Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Vosem]

Knesset Jeremy is out with his new average today, for the week of February 8-14, 2015. Unfortunately, they only add up to 118 seats, with 4 parties being very close to gaining one more seat -- Likud, Jewish Home, Joint List, and Yahad. I used last week's polls as tiebreakers, so the extra seats went to Likud and JH.

February 8-14, 2015 polling average:
Likud (Netanyahu) 25
Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Jewish Home (Bennett) 13
Joint List (Odeh) 12
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 10
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Shas (Deri) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The only change from last week's average is that Zionist Union lost a seat (the 24th) to Yisrael Beiteinu (the 6th) -- specifically, Eyal Ben-Reuven to Hamad Amar. We can say therefore, that at least for the time being, YB's slide in the polls has halted and they may have hit a floor. Not much else to be said.

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Minister of Pensioner Affairs, MK from Bayit Yehudi, and author of children's books () Uri Orbach passed away this morning of a hematologic condition. He was 54 years old -- far too young. On the Jewish Home list for 2015, everyone below slot 7, which he had, will be bumped up a slot. It isn't clear yet who will get his Knesset seat, and his Minister post will probably remain vacant until after the elections.

[Vosem]

Knesset Jeremy is out with his average for February 15-21, 2015. This one adds up perfectly to 120 seats when each party is rounded to the nearest number, so there's no need for judgement calls on who would get extra seats.

February 15-21, 2015 polling average:
Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 24
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Joint List (Odeh) 12
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 11
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Shas (Deri) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The center-left made some gains from the right over the last week. Jewish Home and Likud both lost a seat, while Yesh Atid and the Zionist Union gained a seat each. (This means Orit Strook and Nava Boker have lost their seats to Mickey Levy and Eyal Ben-Reuven). Netanyahu is of course still (overwhelmingly) favored to become the next Prime Minister, but the past week was still a good one for Herzog.

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Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!

Regardless, Knesset Jeremy is out with his average for the week of February 22-28, 2015. The numbers conveniently round to exactly 120 seats. One notable change that ag should like is that, while Jewish Home and the Joint List are still both projected to get 12 seats, the Joint List has moved ahead of Jewish Home for third place in the popular vote. These polls were all conducted prior to the debate, so any effects of that debate are yet to be seen.

February 22-28, 2015 polling average:
Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 23
Joint List (Odeh) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Shas (Deri) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The story was the same as that of last week; small gains from the right to the center-left, which leave the right still likely to install the Prime Minister. This week, the only change in terms of seats was Likud losing a single seat to Yesh Atid (specifically, former MK Ayoob Kara, a Druze who is the highest-ranked non-Jew on the Likud list, to current MK Elazar Stern, a floor-crosser from Hatnuah to Yesh Atid).

[Vosem]

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!

Well, I guess, there are many things you cannot follow. Hard to explain, really: you either do come to this yourself, or not.

To sympathy for professional thieves and terror? I certainly hope I don't anytime soon

[Vosem]

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!

Well, I guess, there are many things you cannot follow. Hard to explain, really: you either do come to this yourself, or not.

To sympathy for professional thieves and terror? I certainly hope I don't anytime soon

Please identify what and from whom was stolen by Tamar Guzansky, and also in which acts of terror was she personally involved, or else I would have to consider you a bullshootter.

Tamar Gozansky is, as you know full well, a prominent member of Maki, a communist party whose ultimate goal, like that all of other communist parties, to steal from the innocent populace in order to aid "the poor" (who in most cases don't seem to ever see much of it). It is also a party that has protested, just over the course of the past decade, Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon, which seems to indicate some degree of sympathy for Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively.

Tamar Gozansky, I strongly doubt, has ever stolen something or terrorized someone, but she's worked much of her life to make these things easier for others.

[Vosem]

So, she never, to the best of your knowledge, stole anything from anyone. Nor, for that matter, did the party she belonged to - though they might do that under certain circumstances. Nevertheless, in your definition, they are "thieves". If there is a definition of bullshyte, this is it.

Someone who publicly says "we intend to steal these things, but unfortunately X keeps us from doing so" with pride is still morally culpable.

You do not need to lecture me on Communism - I have been an anti-communist since before you were born.

I have never said you do not have redeeming characteristics.

