Both of your maps are extremely ridiculous. the first one possibly even more so than the second. basically, shift the popular vote 10 points in either direction and that's the biggest landslide that's realistically possible for either side in today's climate. So for the Democratic nominee, that would be Obama 2012 + North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. For Trump it would be 2016 + New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Mexico.
To be fair, this era of political polarization will come to an end eventually, and looking back at history, the polarization America saw post-Civil War was broken
(electorally, at least) in 1904 with a near-20 point win, which was a stark departure from previous elections.
Not to say it will definitely be broken in 2020, but just that if it is, things can quickly go in one direction or the other, at least based on historical precedent.
