Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

Are people talking about who will win the Likud primary (ie the number 2 spot) yet?

Presumably Erdan should get it pretty easily, since he's consistently been the top vote getter of the people still running.

He's always struck me as very generic though. I don't understand his appeal. Is there a chance Dannon could win? Netanyahu would have to be scared of that, right?

I don't think Dannon could win, there are too many people that dislike him, I would expect Ardan, Yisrael Katz, or maybe Silvan to win, as they don't have as many enemies.

[Hnv1]

Also interesting:
Meretz released the names of the 20 candidates who are running for a spot on the Meretz list (21 if you include Galon). Relatively few new names I don't see either Ben Reuven or Golan on the list (maybe hnv1 can elaborate). Meretz has a fairly odd system of voting where the 1000 members of the committee vote for three five member brackets: 2-6, 7-11, 12-16. There are ten people running for the first bracket: the MKs, former MKs Avshalom Vilan (kibbutznik) and Mossi Raz (peace activist), former B'tselem USA director Uri Zaki, Tel Aviv city councilwoman Gaby Laksy, and Ron Shavit, who I think is a journalist.

The most interesting names running for the second and third bracket are Jerusalem councilwoman Laura Wharton, former chief Rabbi of the Masorti movement Rabbi Ehud Bandel, and current New Israel Fund officer and Negev kibbutznik Avi Dabush.

EDIT: Here's the link-it's all in Hebrew unfortunately

Yeah the system is pretty weird (it's also gender balanceed, meaning every second spot is reserved for women). Why are only national convention members voting on the list? well back in the days the Kibbutz had an unbalanced power amongs members and this day the Tel Aviv branch has unbalanced power and this system assures a fairer race.

Well the very quick process (they local primaries and the national primaries are a week apart) forced  by the shock elections made  it very hard for new outside contenders to compete. None of them had a functioning election staff yet (part for Dabush).

There are no new "big" name. Zaki was umber 10 in 2013, Lasky ran in 2009. Vilan and Raz run every time (the joke is what ever spot Raz is Meretz get minus 2 mandates). Ron Shavit was a minor journalist. Nir Lahav is big in the cooperative movement, and Itai Svirsky is the leader of a new democratic workers' union Kock Laovdim - power to the workers). The rest are pretty mediocre local figures.

The downside of this process is the election are almost 60% pre-set by the 4-5 different groups of the convention.

Regarding the Likud I think it will be Ardan at #2 (generic and avoids conflicts) and than Katz (the opposite). Either way the interesting primaries will be that of the JH

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the overall mood in Likud right now? Is it going to be like last time where there was a slaughter of the moderates?

[danny]

What's the overall mood in Likud right now? Is it going to be like last time where there was a slaughter of the moderates?

Predicting Primaries is hard, but I expect that almost all the incumbents running again will be fine.

[MalaspinaGold]

Also interesting:
Meretz released the names of the 20 candidates who are running for a spot on the Meretz list (21 if you include Galon). Relatively few new names I don't see either Ben Reuven or Golan on the list (maybe hnv1 can elaborate). Meretz has a fairly odd system of voting where the 1000 members of the committee vote for three five member brackets: 2-6, 7-11, 12-16. There are ten people running for the first bracket: the MKs, former MKs Avshalom Vilan (kibbutznik) and Mossi Raz (peace activist), former B'tselem USA director Uri Zaki, Tel Aviv city councilwoman Gaby Laksy, and Ron Shavit, who I think is a journalist.

The most interesting names running for the second and third bracket are Jerusalem councilwoman Laura Wharton, former chief Rabbi of the Masorti movement Rabbi Ehud Bandel, and current New Israel Fund officer and Negev kibbutznik Avi Dabush.

EDIT: Here's the link-it's all in Hebrew unfortunately

Yeah the system is pretty weird (it's also gender balanceed, meaning every second spot is reserved for women). Why are only national convention members voting on the list? well back in the days the Kibbutz had an unbalanced power amongs members and this day the Tel Aviv branch has unbalanced power and this system assures a fairer race.

