Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

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Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

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Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

I am misunderstanding something about the agreements. Could you describe again how they work?

By largest average ZU gets the seat from Meretz, not the other way around. What am I doing wrong?

I'm probably wrong in some way about how they work as well; I just assumed Meretz would get the seat since they have more remainder (.86 to .56) than Zionist Union does

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Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

I am misunderstanding something about the agreements. Could you describe again how they work?

By largest average ZU gets the seat from Meretz, not the other way around. What am I doing wrong?

I'm probably wrong in some way about how they work as well; I just assumed Meretz would get the seat since they have more remainder (.86 to .56) than Zionist Union does

It is the largest average, not the largest remainder. So ZU gets that one, and Meretz picks up its own from the general surplus. But JL, even with 13.80 quotas still has 33,466 voters per seat, whereas UTJ has 33,805, so it gets the last seat, if I am doing my calculation right. JL needs just a tiny bit more.

What exactly do you mean by largest average? Wikipedia isn't helping me here, unfortunately. My best guess is that you mean the larger of the two parties, but I feel like that's incorrect.

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Lol, this election has been extremely funny but the crying leftist people over here might be even more funny. It's a shame that my party, the Jewish Home, has been losing some seats, but it's happened for the greater good and Bennett will get a good Ministry anyway - probably Defense. I hope Likud will get this extra seat - number 30.

I strongly, strongly doubt Bennett will receive Defense. Likud will be a larger presence in this government than in the last one, while Jewish Home will be less important, so I can't imagine them giving up the Defense post. It will most likely be Ya'alon again.

JL has already counted more votes than Labor received in 2013. They will have to be taken seriously.

Let's see them stay together first. The reason the Joint List is so remarkable and historic is that the groups within it have never allied before -- certainly not in Israel, probably not in any other country either.

Would Yesh Atid be a possible coalition partner instead of some of the Orthodox parties, or instead of Kulanu?

Instead of the Orthodox parties is a possibility, considering Lieberman really doesn't want to sit with Orthodox parties and Bennett isn't much of a fan of them either, but it's unlikely, since Lapid has broadly aligned himself with ZU and Meretz during the campaign, didn't get along with Bibi when they were in government, and that Bibi has preferred alliances with Orthodox parties in the past. It wouldn't be as surprising as Labor joining Netanyahu back in 2009, though.

Instead of Kulanu would mean a coalition of Lapid together with the Orthodox parties, and that is extremely doubtful.

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So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

Everybody is drafted, except for Arabs and (so far) the Haredi. So, it is not clear who is getting an extra seat (Likud would not be the prime candidate), but, yeah, JL is not likely to get its 14th (though UTJ is likely to loose its 7th).

"Envelope vote" includes several different groups, including soldiers but also prisoners. Last year, the result was to shift a single Knesset seat from the United Arab List (Ra'am) to the Jewish Home. But they were both on the line. Considering there are very few Haredi soldiers or prisoners in Israel, but Arabs are overrepresented in the prison population, I don't think it's out of the question that the envelope vote has the opposite effect this year and shifts a seat from United Torah Judaism to the Joint List -- it's only a few hundred votes that need to be made up.

The no statehood pledge brought Jewish Home members to likud to prop it up. That's why JH lost a third of its strength. It also possibly explains why Yachad missed the threshold.

It doesn't explain why Likud hit 29 seats though...

In the poll average, Likud was at 21-24 seats; let's say they were slightly underestimated, and they were at the high end of that. Let's say they got a seat from Bibi convincing non-voters to vote for him with his announcement, another three from JH, and another from Yahad. It quite easily adds up to 29.

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So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

Yep. And, BTW, very likely it is exactly the one that is going to hold. Because another 10 years, and the Arabs will not be asking for a state.

Why not?

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Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

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Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

Nvm, I found a place -- small moshav in the north called, funnily enough, Lapidot. Results from there:

28% Kulanu
25% Likud
18% Shas
12% Zionist Union
6% Meretz
5% Yesh Atid
remainder others

Basically just a vote split. But most other parties -- even small ones like Meretz, Yahad, and Yisrael Beiteinu -- have strongholds they won overwhelmingly. Not the case for Kulanu.

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Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

They won in some Druze places like Daliat Al-Karmel Isfiya, Hurfesh.

Akram Hassoon should really have been higher on the list than twelfth place

Daliyat Al-Karmel is a 38-23 victory for Kulanu over Labor; not much of a landslide by Israeli municipality standards, but impressive for Kulanu. (It's a little unreal in a democratic society to see town after town having a result of over 95% for the Joint List).

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There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

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There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

Actually YA had two Ethiopian MK's Shimon Solomon was number 12 on the list in 2013.

Ah, you're right, I forgot about him since he didn't run for reelection.

There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

No, we would have all been better off had Likud gotten fewer than 27 seats. Preferably a lot fewer.

Several other parties had Ethiopians somewhere on their list -- for instance, had Yesh Atid reached 13, the same end would've been achieved. I think you can agree with me that, in principle, the Ethiopian community is very distinct, even by Israeli standards, and that it's healthy and democratic for at least one person in the Knesset to be of Ethiopian origin. MK-elect Negusa will fulfill that role.

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Sure, but I think most of our reactions to MK-elect Negusa are more 'sour grapes' than 'good news'.

Well, I'm of a different ideological strand than most of us here. But I do think it is a bright spot for anyone following the Israeli election

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So Labor didn't elect their Druze after all but Yisrael Beytenu did.

As did Likud.

Have the envelope votes been counted already? Are these results nearly final, or are they actually final final?

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Also from Labour activists I gather Holdai (mayor of tel aviv) also has hopes for leadership.

