Future PA-13 races

[TeePee4Prez]

2006: Schwartz vs. Taylor

Schwartz 54-Taylor 46.  Due to the popularity of John Taylor, he decides to run for Congress and wins Northeast Philadelphia narrowly.  He has trouble in the more liberal 56th and 58th Wards where he is not as well known.  Schwartz widens her 2004 margins in Montgomery County due to NARAL and Planned Parenthood.  The latter groups demonize Taylor as a religious zealot in Montgomery County via mailings. 

2008: Schwartz vs. Kenney
Schwartz 56-Kenney 44.  George Kenney is getting a lot of pressure from Brendan Boyle who many analysts say will finally take him.  His wife urges him to run for Congress since his children are grown.  Does well in divisions close to his, but has trouble elsewhere.

2010: Torsella vs. Fox

Torsella 63-Fox 37.  Allyson Schwartz abandons the PA-13 seat to run for Arlen Specter's Senate Seat.  Jon Fox, a Montgoemry County Republican, makes a last ditch attempt to reclaim his former Congressional seat.  The GOP establishment likes this idea.  Joe Torsella, a relatively young and bright person, makes another run at this seat.  Fox's past ultra-conservatism comes out and Torsella smells like a rose.

More to come.  Keystone let me know if any changes.

[Akno21]

2030: Keystone Phil v. BacardiLimon.

[Keystone Phil]

Alittle bias towards the Dems, BL. Anyway...

The Schwartz vs. Taylor numbers seem about right. Maybe 53-47.

Schwartz vs. Kenney would never happen. If it did, Kenney wouldn't break 45% so you're prediction seems about right. As for Boyle "finally taking" Kenney, don't the analysts always say that? Look how it ends everytime.

Torsella vs. Fox - another "would never happen." Fox is done with politics. Done. If, for whatever reason, Fox did return and run for Congress, he wouldn't break 40% especially against Torsella. And where did you get this thing about Fox having an ultra-conservative past? That is in no way true.

[Keystone Phil]

2030: Keystone Phil v. BacardiLimon.

Who knows...that might happen one of these days...

[TeePee4Prez]

2030: Keystone Phil v. BacardiLimon.

Who knows...that might happen one of these days...

It may.  I'm thinking balpark 2020-2030.  We'll get to that one.  I'll revise 2010 as the following:

2010: Torsella vs. Weber

Torsella 53- Weber 47.  Allyson Schwartz abandons seat to run for Arlen Specter's open seat.  Former 2004 primary candidate Joe Torsella runs for this seat again and wins narrow primary against an ultra-lberal EMILY's List candidate.  Republican State Rep John Perzel is ebgged ot run, but declines.  The next most attractive choice is Melissa Murphy Weber.   

[Keystone Phil]

2030: Keystone Phil v. BacardiLimon.

Who knows...that might happen one of these days...

It may.  I'm thinking balpark 2020-2030.  We'll get to that one.  I'll revise 2010 as the following:

2010: Torsella vs. Weber

Torsella 53- Weber 47.  Allyson Schwartz abandons seat to run for Arlen Specter's open seat.  Former 2004 primary candidate Joe Torsella runs for this seat again and wins narrow primary against an ultra-lberal EMILY's List candidate.  Republican State Rep John Perzel is ebgged ot run, but declines.  The next most attractive choice is Melissa Murphy Weber.   

Weber might be a contender for this seat in a few years. I say she'll be back in the State House. The whole Gerber victory was a joke. She's not done. She'll be back in that seat. 2010 might be early for that seat. Maybe 2014 if she was to be a candidate. Torsella vs. Weber would be a good race but, as you said, it would go Torsella. Maybe closer than 52-47 though.

[Akno21]

2030: Keystone Phil v. BacardiLimon.

Who knows...that might happen one of these days...

It may.  I'm thinking balpark 2020-2030.  We'll get to that one.  I'll revise 2010 as the following:

You are 8 years older than Keystone, I think, so that moves it back a bit.

[Keystone Phil]

2030: Keystone Phil v. BacardiLimon.

Who knows...that might happen one of these days...

 Former 2004 primary candidate Joe Torsella runs for this seat again and wins narrow primary against an ultra-lberal EMILY's List candidate. 

Last time that happened he narrowly lost. How about that.

[Keystone Phil]

2030: Keystone Phil v. BacardiLimon.

Who knows...that might happen one of these days...

It may.  I'm thinking balpark 2020-2030.  We'll get to that one.  I'll revise 2010 as the following:

You are 8 years older than Keystone, I think, so that moves it back a bit.

In 2020, I'd be 32 so yeah, it is kind of early. I suggest 2030, BL, to make it seem more believable.

[TeePee4Prez]

2012: Torsella vs. Weber (yep again)

Torsella 57- Weber 43.  The 13th District is creeping left.  Torsella is incumbent (yawn).

2014:  Torsella vs. DeFelice

Torsella 52-DeFelice 48.  Battle of the Italians.  In this mid-term election, the Democrats yet again have some serious problems nationally.  Northeast Philadelphia Republican Joe DeFelice is popular and wins his home neighborhood of Mayfair overwhemingly after briefly representing them since John Perzel's retirement.  He pulls out a NE Philly victory, but NARAL rescues Torsella in Montgomery County.    

more....  