Well the very quick process (they local primaries and the national primaries are a week apart) forced  by the shock elections made  it very hard for new outside contenders to compete. None of them had a functioning election staff yet (part for Dabush).

There are no new "big" name. Zaki was umber 10 in 2013, Lasky ran in 2009. Vilan and Raz run every time (the joke is what ever spot Raz is Meretz get minus 2 mandates). Ron Shavit was a minor journalist. Nir Lahav is big in the cooperative movement, and Itai Svirsky is the leader of a new democratic workers' union Kock Laovdim - power to the workers). The rest are pretty mediocre local figures.

The downside of this process is the election are almost 60% pre-set by the 4-5 different groups of the convention.

Regarding the Likud I think it will be Ardan at #2 (generic and avoids conflicts) and than Katz (the opposite). Either way the interesting primaries will be that of the JH

What happened to Ben Reuven and Golan? Was there a problem with paperwork or something or did they back out? Also have you figured out how you will be voting for the first and second brackets?

What's the overall mood in Likud right now? Is it going to be like last time where there was a slaughter of the moderates?

What moderates are there left to slaughter?

[Famous Mortimer]

What moderates are there left to slaughter?

True enough.

It would still be unpleasant for Netanyahu though, if Danon and Feiglin went up on the list and his own favored candidates stayed static or went down.

Apparently Netanyahu favors Akunis, Hanegbi and Hotovely.

[MalaspinaGold]

So... this happened:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.634376

[danny]

Deri and Yishai have been an entertaining mess this election.

[Vosem]

In other news, Benet has reserved a spot on the list for his new recruit, newscaster Yinon Magal. Haaretz notes vaguely that "some in the party were unhappy" with Benet reserving a spot for Magal; Arutz Sheva goes in more depth (as might be expected of a website that doesn't hide its support for Benet/religious Zionism), explaining that the two noted sources of criticism are Rabbi Shimon Or and Raz Kiel, who are both new recruits running in the Jewish Home's primaries; basically they're angry no spot is reserved for them.

Also, Uzi Landau, who served as a Likud MK from 1984-2006 and then a Yisrael Beiteinu MK 2009-present, and was in the Cabinet under Sharon's Likud government and then throughout Netanyahu's second government, announced his retirement from politics amid Yisrael Beiteinu continuing to sink in the polls (though his reelection was probably assured; the party is above the threshold in all polling, and he was #2 on the list in 2009 and #3 of Yisrael Beiteinu's list in 2013). He is 71; this means there will be no remaining MKs left from before the 1988 election, though there are still many left from 1988, absolutely none have continuous service (!); though former Labor leader Amir Peretz will be the most-senior member of the Knesset, as his only break since 1988 was a resignation in 2012, and he returned in 2013.

EDIT: Also, I haven't been able to find English-language reporting on the results of Meretz's primaries, which I believe took place yesterday. Hnv, I know you're a party member -- have the results been announced yet? If so, what are they?

[MalaspinaGold]

Apparently in his move to the center, Lieberman was plotting to kick his right flank off the island... the three the article mentioned were Landau, Shamir, and Rotem. Maybe Landau got the hint early?

[Vosem]

Apparently in his move to the center, Lieberman was plotting to kick his right flank off the island... the three the article mentioned were Landau, Shamir, and Rotem. Maybe Landau got the hint early?

Kicking Shamir off would be a pretty remarkable move just 2 years after recruiting him and giving him the #2 spot. Rotem would make sense; he's been around since 2007 and has made enemies in that time.

JPost has an article about the Likud primaries. All current Likud MKs, with the exception of veteran MK and minister Limor Livnat, are seeking reelection. JPost lists five prominent non-incumbent candidates: Avi Dichter, who was a Kadima MK from 2006-2012, and a minister under Olmert and Netanyahu; Ayub Kara, a Druze who has been a Likud MK from 1999-2006 and 2009-2013; Michael Ratzon, who was a Likud MK 2003-2006; Nava Boker, the widow of former Israeli Police Commissioner Lior Boker; and Jerusalem city councilman Yair Gabbay. Likud currently has 19 MKs (18 seeking reelection) and is expected to gain a number in the low 20s, so a few of these people may well (re)enter the Knesset.

