Miles' Election Map Thread

[Miles]

[Miles]

[Miles]

[Miles]

And there it is, folks!




FULL SIZE.

Pres-by-CD calculations by county are coming.

[minionofmidas]

And there it is, folks!




FULL SIZE.

Pres-by-CD calculations by county are coming.

Now all you need to do to fulfill that above request (which I'd like to echo!) is to add the CD lines in white.

[smoltchanov]

Are you sure that it's NC-12?

[Miles]

Are you sure that it's NC-12?

Ah, I forgot to change the name.

[Miles]

With lines distinguishing the CDs:



FULL SIZE.

On deck: the state Congressional vote.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks, awe-inspiring!

[Mr.Phips]

Good God, I hate this district.  It and NC-04 should be destroyed and turned into something good looking(and less of a Dem vote sink). 

[Miles]

This may be a bit random, but I thought it would make a good GIF.

This is NC Senate District 43, which is takes up most of Gaston County, NC.

In 2008, Senator David Hoyle (D) was reelected to a 9th term; despite spending $1 million of his own money, he hung on with 51.5%. Granted, Gaston is hostile to most any Democrat, Hoyle had won by much bigger margins in past years.

By the time 2010 rolled around, Hoyle saw the writing on the wall and called it quits. The Republican he beat in 2008, Kathy Harrington, ran for the open seat and won by 40 points.

[Sol]

A Democrat won Gaston County?!?!

[Miles]

A Democrat won Gaston County?!?!

Yep. From 1993 to 2011.

Hoyle was mayor of Dallas, NC and could self-fund, so that helped. But still, yeah, Gaston County is rough.

[Sol]

A Democrat won Gaston County?!?!

Yep. From 1993 to 2011.

Hoyle was mayor of Dallas, NC and could self-fund, so that helped. But still, yeah, Gaston County is rough.

Maybe It'll swing back in 20+ years with the growth of Charlotte.

[Mr.Phips]

A Democrat won Gaston County?!?!

Its really amazing.  That area hasnt had a trace of Democratic since 1976. 

[Miles]

I needed to make a few tweaks to the 2008 Governor map.



FULL SIZE.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With lines distinguishing the CDs:



FULL SIZE.

On deck: the state Congressional vote.

Could we please get a county map of this, by any chance?  Thanks

[Miles]

I was wondering how the old CDs in NC would have voted in 2012. Thus, as usual, I wasted used some perfectly good sleep/study hours to find out!

This is what I came up with:



For comparison, this is what 2008 looked like:



General comments:

- I know the swing was less than three points, but I was amazed at how similar the maps were; no district changed parties and only 4 districts changed shades.

- Like with 2008, in 2012, CD2 most closely mirrored the country. Ellmers would have been swept out by any decent Democrat.

- Other than CD1, which I was expecting, CD8 also swung Democratic. My explanation: while Cabaurrus and Stanly counties swung R, the counties touching the SC border swung to Obama. Also, on either side of the district, most of the precincts its Charlotte and Fayetteville hands swung to Obama. This is quite tragically ironic, as Kissell would have likely won by double-digits if he had to run in that district again.

- Though CD9 was the most populous district, CD4 would have cast about 35k more votes. From my experience in mapping NC, turnout in the Triangle seems to be noticeably better than that around Charlotte.

- As you can conjecture by looking at a simple county swing map, the biggest part of Obama's slippage came from the mountains. Between CD's 5, 10 and 11, the average swing was 4.9 points towards Romney.

HERE ARE MY COUNTY-LEVEL CALCULATIONS.

I will say that when I went to add up my CD totals, I was about 9,000 votes short of the statewide total (about 4.5 million). I suspect that most of these are from absentee votes and split precincts. Still, that 9,000 vote gap only accounts for about .002% of all votes cast, so my numbers should be pretty solid.

Feel free to look over my calculations and let me know if you see anything off!

Finally, here are some other maps I got out of this.

The counties with the CDs overlaid:



SWING


TREND




On deck:

- NC Pres-by-precinct with county overlay.
- CD totals by county for the new CDs.
- More Louisiana districts.

[Miles]

[Mr.Phips]

I was wondering how the old CDs in NC would have voted in 2012. Thus, as usual, I wasted used some perfectly good sleep/study hours to find out!

This is what I came up with:



For comparison, this is what 2008 looked like:



General comments:

- I know the swing was less than three points, but I was amazed at how similar the maps were; no district changed parties and only 4 districts changed shades.

- Like with 2008, in 2012, CD2 most closely mirrored the country. Ellmers would have been swept out by any decent Democrat.

- Other than CD1, which I was expecting, CD8 also swung Democratic. My explanation: while Cabaurrus and Stanly counties swung R, the counties touching the SC border swung to Obama. Also, on either side of the district, most of the precincts its Charlotte and Fayetteville hands swung to Obama. This is quite tragically ironic, as Kissell would have likely won by double-digits if he had to run in that district again.

- Though CD9 was the most populous district, CD4 would have cast about 35k more votes. From my experience in mapping NC, turnout in the Triangle seems to be noticeably better than that around Charlotte.

- As you can conjecture by looking at a simple county swing map, the biggest part of Obama's slippage came from the mountains. Between CD's 5, 10 and 11, the average swing was 4.9 points towards Romney.

HERE ARE MY COUNTY-LEVEL CALCULATIONS.

I will say that when I went to add up my CD totals, I was about 9,000 votes short of the statewide total (about 4.5 million). I suspect that most of these are from absentee votes and split precincts. Still, that 9,000 vote gap only accounts for about .002% of all votes cast, so my numbers should be pretty solid.

Feel free to look over my calculations and let me know if you see anything off!

Finally, here are some other maps I got out of this.

The counties with the CDs overlaid:



SWING


TREND




On deck:

- NC Pres-by-precinct with county overlay.
- CD totals by county for the new CDs.
- More Louisiana districts.

Stupid, stupid Democrats for not passing independent redistricting here in summer 2010 when it was clear that they would lose the legislature(all they had to do was read those brutal SUSA polls of the districts to know this).

The map probably would have stayed much like this, but with Kissell losing his parts of Charlotte and gaining more of Union, which only would have shifted the seat a couple points to the right and would have been survivable. 

[JacobNC]

They should have handed redistricting responsibilities to the Council of State, then we still could've gotten a Democratic gerrymander.

Keep the great maps coming, Miles!

[nclib]

Under the old NC districts, Obama (2012) ran ahead of gay marriage by:

NC-1   31.4%
NC-10   25.5%
NC-12   22.4%
NC-8   20.8%
NC-2   19.3%
NC-7   16.3%
NC-13   8.0%
NC-11   7.6%
NC-3   5.3%
NC-5   4.8%
NC-9   0.5%
NC-6   -0.1%
NC-4   -4.3%

[Miles]

Look at the all the red disappear...

[Miles]

This is NC in normal colors:



I like the Atlas colors better.

[Gass3268]

This is NC in normal colors:



I like the Atlas colors better.

Blasphemy!