PA: Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research Trump + 4

[2016]

🟥 Trump: 49% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 45%

https://t.co/joSqGgbKPE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah sure, Biden isn't losing PA with Bob Casey it's within the MOE our Early vote and we outvoted Rs 950/750K on April 23rd now I know all these polls are jinx

[Matty]

This is a legit bad poll for Biden in my view.

AARP is generally a d-leaning outlet and their polls in 2020 had a D bias

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is a legit bad poll for Biden in my view.

AARP is generally a d-leaning outlet and their polls in 2020 had a D bias

The 22 poll had Fetterman +2 and that was before the debate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a legit bad poll for Biden in my view.

AARP is generally a d-leaning outlet and their polls in 2020 had a D bias

Lol it's MOE 4 pts just 🛑🛑🛑

Trump isn't leading outside the MOE in any 303 even AZ is 6% Rs thinks it's so terrible that Biden is losing MOE

[wbrocks67]

So I'll be called a hack by the usual suspects, but a few things here-

Their final 2022 poll was... not great. Not horrible, but they seriously missed in some groups. They had Independents going Oz +7, when the final result was Fetterman +20. Seems same thing is happening here with Trump +10 among Independents (very unlikely)

Feels like a lot of Dixiecrats here too. Biden's fav/approval among *Democrats* is +36 and +40. That's like 68/32 and 70/30 territory, which is clearly unrealistic and not borne out anywhere else. 80/20 is realistic, but 30% disapproving isn't something we've seen anywhere else.

Trump sure as hell is not tied in the PA suburbs.

And Biden and Trump's net favorabilities do not have a *15%* difference (-23 vs. -8) come on now.

It even only has Casey at 86% of Democrats (vs Bidens 84%), that's oddly low consolidation.

It also only has Shapiro even at 49/30 fav, which is also the lowest I've seen for him to date.

[RI]

This poll seems to have more realistic age and race splits than most. Trump is outrunning McCormick most dramatically with non-college voters, older voters, and non-suburban voters (i.e. both urban and rural). Not a big split among older black voters or those with degrees. Trump outrunning McCormick with men and women about equally.

[wbrocks67]

This poll seems to have more realistic age and race splits than most.

50+, but not <50 - Biden basically duplicating 2020 #s among older voters here, but <50 is where the issue is, which would not be surprising given the age issues in other polls as well.

2020 exit poll:
18-44: Biden +24, 61-37
45+: Trump +12, 56-44

Poll:
18-49: Biden +3, 48-45
50+: Trump +10, 52-42

[Skill and Chance]

Setting the toplines aside because internal, this poll is consistent with a trend left in PA.  The same pollster just found roughly the same margins in PA and MN at roughly the same time.  It's the one swing state I'm legit optimistic about for Biden, largely because it does capture some core NE "everyone went to college" suburbs.

[wbrocks67]

Urban
2020 exit poll: Biden +50 (74-24)
2024 poll: Biden +22 (56-38)

Suburban
2020 exit poll: Trump +3 (51-48)
2024 poll: tie (47-47)

Rural
2020 exit poll: Trump +39 (69-30)
2024 poll: Trump +36 (65-29)

lmao, same results basically as 2020 (3% better in both suburbs and rural for Biden, actually) but a 28% drop for Biden in urban areas. Haven't seen this at all before this cycle!!

[kwabbit]

Setting the toplines aside because internal, this poll is consistent with a trend left in PA.  The same pollster just found roughly the same margins in PA and MN at roughly the same time.  It's the one swing state I'm legit optimistic about for Biden, largely because it does capture some core NE "everyone went to college" suburbs.

It's not an internal. It's a joint poll conducted by an R pollster, Fabrizio, and a D pollster, Impact Research, on behalf of AARP. They had a series of them last cycle, where they were decent but not amazing.

Fabrizio operates alone for Trump, that is a lot different than in a joint poll, which is a pretty common setup for neutral polls to give them credibility across the political spectrum.

[Skill and Chance]

Setting the toplines aside because internal, this poll is consistent with a trend left in PA.  The same pollster just found roughly the same margins in PA and MN at roughly the same time.  It's the one swing state I'm legit optimistic about for Biden, largely because it does capture some core NE "everyone went to college" suburbs.

It's not an internal. It's a joint poll conducted by an R pollster, Fabrizio, and a D pollster, Impact Research, on behalf of AARP. They had a series of them last cycle, where they were decent but not amazing.

Fabrizio operates alone for Trump, that is a lot different than in a joint poll, which is a pretty common setup for neutral polls to give them credibility across the political spectrum.

OK nevermind then.  That's actually quite significant.  If this poll is in fact non-partisan, this puts it squarely within "Republican version of 2008" world. 

[henster]

His JA in the poll is 36/59 so not far from where he's at nationally (38/56 from 538 aggregate). At the end of the day if his JA is sub 40% come ED he is not going to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden is up 1 in AZ he isn't losing PA, that's why I say stop worrying

[Skill and Chance]

If Biden is up 1 in AZ he isn't losing PA, that's why I say stop worrying

Biden is up 1 in AZ in his single best poll of the past 6 months amid a sea of Trump +4-6 polls. 

Also, AZ has about nothing to do with PA politically.  It isn't really correlated with any of the swing states other than NV. 

