One of the big ‘cons’ that has been have been observed about Rep. Kirsten Gilibrand’s “candidacy” to replace Hillary Clinton is the issue of taking her out of the heavily Republican 20th Congressional district - where there are 125,486 Democrats to 196,118 Republicans and 118,364 blanks.
As Rick points out, Republicans are already positioning themselves to take a run at Gillibrand’s seat, should Gov. Paterson tap her for the Senate.
There’s been concern that if Gillibrand were tapped, the 20th congressional seat would go back to a Republican. The GOP currently holds three Congressional seats in New York - Reps. Peter King of Long Island (3rd district), John McHugh of Northern New York (23rd district), and newly elected Christopher Lee of Western New York (26th district).
And looking forward to 2010, there’s the question of redistricting. New York is expected to lose one Congressional seat (good news for New York, because based on estimates in previous years, New York could have lost 2 seats). Presuming that Democrats in remain control of both the state Assembly and Senate through the 2010 elections, any seats lost in redistricting would certainly be Republican.
At first glance, losing Gillibrand in the 20th would presumably complicate which seat would be chosen to get the axe, but when you look at the numbers, it appears that if there’s one seat for Democrats to cut, it would be the 20th.
This analysis below gets a little clunky, mainly because I can’t dump this data into a map that would be readable on the blog, but I hope you’ll bear with me:
Looking the voter enrollment numbers surround each of these Republican-held Congressional seats…
3rd District: Rep. Peter King’s district (143,555 Democrats, 194,526 Republicans) borders the 2nd, 4th, 5th and 18th districts, all held by Democrats. But look at the enrollment in the ajoining districts:
2nd: 157,719 Democrats, 133,201 Republicans
4th: 183,244 Democrats, 160,784 Republicans
5th: 181,513 Democrats, 69,387 Republicans
18th: 201,595 Democrats, 120,699 Republicans
In short: You would have to shift the the 50,000+ Republican surplus to ajoining districts. Now that might be fine in the 5th or 18th, but the 2nd and 4th have narrower Democratic advantages. Also, remember that though demographics are shifting, seven of the nice state senators on Long Island are Republicans.
23rd District: Rep. John McHugh’s district (123,299 Democrats, 174,221 Republicans), borders with the 20th, 21st, 24th, 25th, which are all held by Democrats. But with the exception of the 21st (currently held by newly elected Rep. Paul Tonko), those other districts were held by Republicans as recently as 2006, when the Democratic tide ushered in a number of Democrats into traditionally Republican districts.
20th: 125,486 Democrats, 196,118 Republicans. Democrat Gillibrand won seat in 2006.
21st: 184,198 Democrats, 121,205 Republicans
24th: 134,929 Democrats, 163,012 Republicans. Democrat Michael Arcuri won seat in 2006.
25th: 149,074 Democrats, 153,171 Republicans. Democrat Dan Maffei won seat in 2008.
In short: Three Democrats hold seats in ajoining districts with a GOP enrollment advantage. Meanwhile, to get rid of the seat, Democrats would have to shift a 50,000+ GOP surplus to ajoining districts. If Democrats aren’t able to turn around the slumping economy, the pendulum could swing back in favor of the GOP, and those Democrats would be none-too-please to see additional Republicans moved into their already red districts. If you moved all that GOP surplus into Tonko’s seat (which you probably couldn’t do anyway given population/ geographic considerations), you’d get a seat that would be split Dem-GOP enrollment.
26th District: Rep. Christopher Lee’s district (145,230 Democrats, 178,027 Republicans) is ajoined by the 25th, 27th, 28th, and 29th districts.
25th: 149,074 Democrats, 153,171 Republicans. Democrat Dan Maffei won seat in 2008.
27th: 206,258 Democrats, 117,868 Republicans.
28th: 219,823 Democrats, 90,763 Republicans.
29th: 130,091 Democrats, 180,941 Republicans. Democrat Eric Massa won the seat in 2008.
In short:The 27th and 28th districts could absorb the 30,000+ GOP surplus, but given the fact that each Congressional district must have roughly the same population, and they are the Westernmost districts (thus with nowhere to go in terms of rejiggering populations), removing this district would be very tough. In addition, Lee was locked in a heated campaign against Alice Kryzan, but ultimately won with 55.4% of the vote, to her 40.1%. It wouldn’t take too much rejiggering to redistrict the seat in favor of Democrats, pulling Democratic voters from the heavily Democratic 28th and 29th districts.
20th District: Gillibrand’s district (125,486 Democrats, 196,118 Republicans) has the largest GOP advantages in the state and was gerrymandered to be that way. Just take a look at the district, which twists and winds from the Hudson Valley all the way up to Lake Placid. The district is bordered by the 19th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, and 24th districts.
19th: 153,634 Democrats, 155,577 Republicans. Democrat John Hall won the seat in 2006.
21st: 184,198 Democrats, 121,205 Republicans. Held by Democrat Paul Tonko.
22nd: 170,367 Democrats, 133,200 Republicans. Held by Democrat Mauric Hinchey.
23rd: 123,299 Democrats, 174,221 Republicans. Held by Republican John McHugh.
24th: 134,929 Democrats, 163,012 Republicans. Democrat Michael Arcuri won seat in 2006.
In short: There’s a 70,000+ GOP surplus that would need to be absorbed by adjacent districts, but there are a number of disticts that could take a few - the already heavily Republican 23rd, and the heavily Democratic 21st and 22nd.
http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/10824/gillibrand-redistricting-con-may-not-be-an-issue
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