However, when God created Israel, he took three characteristics: 1) Jewishness, 2) basic human decency, and 3) supporting anybody but the Communists in Israel - and ruled that nobody can possess more than two out of three of these. Naturally, this puts me into a bind.

Into a bind of having some sort of weird discriminatory attitudes towards Israeli Jews, where you don't believe their state has a right to defense or the necessary high level of morality to hold national elections?

I'll make myself clearer: can an Arab/Druze support anyone he/she wants, while retaining human decency?

Yes, of course. In Israel.

Has the question of why it is that most Druze support Zionist parties ever crossed your mind?

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

There is doubt, communism is the antithesis of freedom.

LOL ...coming from a Likudnik .

My grandparents were communists , they were part of building the kibbutz movement , Rabin's parents were communists .

There is a difference, morally, between being a communist in 1915 (when the ideology was completely untested) or even 1950 (when it's results were still not widely known) and being a communist in 2015, when what results from the adoption of the ideology is common knowledge around the world.

Tamar Gozanski is a true FF and like most western-commies don't care much for the revolution and spend most of their time helping poor and oppressed people.

How has she done this? I'm not asking you in a hostile tone -- I'm legitimately curious about what it is that Gozansky can be said to have achieved.

Your remark regarding a correlation between opposing the Gaza war and supporting Hamas is beyond absurd.

Of course most of the people in the west, including in Israel, who have opposed the Gaza wars do not see themselves as strengthening Hamas. That's well-known.

[Vosem]

Into a bind of having some sort of weird discriminatory attitudes towards Israeli Jews, where you don't believe their state has a right to defense or the necessary high level of morality to hold national elections?

Nothing discriminatory. Part of my Jewish self-identification is that I do not like ispravniks of any origin. Unfortunately, all other Israeli parties have been parties of ispravniks. And I identify with the Jews. Which, in Israeli context, means Arabs.

You're using ispravnik in a sense totally divorced from its historical context, the way the radical left likes to use "fascist" and the American right likes to use "socialist" -- meaning nothing more than "political grouping I don't like". You continue to give no actual reason for not liking them.

Condensing the discussion a bit, the problem is that, in Israeli context, even I would have been forced to join the Communist party - though, of course, ideologically I am as staunch an anti-communist as it gets. Unfortunately, at this point this is the only non-communal party - there are simply no other options available.

This is rather ridiculous; Hadash, Meretz, and Avoda are all clearly bicommunal parties, and if you include Druze as a minority you quickly grow to include all the non-religious parties. But more to the point, it's a common thing worldwide for national minorities to vote en masse for their own parties, or for one of the main option to the exclusion of others; does the presence of the SSW in Southern Schleswig make all the other parties non-communal? Are Republicans non-communal because 95% of blacks vote Democratic?

  But that, of course, means, that you cannot make too many conclusions about an individual from his or her membership in the Communist party - there may be many good reasons to be there.

The floor is yours -- please tell us what they are.

Now, of course, M. Liberman has forced the Communists to join a communal joint list, killing the last available alternative. But, at the very least, they still do have some separate identity (thank you, Mr. Khenin and Mr. Burg).

Eh, I don't think they've had as much as Meretz. Could be wrong though.

[Vosem]

1. In my idiolect I use ispravnik to mean "the guy who cuts Jewish beards". I admit, I do not even pretend to use it in a historic context. Try to abstract from the "historic context" and you will, hopefully, figure out what I mean.

Do you really think the Communists would refrain from cutting beards, or govern more justly than these "ispravniks"?

2. As you can, probably, figure out, I have a problem considering any Zionist party "bicommunal".

I figured it out, but this is a ridiculous position, since without Zionism your "bicommunalism" would not even be possible.

3. The reason, of course, is, that, while I share with most of my Jewish brethren the fascination with Jewish history, I disagree on the lessons we are supposed to have learnt from it. Whereas I get from history the distaste to the figure of the ispravnik, Zionists merely objected to the ispravnik not being Jewish. I find that objection to be inadequate.

On the contrary -- it is Zionism that has freed Jews around the world from the figure of the ispravnik, in Russia, across Europe, and in North Africa, by permitting them a place to go when the depredations become too much.

3a. Well, clearly, a party that these days, at the present level of diversity of US population, is represented in Congress almost exclusively by White Christians (a token Jew and a token black notwhithstanding) can hardly be perceived as non-communal.

