MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MT Treasurer]

These Google Polls are generally not very reliable, and in this race they have been extremely biased toward Dems. I believe one poll conducted by cinyc showed GF ahead, though.

[MT Treasurer]

^Missoula is the second-largest city in the state and a Democratic stronghold.

It's also important to note that thus far turnout levels have been significantly lower than in other population centers in Montana.

Some of this is likely because of later voter turnout among younger college students in the County, than elsewhere.... However, obviously in a Special Election, right towards the end of the School Year, bumping Democratic turnout in Missoula is key towards making this a nail biter, so is the logical place to start.

I agree, of course. My impression is that both sides are getting their voters out and that we will have record-high turnout on election day. I wanted to calculate the new numbers today, but the Secretary of State's website hasn't updated them yet.

[MT Treasurer]

Since this thing is almost all mail in ballots, will there just be one huge dump of votes, followed by a few trickles of those who voted at a few polls on election day, or will it still come out the usual way as it did in ga kansas and most other places?

Pretty sure there will be a huge dump of votes 15 minutes after poll closing time or so. FWIW, this is what the results of MT-GOV 2016 looked like with "4% of the precincts" in (in fact, 27% of the vote had already been counted):

Bullock (D) - 55% - 75,579
Gianforte (R) - 42% - 58,291
Dunlap (L) - 3% - 3,957 

Link.

[MT Treasurer]

Have you started the google poll yet, any early returns?

The survey was put into the field around midnight, Mountain Time.  It's too early to say anything about the returns.  We're only up to 165/567 respondents.  The poll should be completed by tomorrow or (most likely) Tuesday.

Can you just say whether Quist or Gianforte is in the lead so far? Pleeease? (I know it doesn't mean much I'm just really impatient lol)

Chill. You won't get a totally reliable poll before the election anyway, so you might as well listen to your gut when you make your final prediction for this race. Don't read too much into Google surveys, Gravis or polling in general.

[MT Treasurer]

surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=jaxfdpd3rxotdiygpxubxdp4c4

53 of my 60 sample size poll is in and Gianforte only has 4 votes: lol

Quist: 25 Gianforte: 4 Wicks: 2 Undecided: 15 Won't vote: 7

Even with such a tiny sample size as 60 and a sh**tty pollster surely Quist must have some kind of advantage, at least with Google poll takers.

I rest my case. Seriously though, I believe there was a Montana GCS poll that showed Clinton leading Trump in the state, though it was part of a 50-state survey or something like that, LOL.

[MT Treasurer]

Wasn't that Reuters? Which were subsamples of their national polls.

Nah, Google. Check the link:

National Topline
Clinton: 36
Trump: 35
Johnson: 8
Undecided: 31

Montana
Clinton: 33
Trump: 29

Now all we need is ARG and Zogby to poll this race...

[MT Treasurer]

^I could definitely see the AHCA having an impact, but I don't think "Russiagate" will play a big role in the outcome of this race. GA-06 has been much more nationalized than MT (but again - that doesn't mean the national mood doesn't influence factors like turnout - sure it does). This article makes some pretty good points IMO:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link.

I don't think Quist being a nudist will change many people's minds either, but yeah, had he run a better campaign, he probably would have won by 5-7 points or so. Oh well, he could still win, so nothing is lost for Democrats yet.

[MT Treasurer]

Can I ask how Quist has run a bad campaign? I mean, things that Quist did in the past aren't really a product of his campaign. His ads have been very hard hitting and effective, he's been turning out thousands to his rallies/events, how is that running a bad campaign?

Oh, feel free to disagree if you want, but that's not only been my impression. He's done much worse than I thought he would do at the beginning of this race, after he won the Democratic nomination. Quist hasn't been clear about where he stands on several issues (most notably gun rights and foreign policy), and he just kept repeating his "But Gianforte is from New Jersey!" and "But Russia" talking points over and over again, especially during the debate, which was rather disappointing. His claim that Gianforte had "Russian ties" was basically a lie. Honestly, Amanda Curtis (who is one of my favorite MT Democrats, so I might be biased) comes across as much more authentic than Quist.

Say what you want about Gianforte, but he's done a pretty good job so far, even though I liked him more when he ran for governor. There's a reason why three of Montana's largest newspapers have endorsed him.

But like you said, Quist's base is probably still very motivated and will turn out for him on election day, and "candidate quality" is often overrated anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

Curtis lost her senate race by 20 points in 2014 though

Actually, it was 18 points. I'm not saying she would have done better than Quist in this race, just that I think that she is more authentic (and I'm probably in the minority with that view, so yeah).

Let's not derail this thread any further, though. I'm sticking with my Gianforte +5 prediction for now (and probably won't change it before election day), but Quist could absolutely win. Enough from me now.

[MT Treasurer]

Mass and Montana PVIs are comparable, so Quist winning would be something like Scott Brown's win.

Montana is wayyyy more Democratic-friendly down ballot (including federal races) than MA is Republican-friendly, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Early Voting has exceeded 2014 levels. Info from DDHQ as of last night:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/upcoming-races/early-voting-in-mtal-exceeds-2014/

Added the change (5/18-5/21) in brackets.