[Keystone Phil]

2012: Torsella vs. Weber (yep again)

Torsella 57- Weber 43.  The 13th District is creeping left.  Torsella is incumbent (yawn).

2014:  Torsella vs. DeFelice

Torsella 52-DeFelice 48.  Battle of the Italians.  In this mid-term election, the Democrats yet again have some serious problems nationally.  Northeast Philadelphia Republican Joe DeFelice is popular and wins his home neighborhood of Mayfair overwhemingly after briefly representing them since John Perzel's retirement.  He pulls out a NE Philly victory, but NARAL rescues Torsella in Montgomery County.    

more....  

I have a feeling Torsella will hold this seat until 2050 in your scenario, BL. Why am I not surprised?   

[Akno21]

How does re-districting change the 13th in 2012?

[Keystone Phil]

How does re-districting change the 13th in 2012?

Ah that's true. Take that into consideration, BL. I totally forgot about it. As for how it will change the 13th, Akno, we don't know. That's up to the State Legislature and it's too early to tell what they would do with the districts.

[TeePee4Prez]

2016: Torsella vs. some Montgomery County doctor

Torsella 58- theoretical doctor 42. Yawn.

2018: Shapiro vs. some current Montco YR I never heard of.

Torsella makes run for Joe Hoeffel's Senate seat due to retirement.  Shapiro wins!

..........

2030:  Guinan vs. Innamorato. DA DA DA!!

Two complete newcomers to this race both from Northeast Philadelphia Catholic high schools.  Who knows what the district will look like by then.    

[TeePee4Prez]

How does re-districting change the 13th in 2012?

Ah that's true. Take that into consideration, BL. I totally forgot about it. As for how it will change the 13th, Akno, we don't know. That's up to the State Legislature and it's too early to tell what they would do with the districts.

We may be in totally different districts by then and there may be some political newcomers by then we never even heard of.

[Keystone Phil]

2016: Torsella vs. some Montgomery County doctor

Torsella 58- theoretical doctor 42. Yawn.

2018: Shapiro vs. some current Montco YR I never heard of.

Torsella makes run for Joe Hoeffel's Senate seat due to retirement.  Shapiro wins!

..........

2030:  Guinan vs. Innamorato. DA DA DA!!

Two complete newcomers to this race both from Northeast Philadelphia Catholic high schools.  Who knows what the district will look like by then.    

There you go, Akno. You now know my last name  

As for Shapiro vs. whoever, I think he will run for Congress one day but I don't think he can win. Oh and Joe Hoeffel will never be a U.S. Senator  

[Keystone Phil]

How does re-districting change the 13th in 2012?

Ah that's true. Take that into consideration, BL. I totally forgot about it. As for how it will change the 13th, Akno, we don't know. That's up to the State Legislature and it's too early to tell what they would do with the districts.

We may be in totally different districts by then and there may be some political newcomers by then we never even heard of.

Yep. My area of the NE might be in the current PA 8. Who knows.

[Akno21]

2016: Torsella vs. some Montgomery County doctor

Torsella 58- theoretical doctor 42. Yawn.

2018: Shapiro vs. some current Montco YR I never heard of.

Torsella makes run for Joe Hoeffel's Senate seat due to retirement.  Shapiro wins!

..........

2030:  Guinan vs. Innamorato. DA DA DA!!

Two complete newcomers to this race both from Northeast Philadelphia Catholic high schools.  Who knows what the district will look like by then.    

There you go, Akno. You now know my last name  

Now your parents don't have to die in a terrorist attack on Philly

I got the morato part right.

[TeePee4Prez]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

[Keystone Phil]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

[Keystone Phil]

2016: Torsella vs. some Montgomery County doctor

Torsella 58- theoretical doctor 42. Yawn.

2018: Shapiro vs. some current Montco YR I never heard of.

Torsella makes run for Joe Hoeffel's Senate seat due to retirement.  Shapiro wins!

..........

2030:  Guinan vs. Innamorato. DA DA DA!!

Two complete newcomers to this race both from Northeast Philadelphia Catholic high schools.  Who knows what the district will look like by then.    

There you go, Akno. You now know my last name  

Now your parents don't have to die in a terrorist attack on Philly

I got the morato part right.

You said it was Samuruto.

[ilikeverin]

Innamorado sounds a lot like 'enamorado', which is Spanish for 'in love'

[Keystone Phil]

Innamorado sounds a lot like 'enamorado', which is Spanish for 'in love'

My last name means "in love" in Italian.

[Akno21]

2016: Torsella vs. some Montgomery County doctor

Torsella 58- theoretical doctor 42. Yawn.

2018: Shapiro vs. some current Montco YR I never heard of.

Torsella makes run for Joe Hoeffel's Senate seat due to retirement.  Shapiro wins!

..........

2030:  Guinan vs. Innamorato. DA DA DA!!

Two complete newcomers to this race both from Northeast Philadelphia Catholic high schools.  Who knows what the district will look like by then.    

There you go, Akno. You now know my last name  

Now your parents don't have to die in a terrorist attack on Philly

I got the morato part right.

That's from another thread. Inside joke, don't take it seriously.

[TeePee4Prez]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

You always underestimate that kid.