The point of the post (which I don't think you missed) is that, because of community solidarity in minority communities, bicommunalism the way you define it can be virtually impossible to achieve, and leave you in the unenviable position of supporting very extremist parties because of it. The Republican Party is not a threat to Jews and blacks, even though they largely support its opponents. While there is a lot more bad blood in Israel, Likud is not much of a threat to Israeli Arabs either (who are, in fact, exempt from the draft -- it's probably more of a threat to your typical Israeli Jew).

4. Well, I guess, it is hard for me to be more explicit on why one could want to join Hadash (or to stay as far away from Israel as possible, in order to avoid joining Hadash, as is my case). To make it very plain: I do not like the ispravnik parties.

Then refrain from supporting ispravnik parties (the way you define them), which are Balad, Hadash, and the UAL at the one end, and Shas, UTJ, and Yahad at the other.

More generally: I dislike nation states.

What party do you suppport in Mexico that denies Mexico being a state established for Mexicans?

5. Meretz is a Zionist party.

You won't catch me defending Meretz (which, unlike Hadash's token historical leftovers, is an actual bicommunal party, though still largely majority Jewish) too often, but it is precisely Meretz's Zionism and acknowledgement of human rights that make it a democratic party acceptable in a democratic society.

I guess, I have been clear, haven´t I?

You have certainly been repetitive, but you've been as clear as mud.

What else is a national homeland good for, if not to get your own ispravnik?

How are you going to avoid ispravniks without having a national homeland?

Then again, I am related by marriage to this gentleman

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Dragunsky

Can´t say I am proud of this either

Ah -- a fantastic example of an actual ispravnik, of the sort Zionists have been striving -- thankfully, largely successfully -- to liberate Jews from since Herzl first put pen to paper.

And, in any case, shouldn´t we care not only about not being killed, but also about not killing?

How is that relevant? Israel isn't Lebanon or Syria.

There are other ways of achieving that. As, for instance, the United States has strived to.

On the contrary -- the history of the United States begins as one of religious minorities fleeing persecution (and ispravniks) to set up their own state elsewhere where they can govern themselves.

[Vosem]

Ah -- a fantastic example of an actual ispravnik, of the sort Zionists have been striving -- thankfully, largely successfully -- to liberate Jews from since Herzl first put pen to paper.

While Gen. Dragunsky was, obviously, a lot braver in battle than in peace,

This is true -- General Dragunsky, too, was not without redeeming qualities.

whose beard has he cut, exactly?

The Jews who were not allowed to leave the Soviet Union for a friendlier sky (as in Israel or the United States), or, like Natan Sharansky, were imprisoned for their Zionism. By endorsing such things, he gave them the veneer of acceptability.

Back on topic, this happened:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.645114
Marzel should be sitting in jail right now.

Agreed (though it doesn't, for me, make Zoabi a more sympathetic figure).

Do you really think the Communists would refrain from cutting beards, or govern more justly than these "ispravniks"?

Which communists? You seem to ignore a very crucial distinction here.

In that quote, I meant the Israeli ones who are part of the party "Hadash", but it doesn't particularly matter; it could apply to any country I can think of with a prominent Communist party off the top of my head.

[Vosem]

On the contrary -- the history of the United States begins as one of religious minorities fleeing persecution (and ispravniks) to set up their own state elsewhere where they can govern themselves.

They did not need a nation-state - still less, a theocracy, to do that.

It's the other way around -- firstly, they tried to make do without a nation-state, and what ended up happening is the ispravniks followed them across the ocean. Only once they finally established one, in the American Revolution, did they free themselves.

In that quote, I meant the Israeli ones who are part of the party "Hadash", but it doesn't particularly matter; it could apply to any country I can think of with a prominent Communist party off the top of my head.

I see no evidence they would be any worse than any random collection of people pulled of the street.

I see no evidence in Israeli elections that the median person pulled off the street would have an ideology so horrible.

Then refrain from supporting ispravnik parties (the way you define them), which are Balad, Hadash, and the UAL at the one end, and Shas, UTJ, and Yahad at the other.
 

Whose beards have they cut?

They are minority parties -- they have not yet managed to cut many beards. It is that they shout, and loudly, for oppression.

