Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oh yeah, that special election for Maldonado's State Senate seat in California is next week.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like the Republican won in California, by a 49-44 margin, about what the performance was in the "primary".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Guess we have to resurrect this thread; there are two special elections in Louisiana today, SD-2 and HD-5. Of course, there's no threat of a party change: four Democrats are running in the former, two Republicans are in the latter.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Time to resurrect the thread for reals: specials for the two state legislative seats vacated by victorious Republicans Robert Hurt (SD-19) and Morgan Griffith (HD-08) have been set for January 11. Both are pretty Republican seats, but Democrats are actually coughing up a decent candidate for Hurt's seat, a county supervisor. However, they don't have a candidate for the House district yet. It's a five-way race for the Republican nomination in SD-19, while only one has stepped up for HD-08 (and has been endorsed by Griffith), so he's probably going to sail into office.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Great news, Alvin Greene is back:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101227/ap_on_re_us/us_sc_house_greene

He's running for a South Carolina House seat that opened up because the incumbent died.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pre-election fundraising reports for the two specials in Virginia next week:

SD-19

Bill Stanley (R) - $65k raised, $24k on hand
Hank Davis (D) - $52k raised, $14k on hand

HD-08

Greg Habeeb (R) - $138k raised, $67k on hand
Ginger Mumpower (D) - $27k raised, $3k on hand

Both districts are pretty Republican, but the Republicans nominated the worst candidate of the bunch in SD-19, so that one might at least be interesting.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There were two elections yesterday, one in Iowa and one in California, both Republican holds.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

California was Senate, Iowa was House.

Tomorrow is the day of the two specials in Virginia. Nothing exciting is expected from either.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like easy holds for the Republicans; it's currently 60-40 in the Senate race and 65-35 in the House race. Not unexpected, of course.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There were two specials in Mississippi as well, for Nunnelee and Palazzo's seats. Republicans held both (one outright, one is going to a runoff between two Republicans).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think this gives Republicans a 27 to 25 edge in the MS State Senate.

It's tied, but it doesn't really matter as there was a de facto Republican majority supported by some Democrats. Either way, there will probably be a few party switchers now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another state Senate race in Iowa last night; Republican hold, unsurprisingly.

There's another Virginia House seat up on March 8, the 91st; Republican Tom Gear resigned due to complications from MS. Poquoson Mayor Gordon Helsel is the Republican nominee. He ran as an independent in 2009 and lost 48-33, with a Democrat in third at 19. Democrats might not run a candidate, since it's a heavily-Republican district and Helsel is pretty well-liked by everyone.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Two specials in Louisiana last night; D hold in a House seat (Cedric Richmond's) and an R pickup of a Senate seat held by a D-turned-I.

http://staticresults.sos.louisiana.gov/1222011_Legislative.html

Puts the Senate at a 19-19 tie with one vacancy, apparently. Who will be the first party-switcher to create a Republican majority?

Oh, and in the VA HD-91 special, nobody bothered to file, so Helsel is unopposed.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The primary for the SC House seat where folk hero Alvin Greene is running is on the 15th.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So far, out of 68 votes cast, Alvin Greene has no votes.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And that sexpot of a DFLer is winning by 30 points in Minnesota.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So far, out of 68 votes cast, Alvin Greene has no votes.

He ended up with 37 (0.9%).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Shaping up to be a pretty easy Dem hold, actually. Granger is winning in Vermillion, the biggest part of the district. I love Southern regionalism.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That's funny, now Granger is winning in Acadia (though only by a handful of votes) while losing in Vermillion.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Everything's in, and Perry wins by 688 votes.

It doesn't really matter for redistricting, since the Congressional map is going to be 5-1, and the Democrats are screwed when it comes to the state legislature. They're going to lose an entire Senate seat in New Orleans.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And Janet Peckinpaugh makes another run for office in the 36th, you can't forget her.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm guessing SD-13 might flip; it was pretty close at the gubernatorial level, and the incumbent only won 58-42 last year. The House seats don't seem particularly important, since the Democrats have a much larger majority there than in the Senate.

Edit: For the House seats, best odds are probably HD-36, 99, and/or 101 flipping.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like the Republicans picked up SD-13 and HD-101, while the Dems have held SD-06, HD-20, HD-25, and HD-36. Still no word on the other three.