter to occur to the Bligh Government, who are in a superior position despite the recent economic downturn, however, I do expect the Springborg led Nationals to secure a modest swing.

[Smid]

Conor, Green's analysis is about as thorough as it gets and I don't think there's anything I could really add to it (although I think that Cleveland is slightly more LNP than his modelling suggests - I won't go into it unless you want me to). However he makes the interesting point about female Premiers in Australia - there have been three: Kirner, Lawrence and now Bligh. In each case, they had never faced the electorate as Leader, they stepped in when a long-running Premier retired mid-term. In the previous two cases, the Labor Government was on the nose and they lost their first election as Premier. I guess the Chief Minister up in the Northern Territory was the one exception to the rule.

Labor has a plethora of MPs which will probably be hard to dislodge - he makes the point about so called "oncers" who hang on. Queensland politics is very different to politics in other states. We like our incumbents and it's something of a cliche, but it's almost like it isn't a general election: it's more like 89 separate by-elections affected vastly by local issues.

[Harry Hayfield]

Will the recent flooding be brought up as an issue by the Greens?

[Hash]

Conor, Green's analysis is about as thorough as it gets and I don't think there's anything I could really add to it (although I think that Cleveland is slightly more LNP than his modelling suggests - I won't go into it unless you want me to). However he makes the interesting point about female Premiers in Australia - there have been three: Kirner, Lawrence and now Bligh. In each case, they had never faced the electorate as Leader, they stepped in when a long-running Premier retired mid-term. In the previous two cases, the Labor Government was on the nose and they lost their first election as Premier. I guess the Chief Minister up in the Northern Territory was the one exception to the rule.

Labor has a plethora of MPs which will probably be hard to dislodge - he makes the point about so called "oncers" who hang on. Queensland politics is very different to politics in other states. We like our incumbents and it's something of a cliche, but it's almost like it isn't a general election: it's more like 89 separate by-elections affected vastly by local issues.

The Newspoll seems to suggest that Labor's 2PP ratings (57%) would actually improve on its 2006 2PP result (55%). But then, it's a poll from December, so a lot of things may have changed.

[Smid]

Will the recent flooding be brought up as an issue by the Greens?

Possibly, but probably not - it happens often enough. Dorothea MacKellar's poem, My Country made reference to "droughts and flooding rains" and that was a long time before climate change was even contemplated.

Conor, Green's analysis is about as thorough as it gets and I don't think there's anything I could really add to it (although I think that Cleveland is slightly more LNP than his modelling suggests - I won't go into it unless you want me to). However he makes the interesting point about female Premiers in Australia - there have been three: Kirner, Lawrence and now Bligh. In each case, they had never faced the electorate as Leader, they stepped in when a long-running Premier retired mid-term. In the previous two cases, the Labor Government was on the nose and they lost their first election as Premier. I guess the Chief Minister up in the Northern Territory was the one exception to the rule.

Labor has a plethora of MPs which will probably be hard to dislodge - he makes the point about so called "oncers" who hang on. Queensland politics is very different to politics in other states. We like our incumbents and it's something of a cliche, but it's almost like it isn't a general election: it's more like 89 separate by-elections affected vastly by local issues.

The Newspoll seems to suggest that Labor's 2PP ratings (57%) would actually improve on its 2006 2PP result (55%). But then, it's a poll from December, so a lot of things may have changed.

I saw a new Newspoll in The Australian today (although it's not up on the Newspoll website yet, it looks like it might possibly be online at The Australian's website). The latest poll puts the LNP up four points since the last one.

2PP
53-47 to Labor (last poll, 57-43 to Labor)

primary vote
LNP 41% (+4%)
Labor 42% (-3%)
Greens 7% (-1%)
Family First <0.5%
Others 10%
(I have no idea who "the others" are, but there are a couple of popular independents, possibly One Nation, but they imploded and so did their subsequent parties so I'd be very surprised if it was them pushing the number up).

(http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-q-24feb.pdf)

I found an article listing twelve key seats and discussing them: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/twelve-seats-to-watch/2009/02/23/1235237524513.html

[minionofmidas]

Labor has a plethora of MPs which will probably be hard to dislodge - he makes the point about so called "oncers" who hang on.

Not sure what that means - explain to a dumb foreigner, plz!

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[minionofmidas]

Lol, there's an electorate on the Gold Coast called "Surfers' Paradise"!

[Verily]

Lol, there's an electorate on the Gold Coast called "Surfers' Paradise"!

It's a town

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surfers_Paradise,_Queensland

[minionofmidas]

I also like the name of the Labor MP (MLA? whatev.) for Brisbane Central - Grace Grace.

[Smid]

Labor has a plethora of MPs which will probably be hard to dislodge - he makes the point about so called "oncers" who hang on.

Not sure what that means - explain to a dumb foreigner, plz!