[Famous Mortimer]

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

[Vosem]

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

[MalaspinaGold]

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

*3 new members- Ben Dahan decided to run with JH rather than accept a reserved spot.

[Vosem]

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

*3 new members- Ben Dahan decided to run with JH rather than accept a reserved spot.

Who's the third member since Ben-Dahan decided to stay with Jewish Home? (He's one of those 4 Tkuma members).

Also, since we're talking about these right-wing factions, I have a question -- does Moledet still exist? It definitely existed as a faction within the National Union during the 2009-2013 Knesset, when Ya'akov Katz was widely reported to be its sole MK. In 2013, Hatikva and Eretz Yisrael Shelanu merged to form Otzma LeYisrael, which was excluded from the Knesset, while Tkuma and Moledet joined with Jewish Home. But while it's known who the members of JH are that are really part of Tkuma, it's not clear whether any Jewish Home MKs consider themselves to be part of Moledet, or if Katz was really the final one.

[MalaspinaGold]

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

*3 new members- Ben Dahan decided to run with JH rather than accept a reserved spot.

Who's the third member since Ben-Dahan decided to stay with Jewish Home? (He's one of those 4 Tkuma members).

Also, since we're talking about these right-wing factions, I have a question -- does Moledet still exist? It definitely existed as a faction within the National Union during the 2009-2013 Knesset, when Ya'akov Katz was widely reported to be its sole MK. In 2013, Hatikva and Eretz Yisrael Shelanu merged to form Otzma LeYisrael, which was excluded from the Knesset, while Tkuma and Moledet joined with Jewish Home. But while it's known who the members of JH are that are really part of Tkuma, it's not clear whether any Jewish Home MKs consider themselves to be part of Moledet, or if Katz was really the final one.

The three members are Ariel, Stuck, and Kalfa. Chetboun was not a part of Tekumah.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't know if Moledet still exists but the guy who was their leader, American born Uri Bank, is running in the Jewish Home primaries. He seems to be running a serious campaign as well. Last time he didn't really try and ended up like 20th on the Jewish Home list.

Also, I don't think Ya'akov Katz was a member of Moledet, I know it was reported but I think it was wrong. I think he wasn't a member of any particular faction within the National Union.

[Vosem]

How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

*3 new members- Ben Dahan decided to run with JH rather than accept a reserved spot.

Who's the third member since Ben-Dahan decided to stay with Jewish Home? (He's one of those 4 Tkuma members).

Also, since we're talking about these right-wing factions, I have a question -- does Moledet still exist? It definitely existed as a faction within the National Union during the 2009-2013 Knesset, when Ya'akov Katz was widely reported to be its sole MK. In 2013, Hatikva and Eretz Yisrael Shelanu merged to form Otzma LeYisrael, which was excluded from the Knesset, while Tkuma and Moledet joined with Jewish Home. But while it's known who the members of JH are that are really part of Tkuma, it's not clear whether any Jewish Home MKs consider themselves to be part of Moledet, or if Katz was really the final one.

The three members are Ariel, Stuck, and Kalfa. Chetboun was not a part of Tekumah.

Chetboun wasn't, but Ben-Dahan was...but when I searched for a source to prove it I discovered he switched to 'regular' Jewish Home to protest Tkuma considering running with HaAm Itanu (which it didn't, but still...). So your post was absolutely right. Tkuma still has four spots "reserved", which'll presumably go to Ariel, Strook, Kalfa, and a new person.

[Hnv1]

Also interesting:
Meretz released the names of the 20 candidates who are running for a spot on the Meretz list (21 if you include Galon). Relatively few new names I don't see either Ben Reuven or Golan on the list (maybe hnv1 can elaborate). Meretz has a fairly odd system of voting where the 1000 members of the committee vote for three five member brackets: 2-6, 7-11, 12-16. There are ten people running for the first bracket: the MKs, former MKs Avshalom Vilan (kibbutznik) and Mossi Raz (peace activist), former B'tselem USA director Uri Zaki, Tel Aviv city councilwoman Gaby Laksy, and Ron Shavit, who I think is a journalist.