[Dan the Roman]

Setting the toplines aside because internal, this poll is consistent with a trend left in PA.  The same pollster just found roughly the same margins in PA and MN at roughly the same time.  It's the one swing state I'm legit optimistic about for Biden, largely because it does capture some core NE "everyone went to college" suburbs.

It's not an internal. It's a joint poll conducted by an R pollster, Fabrizio, and a D pollster, Impact Research, on behalf of AARP. They had a series of them last cycle, where they were decent but not amazing.

Fabrizio operates alone for Trump, that is a lot different than in a joint poll, which is a pretty common setup for neutral polls to give them credibility across the political spectrum.

OK nevermind then.  That's actually quite significant.  If this poll is in fact non-partisan, this puts it squarely within "Republican version of 2008" world. 

As the "Republican version of 2008" is probably what we would have with "Generic Republican" v Biden this year(see the polls with Haley up double-digits) I have a theory the order in which you ask the Trump trial/Biden issue approval questions may well be able to shift those groups without necessarily indicating a terrible sample.

[henster]

If Biden is up 1 in AZ he isn't losing PA, that's why I say stop worrying

Biden is up 1 in AZ in his single best poll of the past 6 months amid a sea of Trump +4-6 polls. 

Also, AZ has about nothing to do with PA politically.  It isn't really correlated with any of the swing states other than NV. 

Not to mention his vote share in that AZ poll is 39% with neither candidate cracking 40%, very unlikely toplines.

[President Johnson]

Urban
2020 exit poll: Biden +50 (74-24)
2024 poll: Biden +22 (56-38)

Suburban
2020 exit poll: Trump +3 (51-48)
2024 poll: tie (47-47)

Rural
2020 exit poll: Trump +39 (69-30)
2024 poll: Trump +36 (65-29)

lmao, same results basically as 2020 (3% better in both suburbs and rural for Biden, actually) but a 28% drop for Biden in urban areas. Haven't seen this at all before this cycle!!

Valid points. I also doubt Biden has lost ground in the suburbs. Trump is even more toxic today than he was in 2020.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's certainly not a good poll for Biden.  Toss it in the average with the rest.

[Vern]

If Biden is up 1 in AZ he isn't losing PA, that's why I say stop worrying

Biden is not up in Arizona just because one pole said it. That one poll is an outlier.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everytime Biden does well in polls, the AZ polls is splendid news, a poll pops up with Trump winning, but we know what's happening in CRT, voters are t gonna stand for a J6 Trump

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Urban
2020 exit poll: Biden +50 (74-24)
2024 poll: Biden +22 (56-38)

Suburban
2020 exit poll: Trump +3 (51-48)
2024 poll: tie (47-47)

Rural
2020 exit poll: Trump +39 (69-30)
2024 poll: Trump +36 (65-29)

lmao, same results basically as 2020 (3% better in both suburbs and rural for Biden, actually) but a 28% drop for Biden in urban areas. Haven't seen this at all before this cycle!!

That's what i've been telling people for quite some time. It's really people in urban areas that'll just stay home. If less people in urban votes where Biden can crank up the vote turn out, there will be less votes to overcome the disadvantage in non-urban areas.

urban areas is where the young people, afro-americans etc all live. It's there the issue lays for Biden. every poll shows this over & over again.

Biden really isn't a good fit for urban USA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Urban
2020 exit poll: Biden +50 (74-24)
2024 poll: Biden +22 (56-38)

Suburban
2020 exit poll: Trump +3 (51-48)
2024 poll: tie (47-47)

Rural
2020 exit poll: Trump +39 (69-30)
2024 poll: Trump +36 (65-29)

lmao, same results basically as 2020 (3% better in both suburbs and rural for Biden, actually) but a 28% drop for Biden in urban areas. Haven't seen this at all before this cycle!!

That's what i've been telling people for quite some time. It's really people in urban areas that'll just stay home. If less people in urban votes where Biden can crank up the vote turn out, there will be less votes to overcome the disadvantage in non-urban areas.

urban areas is where the young people, afro-americans etc all live. It's there the issue lays for Biden. every poll shows this over & over again.

Biden really isn't a good fit for urban USA.

Lol we outvoted Rs in PA last Tues Aor 23rd when you weren't here 900/700K and it's a poll of MOE 4%, it's the same as the MN poll that has Trump up 4 same pollster

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Urban
2020 exit poll: Biden +50 (74-24)
2024 poll: Biden +22 (56-38)

Suburban
2020 exit poll: Trump +3 (51-48)
2024 poll: tie (47-47)

Rural
2020 exit poll: Trump +39 (69-30)
2024 poll: Trump +36 (65-29)

lmao, same results basically as 2020 (3% better in both suburbs and rural for Biden, actually) but a 28% drop for Biden in urban areas. Haven't seen this at all before this cycle!!

That's what i've been telling people for quite some time. It's really people in urban areas that'll just stay home. If less people in urban votes where Biden can crank up the vote turn out, there will be less votes to overcome the disadvantage in non-urban areas.

urban areas is where the young people, afro-americans etc all live. It's there the issue lays for Biden. every poll shows this over & over again.

Biden really isn't a good fit for urban USA.

Lol we outvoted Rs in PA last Tues Aor 23rd when you weren't here 900/700K and it's a poll of MOE 4%, it's the same as the MN poll that has Trump up 4 same pollster

Yes because MN is also in danger.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see that until we vote, I just see what the vote is, I don't worry too much about polls there are there to drive a narrative