GA-6 Special election discussion thread

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First day early voting almost always trends hard democrat, everywhere. Take those numbers with a grain of salt, and look at early vote numbers as a whole at the end.

Or better yet: Don't read too much into early voting in general. You'd think people would have learned this lesson after 2014 and 2016.

Agreed, They never learn - Always quick to pick straws here & there & jump to conclusions & foretell a Republican collapse - And then they wonder how could they be wrong when Dems lose ?

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If Ossoff gets 45% odd in the jungle primary, he is winning in the next round. Do you think Handel (let's say he gets 20-25%) will be able to get the entire Republican vote, almost 30-35% of the other vote including the entire Libertarian vote.

Even with polarization in a D vs R race in the age of Trump, Ossoff has a dam good chance of getting 5% odd in the 30-35% vote bank ! This race is a tossup till more data is available - Maybe Lean R but more like a tossup

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Fantastic result. Ossoff is at 48.3% now & the 4 other Dems have 0.9%, so the total Dem vote is 49.2%. The Dem-GOP Vote is effectively split around 50-50. And let's be honest, no candidate can get all votes of contendders, not Obama, Hillary or Bernie or Trump.

Ossoff needs just a mere 1.7% from the combined GOP Vote & other Dem vote. This should be reasonably easy. Atleast 10-15% of the vote is definitely possible which will put Ossoff at 53-56% odd. Either way if the Dems can't win this race now, they should just change the entire management.

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What an ad - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IJp8-BAT6Y

Thank you Georgia - From San Francisco for giving a Congressman after Nancy Pelosi & it goes on & on !

This same group, the Congressional Leadership Fund has many other Pelosi/Ossoff ads -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oxyqd5XiVgs - A Rubber Stamp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caMoSDkVEAY - Yes man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caMoSDkVEAY - Not us

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJrqSTAch1I - This was is not totally about Pelosi but somewhat related - Hollywood vs Georgia - Ossoff will be Nancy Pelosi's Congressman !

GOP is mainly going hard with Pelosi/Ossoff ads. Why do the Democrats not go after Mitch McConnell in key Senate races considering he is even more disliked nationally?

And Pelosi is this hated in even rich sub-urban areas !

The Quist-Pelosi angle has totally failed though which is why they are going for all sorts of ads against Quist - Too Liberal, personal finances, etc to see if something sticks !

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It is necessary to spend decent money to compete - Some money to counter negative ads, maybe create one's & some money for positive message ads of the candidates & GOTV efforts.

Beyond a while, it is wastage of money. Hillary spend 1.4B & out-spend Trump 2 to 1 & still lost. Money is essential to compete but in today's digital world & partisan lines, spending unlimited money will not win you elections !

Since the Democrats have enough resources in GA-6, it should be more about utilization of it - Ground efforts to boost turnout, rallies, door-knocking, quality of ads & every other little thing !

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They should invest some of this money to get flip the Virginia Legislature which will support the Gov in expanding medicaid, enacting a 15$ min wage, etc & in defeating those clowns in North Carolina who have not decency or dignity & are blatantly stoking racism !

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Well, with the MT result, this race is now a must-win for dems, as they're not going to win SC-5 or UT-3.

I'd disagree that any of these races are "must win". They need to be seen as what they are--heavy D shifts in R areas, even if not winnable races, that could signal 10-15 point R seats could be up for grabs in 2018--a lesson that if the voters show up, and can make safe seats this close, then they can certainly swing some tilt or lean R seats. Treating them as anything else is a great way to spook Democrats into not showing up in 2018, seeing "sure thing" seats as being hopeless.

Democrats have to compete everywhere. Obama said he won states like Iowa because lost by lesser margins in rural areas which allowed him to run the numbers in urban ares.

There is 14-15% swing in Montana from the Presidential election. If Democrats compete on Montana then it will be in play in the long term. Baby boomer population is falling & Millennial population is increasing big.

If the Democrats can get Schweitzer to run, Montana 2020 Senate is in the bag. That guy won by 33% in 2008 when Obama lost Montana !