Actually, I will be a lot more in sympathy with, say, UTJ than with Likud.  Yes, they are medeival religious fanatics - but they never pretended to be anything else. But, then, they are what Jews were all these centuries of persecution. They want to maintain that lifestyle our ancestors died for - it is their choice. Of course, I would object to them imposing their lifestyle on me (or anybody else). But I have no problem supporting their desire to live their way. In particular, I find it horrifying that in Israel it is considered somehow "modern" or "progressive" to try to force these guys to serve in the army. As a proud draft dodger myself, I really find that attrocious. And attrociously anti-Jewish.

Of course, you understand that UTJ does try to impose their lifestyle on those around them through small battles over lifestyle (by trying to regulate where people sit in buses, or what it is women can wear outside).

How is that relevant? Israel isn't Lebanon or Syria.

This is the most horrible thing you have said so far.

The average Israeli, be they Arab or Jewish, has the fantastic opportunity of living out his life not worrying that rival militias will kill him, or that he will need to protect his family from them. This is not the case in some of Israel's neighbors. You seemed to be implying that it was also not the case in the State of Israel.

You won't catch me defending Meretz (which, unlike Hadash's token historical leftovers, is an actual bicommunal party, though still largely majority Jewish) too often, but it is precisely Meretz's Zionism and acknowledgement of human rights that make it a democratic party acceptable in a democratic society.

What does Zionism have to do with human rights (except in the breach, of course)?

It takes an astonishing amount of doublethink to oppose Zionism but support human rights.

The point of the post (which I don't think you missed) is that, because of community solidarity in minority communities, bicommunalism the way you define it can be virtually impossible to achieve, and leave you in the unenviable position of supporting very extremist parties because of it. The Republican Party is not a threat to Jews and blacks, even though they largely support its opponents. While there is a lot more bad blood in Israel, Likud is not much of a threat to Israeli Arabs either (who are, in fact, exempt from the draft -- it's probably more of a threat to your typical Israeli Jew).

Being a Jew means being a minority. When they became a majority, they stopped being Jews.

This is the most horrible thing you've said so far. By what right do you tell someone they forfeit their ethnic identity by living somewhere, or consign a people to the status of an eternal minority? It's a shame "Israeli" isn't a race, because if it was I would know what to call your beliefs.

[Vosem]

Our friend Vosem here would object to saying that some Communists long ago were not vurdalacs, by pointing out that what matters is the actual, implemented Communism.

Not only is that not what I think, I've spoken to the contrary in this very thread:

There is a difference, morally, between being a communist in 1915 (when the ideology was completely untested) or even 1950 (when it's results were still not widely known) and being a communist in 2015, when what results from the adoption of the ideology is common knowledge around the world.

...

Einstein, whatever his ideas were, has nothing to do with actual implementation of the Zionist idea. May be, somewhere in another universe, there would exist a non-ispravnik state of Israel. But we only have one empirically observed implementation to consider.

You can start looking for one by reading the present State of Israel's Wikipedia article.

[Vosem]

This is the most horrible thing you've said so far. By what right do you tell someone they forfeit their ethnic identity by living somewhere, or consign a people to the status of an eternal minority? It's a shame "Israeli" isn't a race, because if it was I would know what to call your beliefs.

"Israeli" is a "race", as far as I am concerned - an "ethnic group", to be more precise, or a "people". Have nothing against them, as long as they do not pretend to be Jews.

But they are Jews -- or, at least, some 80% of them are. Their ancestors have been through all the same tribulations and trials as yours.

You are entitled to think what you want. Those who thinks only Zionists can be Jews are entitled to think what they want. Neither view has any inkling of support outside of pathos. Just something to consider.

You are absolutely right. They do not want to have anything to do with me, I do not want to have anything to do with them, so, in fact, we have a perfect coincidence of wants - no trouble whatsoever between me and proper Israeli nationalists.

It's completely the opposite -- you're invited to join them at any time, regardless of what opinions you might've held beforehand.

It is those inbetween that we all have a problem with.

Those between you and proper Israeli nationalists? I must confess I can't imagine the two of you plotted on the same line, so I don't know what comes between you.

You can start looking for one by reading the present State of Israel's Wikipedia article.

And, what is it that I would find there?

