Counterpoint: this forum is missing a big-time swing toward Trump among minorities

[tagimaucia]

Well, asians swung further away from Republicans from 2016 to 2018 than whites, hispanics, or blacks.  I guess its possible that there's some large group of asians that now like Trump but dislike other Republicans, but I don't think that's what's going on. Trump's approval in exit polls very closely matched the vote share in the house Republicans got nationally and in most states in 2018.

Hispanics and blacks both pretty much always vote for Democrats by much larger margins than the polls end up showing, not the other way around. Its usually only the boutique specialty polls like Latino Decisions that get it right with Hispanics. Polls pretty much always show hispanic Dem support in the 50s and 60s, and it usually ends up in the 70s (based on voter file analysis, not exit polls).  And based on similar analysis, 95-96% of black voters have voted for the Democratic candidate in each of the last three presidential elections. Polls often show something like 85-5 and the results are usually closer to 96-3 or 96-4.  There have definitely been some small shifts towards Republicans among blacks and hispanics from 2016-2018 that polling and actual elections have picked up, and this could continue.  These shifts are a lot smaller than the shifts in the opposite direction among whites, but they could definitely matter on the margins in some places.

[tagimaucia]

Another thing about these minor shifts towards Republicans is that... Republican support among blacks and hispanics is still so, so much worse than it was in 2004 and earlier.  The minor recovery that Republicans have possibly started to make is really a drop in the bucket compared to how far they fell in the prior 12 years.