The most interesting names running for the second and third bracket are Jerusalem councilwoman Laura Wharton, former chief Rabbi of the Masorti movement Rabbi Ehud Bandel, and current New Israel Fund officer and Negev kibbutznik Avi Dabush.

EDIT: Here's the link-it's all in Hebrew unfortunately

Yeah the system is pretty weird (it's also gender balanceed, meaning every second spot is reserved for women). Why are only national convention members voting on the list? well back in the days the Kibbutz had an unbalanced power amongs members and this day the Tel Aviv branch has unbalanced power and this system assures a fairer race.

Well the very quick process (they local primaries and the national primaries are a week apart) forced  by the shock elections made  it very hard for new outside contenders to compete. None of them had a functioning election staff yet (part for Dabush).

There are no new "big" name. Zaki was umber 10 in 2013, Lasky ran in 2009. Vilan and Raz run every time (the joke is what ever spot Raz is Meretz get minus 2 mandates). Ron Shavit was a minor journalist. Nir Lahav is big in the cooperative movement, and Itai Svirsky is the leader of a new democratic workers' union Kock Laovdim - power to the workers). The rest are pretty mediocre local figures.

The downside of this process is the election are almost 60% pre-set by the 4-5 different groups of the convention.

Regarding the Likud I think it will be Ardan at #2 (generic and avoids conflicts) and than Katz (the opposite). Either way the interesting primaries will be that of the JH

What happened to Ben Reuven and Golan? Was there a problem with paperwork or something or did they back out? Also have you figured out how you will be voting for the first and second brackets?

Yep they backed off due to the short timescale I reckon.
Haven't fully set my mind yet but probabely Raz, Gilon, Zandberg, Freg will be in the first 5. On the second one I'm still undecided...

Yesterday was not the primaries for the party list but rather for electing representatives to the national convention. Primaries will be held in 2 weeks I think.

[Famous Mortimer]

Deri resigned the Knesset!

[Vosem]

Yesterday was not the primaries for the party list but rather for electing representatives to the national convention. Primaries will be held in 2 weeks I think.

Oh, I see.

Deri resigned the Knesset!

And called for Ariel Atias to replace him in both the Knesset and as party leader. Shas' Council of Torah Sages rejected his resignation as leader of the party when the tape was first released, so they may still ask Deri to lead Shas in the elections.

[Famous Mortimer]

Did he announce he was resigning the Knesset at the same time as he tried to step down as party leader?

It was my understanding that he asked to resign as party leader, that request was rejected by the Torah Scholars or whatever, and now he's gone over their head by resigning the Knesset.

[Vosem]

Did he announce he was resigning the Knesset at the same time as he tried to step down as party leader?

It was my understanding that he asked to resign as party leader, that request was rejected by the Torah Scholars or whatever, and now he's gone over their head by resigning the Knesset.

No. The timeline is, Yishai leaked the tapes. Deri asked the Council to resign as party leader. They refused. Now he's resigned from the Knesset, and in his (public) resignation letter he refused the rabbis' refusal of his resignation and recommended ex-MK Atias to replace him. On Arutz Sheva they quote a few Shas MKs defending Deri and expressing support for the Council in their attempt to get him to reconsider. It also says Deri will meet with the rabbis on Tuesday (that is, today), so there may be more information out very soon.

In centrist-party news, Yesh Atid MK Adi Koll announced she won't be seeking reelection; she wasn't a minister, but she was #9 on the list in 2013, which would've been a realistic but not guaranteed slot today. Also, Kachlon is reportedly recruiting the Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem, Rachel Azaria, who is an "Orthodox feminist", to join him on his list -- she checks a lot of boxes.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think the most surprising development in Israeli politics in the last decade is that no one defected from Yesh Atid.

[MalaspinaGold]

All the Shas MKs also tendered resignation letters....
http://www.timesofisrael.com/shas-party-leader-deri-set-to-resign/

We'll see if the Rabbis accept it. It could just be that Deri is hoping for an outpouring of support. He still has two days in which to revoke it.