UK parliamentary boundary review

[CumbrianLefty]

It is headlines like this that shows the media have no understanding of boundary changes. A 15% Labour lead is a swing of 13.5% from Con to Lab, which on the current boundaries would result in a Labour majority of 26, but we all know that in 1997 Labour went into the election with a 18% swing and came out with a national swing of 10%, therefore are the I running this story to scare Sunak or to show that they are on the verge of supporting Labour?

Even assuming the former figure is actually correct*, polling then was mostly rather different to now - and even if it wasn't, something happening once does not mean it inevitably will again.

(*which I'm pretty sure it isn't tbh - maybe the *best* polls for Labour were saying that at the time)

[CumbrianLefty]

Central Devon isn’t just Dartmoor though, in fact that’s only about 1/3 of its landmass

And to state the obvious, not that many people actually live there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Taking it all with a pinch of salt of course. But there are still some pretty wild results in there that are highly engaging if nothing else. Both Isle of Wight seats going Labour for one. Rees-Mogg and Coffey going down to a narrow defeats. Frome and East Somerset turning into a true three-way marginal that costs the Lib Dems victory over the Tories. Rosie Duffield somehow winning a 20k majority. I could go on.

I would say that Rees-Mogg losing would not be a massive surprise. It's less Labour than the old Wansdyke, but that was comfortably Labour in 1997 and it's full of the sorts of voters the Tories have spent the past two years pissing off. Similarly, much as she's mad, I don't think a stonking majority in Canterbury is at all unlikely.

Still hoping that Duffield (who now spends most of her time in N Wales) retires at the GE.