Sorry, just noticed the question.

By a "oncer" I am referring to someone who isn't expected to hang onto the seat, a one-termer. It's like in 2006 when a couple of Republican congresspeople were caught up in that scandal and the Democrats won a couple of districts that they normally wouldn't win. After the election, people believed the Republicans would gain some of those districts back in 2008. There are probably people out there talking about that Democrat elected in that Idaho Congressional District the same way. "He won it in 2008, but won't be coming back after 2010" translates to "he's a oncer."

The oncers in Queensland were elected in the 2001 election, in which the Liberal Party was reduced to just three seats. Indooroopilly is typically a fairly liberal-voting electorate, but the MP has hung on through the 2004 and 2006 elections. In Clayfield, another liberal area, the MP was returned in 2004 and then did such a bad job as a Minister that she was dumped by the electorate in 2006 (and may still have won if it wasn't for the fact that a popular local city councillor was her opponent). Most of the Labor MPs on the Gold Coast were all considered oncers when they were first elected, but have stubbornly held on. The same could have been said for the MPs on the Sunshine Coast, but the Traverston Dam issue cost the Government those electorates (and with it the whole Cate Molloy floor crossing thing).

Lol, there's an electorate on the Gold Coast called "Surfers' Paradise"!

It's a town

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surfers_Paradise,_Queensland

Surfers Paradise is great for the Liberal Party, but I find that end of the Gold Coast far too commercialised. Indeed, my brother who does surf, says most surfers hate it because it's so crowded and touristy. My family always holidayed around Burleigh/Palm Beach, which is still quite developed, but certainly better. I grew up on the southern outskirts of Brisbane, about a half hour to forty-five minute drive from Surfers, straight down the highway.

Don't get me wrong, though - Surfers can be pretty great. The casino is there (first casino in Australia, although obviously there are others now) with all the entertainment shows and restaurants to go with it. Hotel Versace is gorgeous (not that I've ever actually been inside) and right next to it is the best fish and chips shop in, well, possibly the world. It's right where the trawlers come in and you pick out your fish and you can buy your prawns (shrimp) or whatever there. You can buy fish to take home or get them to cook it then and there as fish and chips. It's right out of this little shack type place. I'll see if I can find a picture... http://www.petersfish.com.au/aboutpeters.php

Here's a blog about someone's visit to it (the first photo is the shack that it runs out of... picture this next to six-star Versace Hotel) - http://preciouspea.blogspot.com/2008/09/peters-fish-market.html

I also like the name of the Labor MP (MLA? whatev.) for Brisbane Central - Grace Grace.

In Queensland, they all use MP, although MLA is probably more accurate. Queensland is the only unicameral Parliament in Australia, having abolished the Upper House back in the 1920s. The Upper House was the Legislative Council and the Lower House was the Legsilative Assembly, so MLAs are literally Members of the Legislative Assembly. Even in states with both houses, Members of both houses will frequently use MP, regardless of whether they're Upper House or Lower House. Most will differentiate (in my experience at least) not by the terms "MLA" or "MLC" but by "Upper House Member of Parliament" or "Lower House Member of Parliament" when they're talking (as in "I'm your Upper House Member of Parliament" - although "Lower House MP" is typically used by an Upper House MP talking about a Lower House MP... most Lower House MPs just call themself "I'm your local MP") and all use MP after their name.

Brisbane Central was Peter Beattie's electorate until he retired as Premier last year and vacated the seat. Grace Grace won the seat in the subsequent by-election.

[minionofmidas]

I've just read up on Queensland's state government history. Fascinating.

[Smid]

I've just read up on Queensland's state government history. Fascinating.

We've got some pretty interesting history - the long-running governments, the first Labor Government anywhere in the world (Al would probably be prouder of that than I am), that story about how they abolished the Upper House (because it kept blocking what the Government wanted to do) was pretty interesting. They stacked the Upper House with people who wanted to abolish it and then voted themselves out of existance... they were called the "suicide squad" for that reason. NSW watched us do it, and then increased the size of their Upper House to create vacancies and try the same thing... but once they got their nice "appointed for life" seats, they had a change of heart.

There is information available for download about the abolition of the Legislative Council available here:

http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/historical/legislativeCouncil.asp (down the bottom)

The whole Sir Joh thing was interesting, too. There's the gerrymanders that meant rural seats had less voters than urban seats, benefiting Sir Joh's Country/National Party. Apparently there would be the occasional Labor-voting town out there (usually mining towns) which would be lumped together, like islands within a larger electorate because the National Party MP didn't want them in his electorate.

