That's not terrible for Romney or Pawlenty at all. Obama has a high floor and low ceiling in the South. And in Obama/Romney there are twice as many undecided whites as blacks.
Looking more closely, between Obama/Romney, the undecideds are 9%. Whites are 7%, blacks are 1%, and others are about 1%, rounding. By party line, 4% of Democrats, 8% of Republicans, and 16% of independs are undecided.
Looking like 56/43 to me. Not quite George W. territory, but halfway there.
If anything, it looks as if the Atlantic-shore South votes very differently from the inland South. Florida votes more as if part of the Midwest than of the South, so it doesn't count. Demographics seem to be making Virginia a Northern state in its politics.
Recent polls suggest to me that President Obama would do almost as well in Virginia as he did in 2008, slightly better in North Carolina than in 2008, have a better-than-even chance of winning Georgia, and have a significant chance (but less than 50%) in South Carolina.
Until I see fresh polls for the Deep South (AL, LA, and MS), I'm going to believe that the vote in those states breaks closely along racial lines, and until I see fresh polls for the Upper South (AR, KY, TN, WV) I am going to assume that President Obama is the absolutely wrong Democrat to win those states.
56/43 in South Carolina for Romney, and close to George W. Bush results? No, more likely 52-48 for Romney, a nailbiter with Obama vs. Pawlenty. DeMint would probably get 54-46, which would suggest that DeMint would be in trouble elsewhere.