You would read about a democratic state, with a Jewish majority and an Arab minority, that has a long record of treating all of its citizens as equal under the law (though it is defined as a state for the majority, as many states are), which is particularly impressive when you consider the atrocious records of its neighbors. You would also read about a state that has been attacked, for the identity ("race", if you will) of its people, time and time again, and then been blamed for defending itself -- the way, for instance, a child who finally snaps and breaks the schoolyard bully's arm will be suspended, not the bully.

They are minority parties -- they have not yet managed to cut many beards.

And that is EXACTLY what I like about them. If they were majority parties, I would choose somebody else

You won't like them once you hand them razors.

You are entitled to think what you want. Those who thinks only Zionists can be Jews are entitled to think what they want. Neither view has any inkling of support outside of pathos. Just something to consider.

You are absolutely right. They do not want to have anything to do with me, I do not want to have anything to do with them, so, in fact, we have a perfect coincidence of wants - no trouble whatsoever between me and proper Israeli nationalists. It is those inbetween that we all have a problem with.

In that case I, as a proud member of the in-between vote to kick you all off the communal boat. Problem solved.

Perfect. And we shall just acknowledge that instead of one Jewish people there are a few dozens. That is exactly what I want.

There are, in fact, many dozens of subdivisions of Jewish people, no one group more Jewish than any other, but that does not mean "Jewish" as a category is any less legitimate.

It takes an astonishing amount of doublethink to oppose Zionism but support human rights.

It takes a complete ignorance of both the notions of Zionism and of human rights to think there is anything whatsoever conceptually realting the two.

Supporting human rights is incompatible with opposing the notion of people getting a homeland in which they are free from ispravniks, prejudice, and dictatorship, and supporting that these things be torn down.

This is the most horrible thing you've said so far. By what right do you tell someone they forfeit their ethnic identity by living somewhere, or consign a people to the status of an eternal minority? It's a shame "Israeli" isn't a race, because if it was I would know what to call your beliefs.

Let me be clear. I do not care how anybody else defines Jewishness. I have my own definition of it. In Israel, Arabs are the Jews and the Jews are the ispravniks. That is all.

Why would you ever support a party like Hadash then? In the last Knesset, 25% of its delegation were ispravniks.

[Vosem]

There are, in fact, many dozens of subdivisions of Jewish people, no one group more Jewish than any other, but that does not mean "Jewish" as a category is any less legitimate.

Everything is legitimate. I am telling you my personal characterization - the one that I have found useful. That is all.

But you just told me 6 million self-identified Jews living in Israel are not, in fact, Jews at all.

Why would you ever support a party like Hadash then? In the last Knesset, 25% of its delegation were ispravniks.

Isrpavnik, like being - or not - in a majority, is a state of mind.

So it's just entirely arbitrary, with those who agree with you not being ispravniks and those who disagree being such? In that case we're right back where we started.

Comrade Khenin, is, obviously, Jewish.

I agree with this, though perhaps not for the same reason as you.

More likely, there would be 4: the Haredim, the racists, the rabid anti-Zionists, and everyone else. I am fairly confident which would include the majority of the Jewish people, and thus would get priority over the word.

Many, many more. Sefardim, Ashkenazim, Russians, Georgians, atheists, Upper Eastsiders, etc. etc. The more the merrier!

The difference is that the Sefardi will not call the Ashkenazi any less of a Jew, nor will the Upper Eastsider to the Ethiopian, nor the Russian to the atheist. Hence they are all part of the "everyone else" category.

May be - or may be not. Today one may say one thing - tomorrow, something quite different

Do you not think the Jews around the world are speaking in good faith?

As a confirmed schismatic, this is exactly what I would like. You know, if you have 3 Jews, you should have, at least, 4 parties, shouldn´t you?

Ag, is "Jew" a synonym for "minority", or is there something more to it? I'm confused.

But they are Jews -- or, at least, some 80% of them are. Their ancestors have been through all the same tribulations and trials as yours.

Which is why I find their betrayal of the memory of our ancestors somewhat disconcerting.

Would you rather they betrayed the ancestors who worked so hard to establish the Zionist movement in Europe, move it to the Middle East, and triumph, and have remained for all time under the rule of the ispravniks?

You dodge the point. That by your own definition, they are Jewish.

By the way, are the Ethiopians Jewish, because they are also a minority in Israel? I need to figure out exactly how much of a SJW you are.

Some of them are, and some of the are not. Naturally, the most Jewish of them are the Christians.