A story you may not have seen... there was a Member of Parliament who died of a heart attack one night in the spa at Parliament House and wasn't found until morning. I've gone looking for information for you and just found that it was actually the sauna, not the spa, but you get the idea:

http://www.adb.online.anu.edu.au/biogs/A170595b.htm
http://matthewcondon.blogspot.com/2006/05/spit-fight.html

Here is some more info about Queensland Parliamentary History:

http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/historical/electionsReferendums.asp

[minionofmidas]

We've got some pretty interesting history - the long-running governments, the first Labor Government anywhere in the world (Al would probably be prouder of that than I am), that story about how they abolished the Upper House (because it kept blocking what the Government wanted to do) was pretty interesting. They stacked the Upper House with people who wanted to abolish it and then voted themselves out of existance... they were called the "suicide squad" for that reason. NSW watched us do it, and then increased the size of their Upper House to create vacancies and try the same thing... but once they got their nice "appointed for life" seats, they had a change of heart.

The British Government threatened to do something like that... I forget for which 19th or early 20th century reform package... got the Lords to aquiesce by the force of threat alone, though.

My own reading began only post WWII, though.

So what's your opinion of Sir Johannes?

[Smid]

Labor's internal polling must be worse than the public polls, or there'd be no way the Premier would be trying this sort of campaign policy:

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25122404-952,00.html

This sort of thing always goes down well among Aussies, since most people think politicians are over-paid, but it's usually when someone is trying to gain traction - Mark Latham promised to abolish politicians' superannuation when he was Opposition Leader, so Howard ended up going through with it to prevent Latham from gaining under it. It's usually a fairly desperate policy.

[Smid]

Anthony Green has posted on his blog about a number of seats in which Independents could affect the outcome, as Queensland uses Optional Preferential, which in many cases can make the election more like FPTP with people choosing to just vote 1.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/03/the-perils-of-v.html#more

[Smid]

Polling figures show a strengthening of conservative support for the LNP (Liberal National Party).

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25143651-952,00.html

[Smid]

Latest polls:

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25190787-952,00.html

Still ultra-close.

And a discussion of the campaign thus far:

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25184007-5018787,00.html

[Platypus]

How do you think the Moreton Bay incident is playing out? Good for the greens and the LNP?

[Smid]

How do you think the Moreton Bay incident is playing out? Good for the greens and the LNP?

The Moreton Bay oil spill has been devestating for the wildlife living in the bay, and the scenes of pelicans being scrubbed is heartbreaking.

That this oil spill has occurred during an election campaign means that there are political ramifications, which I have considered but haven't been my focus.

According to the last article I posted, the Labor Party is not looking too good because of the slow response in handling this (probably somewhat unfair - there were cyclonic seas and the ship had lost containers of ammonium nitrate overboard - and don't forget that ammonium nitrate + fuel oil = two things... the explosives used in mining and the explosives used in the Oklahoma City Bombing... ie - very dangerous situation and I think the priority was not placing lives at risk).

Any environmental catastrophy like this is going to focus attention on the Greens, who may pick up a percent or two out of it. The LNP may gain some votes because of Labor's perceived mismanagement of the accident (and the LNP always does well on "management" issues - they're polling well on health because it's being seen as a management/mismanagement issue rather than a health funding issue).

The additional oil leak from the ship after being moored in the Brisbane River is more likely to emphasise mismanagement issues and this may benefit the LNP.

I don't know how far the spill has reached - last I read, it was 60km, stretching from the southern end of the bay to the southern end of the Sunshine Coast, although I think the affect on the bay has predominantly been the seaward side of the bay islands.

The following booth result links are all last election and there's been a redistribution in the interim, so take them with a grain of salt (and in some cases don't look at overall results, look at specific booths). From South to North:

Redlands is presently held by the Labor Party (6.8%), but has previously been National Party. Demographic change has seen some small farms (predominantly strawberries) sold and developed into housing, probably benefiting the ALP, although it has performed strongly for the conservatives federally (Bowman). It's one of those sorts of "change of government" seats - possibly in a fifty-fifty election with no incumbent effect, it might be lean conservative and about a percent inside the necessary change of government swing. Depending on the spill and the currents, its beaches (read: mudflats) may have been affected. http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/state2006/results/booth69.html

Cleveland is presently a marginal seat held by the Labor Party (1.3%). It was extremely close last election. I have contacts in the area who say that they believe the notion calculation from the redistribution was off because it lost a Labor booth (Thornlands or Thornside, I forget which) to Capalaba and picked up a booth from Redlands. Redlands was contested by a conservative independent last election who split the vote, so the result at the booth it gained was probably less than would typically be the case, making it more marginal or possibly even notionally LNP. Temper this with the fact that it was a retiring MP last election and so has a new incumbent who has had two-and-a-half years to build a profile and the LNP candidate last election was a well-known local identity (who I think was a local councillor) and therefore had a name profile. That sort of thing could be worth four percent or so (perhaps more, perhaps less, depending on how hard the new MP has worked). This seat has North Stradbroke Island in the electorate - and while I don't know which bay islands have been affected, I would be very surprised if it was one that wasn't... Cleveland was one of the strongest conservative areas in Bowman, and contains fairly extensive canal estates (ie houses with a street on one side, a canal on the other and a boat moored at a personal pier attached to the back yard...) It was always a seat I suspected would swing LNP this election, but we'll wait and see how it plays out. I think the two booths on Stradbroke are reasonably strong ALP (Amity Point and Dunwich, http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/state2006/results/booth22.html). Surprisingly strong preference flow Greens to Liberal last election...