[MT Treasurer]

My predictions:

Google poll #1: Quist +12
Google poll #2: Quist +23
Gravis: Quist +2

[MT Treasurer]

Quist currently at a 34% chance on PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2961/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana

How many predictIt users are intimately familiar with Montana politics?

Judging from the comment section, not many.

[MT Treasurer]

Quist currently at a 34% chance on PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2961/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana

How many predictIt users are intimately familiar with Montana politics?

Judging from the comment section, not many.

Yeah, this sort of thing leads me to be deeply skeptical of betting markets. Are they good for assessing the cosmopolitan elite's conventional wisdom? Yes. Is that vaguely influential on world events? Yes. Does that mean that they're strongly predictive? No.

Yeah. I mean, I always had this race in the Toss-up column (even when these junk Gravis polls showed Gianforte up 10 or something like that) so I'm glad that I was proven right. The overreactions are hilarious though, and it looks like some people are intent on making stuff up (like that "Republican" who thinks Quist will win in a landslide "based on evidence he is seeing on the ground"). Unfortunately, some idiots are deliberately spreading misinformation in order to cause confusion - there is a guy who says that the Gravis poll will show a Tie, but I'm not sure what to make of it.

Like I said before, it's probably the best to ignore most, if not all of this hype. After 2016, we shouldn't overract to this stuff anymore.

Btw: Even that National Journal article points out that Quist really isn't a better candidate than Gianforte: "Quist is an even worse can­did­ate. His pop­u­list charm is an as­set in a state will­ing to elect work­ing-class Demo­crats, but that’s about all he has go­ing for him." I agree with this assessment (except for the "working-class Democrats" nonsense), and laying all the blame on Gianforte would be ridiculous. Let's be clear here: If the Republicans lose this race, it will be pretty devastating for the Montana GOP, which just recently swept all statewide offices except Governor. I'm not saying that this necessarily tells us anything about the Senate race in 2018, but the party needs to get its act together.

But like you said, a lot of the Trump vote was really just against Clinton.

[MT Treasurer]

This is even pathetic for Gravis. The poll should have been released forever ago.

Yeah, embarrassing.

[MT Treasurer]

It will probably be something totally unsurprising anyway, maybe Gianforte +2/3 or so. Pretty sure either candidate will lead by 4 or less.

[MT Treasurer]

4 hours later.

I think something is fishy here.

[MT Treasurer]

Feeling pretty good about my Gianforte +5 prediction now, but it's Gravis. No way Gianforte will win by 14, though, LOL.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, I warned you guys before. Just wait until you see cinyc's Google poll, you're going to be even more surprised, haha.

[MT Treasurer]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Also watch the margin in Lewis+Clark and especially Yellowstone. These counties tend to come in earlier than Lake, I believe.

[MT Treasurer]

Lake county is generally a good bellwether in the state. If one just wants a rough approximation that's probably right on election night, this is probably the county to watch.

Also watch the margin in Lewis+Clark and especially Yellowstone. These counties tend to come in earlier than Lake, I believe.

I just checked the 2016 coverage of the gubernatorial race again, and Lake actually came in early as well. So yeah, with all of these important counties coming in early, we will probably know relatively soon where the race stands. But again - please keep in mind that the early returns (almost all early vote) always favor Democrats, so Quist might be ahead in Yellowstone and Lake at the beginning, kinda like Republicans always lead in Londoun County in VA in the early returns.

And yeah, Lake's record is pretty impressive.

[MT Treasurer]

Most of the voting in this election is early voting.

I am aware of that. Just don't freak out if Quist is ahead by 3-5 with 25% of the vote in, lol.

[MT Treasurer]

Will Montana be quick to count since most of the vote is by mail? I'm not trying to go to sleep at an unreasonable time, I have stuff to do the next day lol.

The last time I believe it took 20 minutes or so until the first big vote dump came in. After that, it really depends. It's nowhere near as quick as Florida, but if either candidate wins by 4 or more, we should know the outcome of the race relatively soon. If it's decided by 2 points or less than that, it'll be a long night for sure, lol.

According to MorningConsult (A more reliable pollster) Steve Bullock's approval rating is +31% and Jon Tester's approval rating is +25%.

Yeah, no. Just because this poll is nonsense and Gravis is a bad pollster doesn't mean that we should pay attention to Morning Consult, lol. These numbers are obviously inflated.

[MT Treasurer]

Is there any link to this mysterious GOP internal that has Gianforte up 2?

[MT Treasurer]

Well, I warned you guys before. Just wait until you see cinyc's Google poll, you're going to be even more surprised, haha.

aren't you all the time doubting a big republican advantage and talking about a narrow gianforte win?

Huh, I'm not sure what you mean by that? I am still doubting a big Republican advantage, but I warned you guys about these polls and all the confusion they will cause before election day.

Oh, and needless to say, there is zero chance that Quist will win by 15 points either. These Google polls are obviously biased in favor of Ds.