Yes, he had a 17 point lead until halfway through September, they evened out of course, but they always do.
If he had defended the 'Willie Nelson' shpeal, pushed hard against Iran-Contra with Bush, and then not f'd up the Death Penalty Question. Dukakis could have pushed against the Reagan debt, and attacked the Reagan administration, but due to their popularity, it would have been tricky. I think if he had stuck to a strong message about his backstory and his 10 strong years in the Massachusetts Governor's Mansion, he would have beaten Bush.
The crime attack ads (both Willie Horton and Revolving Door and there may have been other) and the ensuing perception of him being naive and "soft on crime" hurt him more than anything. Plus Reagan had approval ratings solidly over 50 percent and the economy was doing well, so how effective could attacking Reagan be if most people liked him? The incumbent party only loses in that scenario if their candidate screws up royally.