Huldai's been mayor since 1998 though; he's had plenty of opportunities to seek the party leadership, or a spot in the Knesset, if he wants it, but he's never gone for it.

Anyway, I agree that Diskin wants in and that he'll probably run at the next elections, but I tend to think with his performance Herzog has earned himself a round two, and it'll be difficult for someone else to take over. But of course, I'm not Israeli and could well be mistaken.

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It appears that the joint list lost a seat and will get 13, Meretz is up to 5. Likud will indeed finish with 30 and UTJ will make do with 6.

Does this mean Gal-On stays? She said she would resign if Meretz got only 4. Barely 5 is not good, but it is above the bare minimum.

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Ilan Shohat, who was #4 on the YB Knesset list, and was therefore elected, has announced that he will not take his seat in the Knesset -- instead, MK Robert Ilatov, who was #7 on the list, will continue. Ilatov has been a Knesset member since 2006.

Under 2009/2013 results, when YB got 15 and then 11-13 seats, #4 on the YB list was basically a ticket into the Cabinet, but with the party holding only 6 seats I doubt they'll get more than 2 ministers (Lieberman and Landver, most likely).

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Shall we wager how long it is before that one MK decides that they want another election?

The Tkuma group in the Jewish Home (2 MKs) said they would leave if Uri Ariel did not become Justice Minister. It looks like that position will go to Ayelet Shaked instead, so it may be very soon.

Of course, the flip-side of the coin, any 1 MK from any party who feels like having a cut of power can also join. There may be individual members of Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, or even Labour who can be swayed.

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Very interested to see who "we're keeping the Foreign Ministry within the Likud" means. Silvan Shalom has held the post before, but that was under the Sharon government, which is no longer remembered fondly, and he seems past his prime in any case. Ze'ev Elkin and Tzachi Hanegbi have both been Deputy FM under Netanyahu; or, if he's going to promote one of the lesser ministers, Gilad Erdan, Yuval Steinitz, and Yisrael Katz are all possibilities. Whoever gets the position will become one of the frontrunners to replace Netanyahu whenever it is that Bibi chooses to leave.

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And the makeup of Netanyahu's government has been announced, and this is how it will look, at least for the first few months. Netanyahu will have three positions besides PM -- he is also Minister of Communications, Foreign Affairs, and Health (along with Regional Cooperation, which is more of a title than a position with any real power). The last two are rumored to be reserved for any additional party (probably YB) who intends to join the coalition government anytime later.

Prime Minister: Binyamin Netanyahu (Likud)
Minister of Agriculture: Uri Ariel (Jewish Home)
Minister of Communications: Binyamin Netanyahu (Likud)
Minister of Construction: Yoav Galant (Kulanu)
Minister of Culture: Miri Regev (Likud)
Minister of Defense: Moshe Ya'alon (Likud)
Minister for the Development of the Negev and Galilee: Aryeh Deri (Shas)
Minister of the Economy: Aryeh Deri (Shas)
Minister of Education: Naftali Bennett (Jewish Home)
Minister of Energy: Yuval Steinitz (Likud)
Minister of Environmental Protection: Avi Gabai (Kulanu) -- not a Knesset member, Kulanu party president
Minister of Finance: Moshe Kachlon (Kulanu)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Binyamin Netanyahu (Likud)
Minister of Gender Equality: Gila Gamliel (Likud) -- new position?
Minister of Health: Binyamin Netanyahu (Likud)
Minister of Immigrant Absorption: Ze'ev Elkin (Likud)
Minister of Intelligence: Yisrael Katz (Likud)
Minister of Internal Affairs: Silvan Shalom (Likud)
Minister of Justice: Ayelet Shaked (Jewish Home)
Minister of Pensioner Affairs: Gila Gamliel (Likud)
Minister of Public Diplomacy & Diaspora Affairs: Naftali Bennett (Jewish Home)
Minister of Public Security: Yariv Levin (Likud)
Minister of Religious Affairs: David Azulai (Shas)
Minister of Regional Cooperation: Binyamin Netanyahu (Likud)
Minister of Science: Danny Danon (Likud)
Minister of Strategic Affairs: Ze'ev Elkin (Likud)
Minister of Tourism: Yariv Levin (Likud)
Minister of Transportation: Yisrael Katz (Likud)
Minister of Welfare: Haim Katz (Likud)
Minister(s) without Portfolio: Ofir Akunis (Likud), Benny Begin (Likud)

Most ministers have more than one title (which reflects the abundance of titles that Israel has created over the past ten years more than anything else), but two ministers without portfolio were still appointed. Counting Netanyahu himself and the ministers without portfolio, there are 13 Likud ministers, 3 Kulanu ministers, 3 Jewish Home ministers, and 2 Shas ministers.

Notably, #2 on the Likud list, Gilad Erdan, demanded the Foreign Affairs position and refused to take any other. After having been in Cabinet for six years, Erdan is retreating to the backbenches. #3, Yuli-Yoel Edelstein, naturally did not take a position as he is the Speaker of the Knesset. #4-17 all received posts except Tzachi Hanegbi (a long-time Knesset member who will chair several choice committees instead) and David Bitan, the highest-ranked freshman on the Likud list. Kulanu appointed #1-2 and the party president. Jewish Home appointed #1-3. Notably, the two ministers from Shas will be party leader Aryeh Deri (#1, obviously) and David Azulai, who was only #5 on the list and has never been in Cabinet despite having been in the Knesset since 1996, or for 19 years, throughout most of which his party was part of the government.

Outside of the government, Yitzhak Herzog was confirmed to be Leader of the Opposition.