Politico: State Democrats mount big comeback in 2020

[Orser67]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/30/dems-pour-record-cash-into-battleground-state-parties-389082

Across 15 possible battleground states, nearly every Democratic state party group is hitting higher quarterly fundraising totals or holding more cash on hand in their federal accounts than they did at this point during the 2016 presidential campaign, and a majority of them did both, according to a POLITICO analysis of Federal Election Commission filings and in interviews with party officials. Many of these state parties — responsible for field operations and coordinating a ticket-wide campaign — are seeing three, four or five times the amount of cash they did before.

It's great to see left-leaning donors putting more emphasis on state races.

[walleye26]

I was looking at some state legislature races in various states the other day, and it was crazy how in Kansas several Democratic challengers were out raising the GOP incumbents. This has been happening in MN and TX as well. 

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I was looking at some state legislature races in various states the other day, and it was crazy how in Kansas several Democratic challengers were out raising the GOP incumbents. This has been happening in MN and TX as well. 

Where'd ya go for information on campaign funds & the Texas taxes?

[walleye26]

J. Miles Coleman shared some tweets from somebody on Twitter who looked at state filings. I think the Twitter user’s name is “uncrewed” or something.

[Sir Mohamed]

One way or the other, I expect Dems to make significant down-ballot gains in this election. The question is how long it will last if Biden is elected prez. I assume there's going to be some reverse trend once he gets elected. However, I'm not sure there will be same bleeding as under Obama. Biden isn't as much of a controversial figure than Obama and later Trump proved to be. Post-2020 redistricting will also be a lot more D-friendly.

[Epaminondas]

The consensus seems to be that in order of likelihood, the following legislatures could flip
- Minnesota Senate
- Arizona House
- Michigan House
- Iowa House
- North Carolina Senate & House
- Pennsylvania House
- Texas House

My understanding is that even if they all flipped, that would change very little for gerrymandering.
Perhaps 1 seats in MN, MI, 2 seats in NC & PA, and 5 seats in TX, so barely 10 seats overall.

Is it really worth worrying about?

[libertpaulian]

The consensus seems to be that in order of likelihood, the following legislatures could flip
- Minnesota Senate
- Arizona House
- Michigan House
- Iowa House
- North Carolina Senate & House
- Pennsylvania House
- Texas House

My understanding is that even if they all flipped, that would change very little for gerrymandering.
Perhaps 1 seats in MN, MI, 2 seats in NC & PA, and 5 seats in TX, so barely 10 seats overall.

Is it really worth worrying about?

If the House election is close, yes.

[kph14]

The consensus seems to be that in order of likelihood, the following legislatures could flip
- Minnesota Senate
- Arizona House
- Michigan House
- Iowa House
- North Carolina Senate & House
- Pennsylvania House
- Texas House

My understanding is that even if they all flipped, that would change very little for gerrymandering.
Perhaps 1 seats in MN, MI, 2 seats in NC & PA, and 5 seats in TX, so barely 10 seats overall.

Is it really worth worrying about?

You forgot the Arizona Senate.

[Nyvin]

For redistricting, the main 2020 fights I see are these -

-OH State Supreme Court Seats
-MI State Supreme Court Seats
-MN State Senate
-NC State House/Senate
-NY State Senate Dem Supermajority
-AR Redistricting Reform Ballot Measure
-Texas State House (Court drawn map better than legislature map)
-KS State House, ending Republican supermajority to sustain Kelly's vetos

There's other things that seem like stretches but possible (FL Leg., Texas State Supreme Court, NC Leg. is kind of a stretch too) but the eight above are probably the most realistic and important.

[Bojack Horseman]

For redistricting, the main 2020 fights I see are these -

-OH State Supreme Court Seats
-MI State Supreme Court Seats
-MN State Senate
-NC State House/Senate
-NY State Senate Dem Supermajority
-AR Redistricting Reform Ballot Measure
-Texas State House (Court drawn map better than legislature map)
-KS State House, ending Republican supermajority to sustain Kelly's vetos

There's other things that seem like stretches but possible (FL Leg., Texas State Supreme Court, NC Leg. is kind of a stretch too) but the eight above are probably the most realistic and important.

Michigan will in all likelihood have a D majority on the Supreme Court after this election but it doesn’t matter because of the new redistricting panel.

[Nyvin]

For redistricting, the main 2020 fights I see are these -

-OH State Supreme Court Seats
-MI State Supreme Court Seats
-MN State Senate
-NC State House/Senate
-NY State Senate Dem Supermajority
-AR Redistricting Reform Ballot Measure
-Texas State House (Court drawn map better than legislature map)
-KS State House, ending Republican supermajority to sustain Kelly's vetos

There's other things that seem like stretches but possible (FL Leg., Texas State Supreme Court, NC Leg. is kind of a stretch too) but the eight above are probably the most realistic and important.

Michigan will in all likelihood have a D majority on the Supreme Court after this election but it doesn’t matter because of the new redistricting panel.

It'll still be very much in Democrat's interests to control the court, both for redistricting and otherwise. 

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

For redistricting, the main 2020 fights I see are these -

-OH State Supreme Court Seats
-MI State Supreme Court Seats
-MN State Senate
-NC State House/Senate
-NY State Senate Dem Supermajority
-AR Redistricting Reform Ballot Measure
-Texas State House (Court drawn map better than legislature map)
-KS State House, ending Republican supermajority to sustain Kelly's vetos

There's other things that seem like stretches but possible (FL Leg., Texas State Supreme Court, NC Leg. is kind of a stretch too) but the eight above are probably the most realistic and important.

Do you need 2/3rds in NY to pass a map?

[lfromnj]

Kansas still has the most liberal supreme court in the nation. GL with a gerrymander. I guess a compromise map removes the red parts of Johnson county with maybe an arm to Mission Hills and then takes in Topeka to screw in Steve Watkins if he survives.