Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).

Realistically the PRC is more concerned about separatism for my home province of Taiwan.  Northwest these days are pretty stable is very different from the more problematic  days of 2009-2013.

[jaichind]

Won't Germany just burn more coal?

No. There's a misconception that this issue is about power generation,* but it's actually more about heating and especially domestic heating. So it would mean importing more gas from elsewhere and, over the long-term, moving towards alternative methods of domestic heating. This would have the effect of shrinking the market for Russian gas in Germany - putting that at risk for the sake of post-imperial adventurism is certainly a choice, but we are where we are.

_{*The nuclear angle is also misunderstood: Germany hasn't spontaneously shut down all its nuclear power stations, it has simply opted not to replace any of its existing ones. All of its nuclear power stations were (are) fairly old, with the newest - the ones still in operation - opening in 1988-9. In practice a lot of other governments have done the same thing, largely on cost grounds.}

Correct me if I am wrong.  In 2021 nuclear power from 6 nuclear plants provided for 13% of Germany energy needs.  3 of them were shut down end of 2021 and the other 3 will be shut down at the end of 2022. 

[jaichind]

Of the sanctions the one that has the most bite is no trading of new Russian national debt.   The bank sancations mostly nominal in my view.  I think Russias have enough reserves and currency swaps with PRC to ride it out but if this one sticks aroind for a few years it will have an economic impact on Russia.   

[jaichind]

Kyiv Government to Impose State of Emergency

[jaichind]

I think WWII and Nazi comparisons should always be used with caution, but is it just me who reminds this of Hitler's Sudetenland playbook? At least there are similarities.

Why not the 1810 Republic of West Florida comparison ?

[jaichind]

"No comment" from India

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/escalation-of-tension-along-russia-ukraine-border-matter-of-deep-concern-india-at-un/article65073117.ece

"Deeply concerned over tensions, says India, but no comment on Russia’s recognition of Ukraine states"

Which wins praises from Russia

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/independent-and-balanced-russia-welcomes-indian-stand-on-ukraine-crisis-101645631388175.html

"‘Independent and balanced’: Russia welcomes Indian stand on Ukraine crisis"

[jaichind]

If Putin was that sane, he would focus on getting the Russian economy back to health.

BTW, so far this crisis is an economic bonanza for Russia.  The surge in energy prices and the weakening of the RUB have been a massive boost for Russian finances.  Even if Russia does a full-scale invasion and takes some losses they will most likely make a financial profit on this entire affair.  Clearly, in the long run, you cannot devalue your way to prosperity and this economic bonanza will translate into higher inflation just like Spain discovered when it got all that gold and silver from the New World.  But in the short run as long as Russia has access to sell its energy this entire crisis is working out great for Russian finances and economy.

[jaichind]

I am confused about how Putin can sell this domestically.   His new line is that the Ukraine government is an illegal regime.  He could have said that in 2014 and done this and at least there would be some logic to his reasoning.  But until recently that was not his line even internally.  How does he explain to the Russian people what is different now versus a few months ago?   

Also, he said NATO crossed the red line.  He could have said that during the last couple of rounds of NATO expansion. But is not clear what NATO did in the last few weeks to "cross the red line".  What he could have done is to give an ultimatium to NATO to legally preclude Ukraine from joining NATO by a certain date and not doing so crosses his red line.  If he did that there would be some logic to his current actions.  But he did not do that either.

I do not think the Russian population would view these actions as logical. 

[jaichind]

Bloomberg news: Russian Stock Market Rout Wipes Out $250 Billion in Value

Russian equities down to where it was at the beginning of the pandemic. 

[jaichind]

At this stage hopefully this is a rerun of 2008 Georgia where the Russian military achieves limited Russian political goals and the fighting can stop and Russian forces can pull back.  Sadly, the talk from Moscow seems to indicate the political goals are not limited so this might drag out for some time. 

[jaichind]

Boris Johnson says there will be "massive package of economic sanctions".

The core question still will be "will Russia be able to sell energy to the collective West and get paid for it?" Yes or No.  If Yes then nothing is "massive"

[jaichind]

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

Somebody else pointed out tonight that TECHNICALLY Russia was never appointed to the Security Council. The USSR was and then Russia wasn't kicked off the council after USSR became Russia. But by legal technicalities, Russia could be theoretically removed because it never went through the proper process or received approval of the UN to be on the council.

If you can do that then by the same logic ROC was the founding member of the Security Council so I think ROC should get back the China seat that it lost in 1971.  BTW, the current UN Security Council seat PRC has is still called "the ROC seat" since ROC was a founding member of UN and Security Council.

[jaichind]

Russian defense ministry claims Russian air force destroyed 74 ground targets, including 11 airfields in Ukraine

[jaichind]

The benchmark European gas prices are up 50% in some cases are many buyers are halting purchase of Russian gas for now until they are more clear about the nature of sanctions.

[jaichind]

Boris Johnson is pushing for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT.

[jaichind]

It seems Olaf Scholz indicated he cannot support cutting Russia off from SWIFT.

[jaichind]

Putin to Russian business leaders

"This is the main thing, for this to be clear: what is happening [in Ukraine] is a forced measure. We were simply left with no chance to act otherwise,"

"Of course, we all, and you too, understand the world we live in. And we were preparing one way or another for what is happening now in terms of restrictions and sanctions policy,"

"We are not going to inflict damage on the system of world economy that we ourselves are in. It seems to me, our partners should understand this and not set themselves the task of pushing us out of this system,"

[jaichind]

UBS cuts the value of Russian bonds to zero and triggering margin calls on counterparties/customers that hold them.

[jaichind]

Note that Eastern Ukraine is fairly flat and poorly suited for insurgency warfare.  In the 1941-1944 period most of the anti-German partisan were located in Belarus and Pinsk Marshes and were not present in Eastern Ukraine.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that "Biden Team Will Hold Off on Russia Sanctions Hitting Aluminum"

[jaichind]

BLAME FORMER PRESIDENT OBAMA FOR THIS! Romney warned about it, he wasn't heard and laughed off.

I disagree.  I was for Romney in 2012 and still back Romney over Obama in a rematch.  But Russia is not a threat to the USA, Russia is a threat to its neighbors.  The debate  was over who was a threat to USA.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports : "Kyiv may fall to Russian forces tonight as Ukraine’s air defenses have been effectively eliminated, according to a senior Western intelligence official.  Russian troops are advancing toward Ukraine down both sides of the Dnieper river and look set to take the capital, the official said. "

[jaichind]

President Biden says he will sanction five major Russian banks, in a speech from the White House.

US equity markets rally

[jaichind]

India has to tread carefully as Russia is their main arms supplier.

Arms they need to halt the Chinese from continually violating their territorial integrity.

This is why what PRC and Russia has is better than an alliance.  It is really two Great Powers that are coupled and act as one as needed and act separately as part of plausible deniability when necessary.  India's position on Russia would be a lot more negative if PRC and Russia were official allies.

[jaichind]

Markets have been up since Biden started speaking. What exactly was the market pricing in before, NATO to sever diplomatic relations with Russia? I don't understand what's going on here.

They were fearing worse like steps to shut down Russian exports of raw materials (metals and energy) to the rest of the world.