Redcliffe is presently held by the Labor Party by the former Mayor of the area (6%). There is some discontent over council mergers here. It was won by the Liberals during the 2005 by-election on an 8% (or thereabouts) swing, but swung back at the GE in 2006. For many years it was held by Liberal leader Terry White (of Terry White Chemists) - the chap who tore up the Coalition Agreement in 1983 over Joh's refusal to form an expenditure review committee, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensland_general_election,_1983 . The LNP is promising to build a rail line out to Redcliffe - something that's been promised by just about every government for nigh on 150 years (bear in mind that Queensland celebrates 150 years of self-government this year). Moreton Island is in this electorate and certainly has been affected by the oil spill. Moreton Island is predominantly wilderness, however and has only one booth (Tangalooma, representing 0.18% of the electorate - a mere 43 formal votes last election). http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/state2006/results/booth68.html

Pumicestone is a Labor held seat within the swing required to change government (5.4%). In 1998, the Parliamentary leader of One Nation held this seat for one term. in the western end, it's got Caboolture which typically goes Labor. In the east it has the southern end of Bribie Island, which (judging from the real estate adverts on tv up there) has a fair swag of retirees living in houses backing onto golf courses designed by Greg Norman. I think there are also some canal estates around Banksi Beach. Going back 20 years and Bribie Island was just beach shacks used as weekenders but it's a bit more affluent now and there are houses facing the ocean... which would certainly be affected by this. http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/state2006/results/booth67.html

Glasshouse doesn't have ocean views, but reaches the top reaches of the Pumicestone Passage. It's ultra marginal, the incumbent had a hissy fit about the redistribution and packed up for a safer seat. I think the redistribution made it notionally LNP (about a seven percent swing on redistribution). This seat was always likely to be gained by the LNP. The oilspill probably won't influence it much more than any other seat, but it's likely to go LNP regardless. http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/state2006/results/booth32.html - these figures show it as 7% Labor, but redistribution makes it notionally 0.1% LNP.

Cleveland is the seat of a former Liberal Leader, Mark McArdle. He's a Shadow Minister now, but I'm too lazy to look up his portfolio. It lost some safer conservative booths in the redistribution, but is still LNP (1.9%). Takes in the top half of Bribie Island and also some mainland beachfront north of the island. This is the southern end of the Sunshine Coast.

All Sunshine Coast seats north of this are safe LNP (except Nicklin, where a conservative independent got about 75% of the vote last election). Labor won some of them in the 2001 election, but they all swung back over the Traveston Dam issue last election and are still in a Labor-hating mood. The only interesting one is Noosa, where the Labor incumbent (0.5% following 2001 election, 8.5% after 2004) crossed the floor and became an independent over the dam. She split the Labor vote, handing the seat to the Liberal, Glenn Elmes despite his low primary vote. Labor booths were redistributed into Maroochydore, so he's actually safer now. The former member is running again, but she got thumped federally and again at the council elections last March, so I'd be surprised if she gets her deposit back.

Here are some maps:
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/profiles/region2.html - Redlands and Cleveland
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/profiles/region1.html - Redcliffe
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/profiles/region7.html - Sunshine Coast seats (Pumicestone and north)

You can click on the names of electorates below the maps to see a more detailed map, but you're better off visiting:

http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/2009/indexPage.html - uses Google Maps, and now updated to show polling booth locations.

[Smid]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25190352-5006786,00.html

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Here's the link to Graham Young's website:

http://whatthepeoplewant.nationalforum.com.au/archives/003510.html

He gives an overview of the ads, and the links above the ads lead to a new page which discusses the ad in a little more depth and provides focus group comments about the ad (and you can watch the YouTube video of it).

[Smid]

For anyone interested, this link showed up in my google alerts this morning: http://www.tallyroom.com.au/887

[Hash]

For anyone interested, this link showed up in my google alerts this morning: http://www.tallyroom.com.au/887

Trugarez! That's a great blog.

Anyways. I entered the latest polling 2PP figures into ABC's calc applet and it sez Labour 48, LNP 37, Others 4.

LNP needs 53.2% 2PP to win outright, 52.9% LNP on 2PP gives a hung parliament. Doesn't factor in how indies might vote (IIRC, a few are close to the LNP-indies, like in Gladstone).