The Christians who seemed to flee to a state full of so-called "ispravniks" for protection. Hmm...

You would read about a democratic state, with a Jewish majority and an Arab minority, that has a long record of treating all of its citizens as equal under the law (though it is defined as a state for the majority, as many states are), which is particularly impressive when you consider the atrocious records of its neighbors. You would also read about a state that has been attacked, for the identity ("race", if you will) of its people, time and time again, and then been blamed for defending itself -- the way, for instance, a child who finally snaps and breaks the schoolyard bully's arm will be suspended, not the bully.

Many thinks look good on Wikipedia, I know.

Read elsewhere, so long as it is not a biased news source.

[Vosem]

Those between you and proper Israeli nationalists? I must confess I can't imagine the two of you plotted on the same line, so I don't know what comes between you.

Well, I have no problem with Israeli-born guys, who love their country, find it self-sufficient, identify with their native Hebrew - and do not want to bother about the Russians, etc. As long as they consider the Zionist project done with and would view me (if I were to come to Israel) as no different from a Thai migrant (as long, of coruse, they do not mind the Thai migrants), I am fine with them. In other words, I what I object to is Israel being called a Jewish state - because I object to the pretence Jews need a state. I do not mind Israeli Jews having their state, though.

You don't mind, I hope, Israeli-born guys who feel an attachment to other Jews around the world, who try to help them in their hour of need? (Such as Ethiopian Jews in the 1980s, soon afterward Russian Jews, etc.)

So you are saying that the Zionist left is Jewish. And that also the Ethiopians are Jewish? Does this extend to the Russian Jews also?

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. For that matter, it used to extend to Tutsis in Rwanda, you know.

Were Hutus Jews prior to Tutsis being Jews? Do any Jews live in Rwanda today?

I like this conversation: it has acquired the right shade of insanity, without which talking about Jewishness is impossible.

Me too -- I would not otherwise still be talking.

Supporting human rights is incompatible with opposing the notion of people getting a homeland in which they are free from ispravniks, prejudice, and dictatorship, and supporting that these things be torn down.

But that has exactly nothing to do with Zionism, does it?

Read again, more closely. I defined Zionism for you.

Ag, is "Jew" a synonym for "minority", or is there something more to it? I'm confused.

It is not enough to BE a member of a minority. One has to FEEL a minority to be Jewish.

On that note, are American Jews Jewish? They are a minority, true, but not in any particular way a persecuted one.

Самое важное - знать, что ни в синоде, ни в сенате тебе места нет.

Конечно. Есть синагога и кнессет, куда мы приглашены.

[Vosem]

Would you rather they betrayed the ancestors who worked so hard to establish the Zionist movement in Europe, move it to the Middle East, and triumph, and have remained for all time under the rule of the ispravniks?

My ancestors did not. By then we have diverged. Though, I guess, one of my great grand fathers (or, may be, a generation further) - did go to Palestine, but quickly came back.

To my knowledge, neither did mine. (My grandfather went to Israel, but he quickly died there). We are speaking of the ancestors of modern Israeli Jews.

Do you not think the Jews around the world are speaking in good faith?

Of course they are speaking in good faith. And always saying different things.

But the question is whether you think, all of a sudden, they will all change their minds.

Comrade Khenin, is, obviously, Jewish.

I agree with this, though perhaps not for the same reason as you.

Wrong reasoning sometimes gives the right answer. Just try calculating 16/64 by canceling the sixes

Quite the appropriate example (if a bit simplified), since I am replying to you and working on some late-night calculus simultaneously.

[Vosem]

Question: You are opposed to a Jewish state, a Jewish state in Holy Land (like the Montreal Hasidics) or just opposed to religion-based states?

Great question.

1. I think the original Zionist idea was harebrained. If some Jews wanted to be a part of a majority they always could assimilate. What made the Jewish community unique was precisely its perseverence in the Diaspora. The Zionists despised what really made Jews Jewish in my eyes, so they get no sympathy from me.

No Jew at that time would've said that what made Jews unique was their status as a minority -- it was their unique traditions and values, which they were trying (successfully) to protect.

3. I do not particularly like religion-based (or, for that matter, nation-based) states, but I realize they exist and will exist for a long time to come. Do not have any problem with that, really. As long as they do not try to imply that I somehow should have any sort of allegiance to them.

Not should -- but can, if you ever want to.

Read again, more closely. I defined Zionism for you.

And Communism, of course, is merely love for thy neighbor. If you agree with that definition, I agree with your definition of Zionism.

Why, communism is the seizure of private property, forced collectivization, shortages, and limitations imposed on internal movement, speech, and the practice of religion. We are speaking of what the two movements have actually done.

On that note, are American Jews Jewish? They are a minority, true, but not in any particular way a persecuted one.

Those of them who do not scream when they hear words "Judeo-Christian" aren't.

How many Jews in the world do you think are Jewish? (If you can understand the question.)

Конечно. Есть синагога и кнессет, куда мы приглашены.

До меня приглашение не дошло.

То что от приглашения отказался (как и моя семья), не означает что оно не дошло (и считать что не должно ни до кого не дойти, когда сам получил, довольно эгоистично). 

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I'm not going to go back over the last three pages and critique ag's inane comments word-for-word, like I was doing previously, but I will just note that this conversation began as ag criticizing nationalism (while he is now rejecting certain foods on a nationalistic basis) and has shifted towards ag apparently supporting Ashkenazi traditions -- forgetting that the desire to return to Israel was (in some places, still is), of course, one of the most-treasured and important of these, expressed every year at Passover.

[Vosem]

I'm not going to go back over the last three pages and critique ag's inane comments word-for-word, like I was doing previously, but I will just note that this conversation began as ag criticizing nationalism (while he is now rejecting certain foods on a nationalistic basis) and has shifted towards ag apparently supporting Ashkenazi traditions -- forgetting that the desire to return to Israel was (in some places, still is), of course, one of the most-treasured and important of these, expressed every year at Passover.

Well, among the important Ashkenazic traditions of recent lore has been devote Marxism. And, even as a convinced bourgeois counterrevolutionary I would not renounce that

A trait we share with many groups, though one we've moved away from more than others have. But basically, this is true

[Vosem]

Knesset Jeremy was out with his average for the week of March 1-7, 2015, today. The numbers add up conveniently to exactly 120 seats.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Likud (Netanyahu) 23
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The changes this week were very small and insignificant; the gains of the center-left made during the past two weeks seemed to stall. The only change in terms of seats was the loss of a seat by the Zionist Union to the Joint List (specifically, Eyal Ben-Reuven to Abdullah Abu Ma'aruf); this will probably make it harder on balance for the left to install a Prime Minister, since the Joint List will not participate in the government.

[Vosem]

Tali Ploskov, sixth on Kulanu's list, was born in Moldova, and I suspect you've missed a few others. But, very unfortunately, your basic point about the decline of Russians in the Knesset does stand

[Vosem]

Knesset Jeremy was out with his average for the week of March 1-7, 2015, today. The numbers add up conveniently to exactly 120 seats.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Likud (Netanyahu) 23
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

I've had a busy weekend and missed Knesset Jeremy's last poll average, for the week of March 8-13, 2015. The numbers added up to exactly 120 seats once again.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 22
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 9
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 5
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The rush to the center from the right continued over the course of the final week. Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu lost one seat each (specifically, Netanyahu's personal choice Anat Berko and rightist Druze MK Hamad Amar) to Zionist Union and Kulanu, which gained a seat each (specifically, Eyal Ben-Reuven and Roy Folkman).

For sh**ts and giggles, I also worked out what the numbers would be if all parties over or underperform exactly the way they did in 2013. This would put Yahad under the threshold at only a 2-seat performance, so the last two seats would be given to the two parties who came closest to an extra seat in KJ's final prediction -- the Zionist Union and Yesh Atid. Would be a big leftist overperformance if this was the case (of course, so was 2013):

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 21
Likud (Netanyahu) 20
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Jewish Home (Bennett) 10
Kulanu (Kahlon) 9
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 4

My personal prediction is:

Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 19
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 13
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 12
Shas (Deri) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 4
Meretz (Gal-On) 4
Yahad (Yishai) 4

Which is basically just some minor modifications of the polls in terms of who normally over/underperforms and who I think has momentum.

[Vosem]

After 1.993M votes (should be 47.2% of the total):

Likud: 24.81
ZU: 18.87
YA: 8.8
Kulanu: 7.68
JL: 8.1
JH: 6.21
Lieberman: 5.85
Shas: 6.12
UTJ: 5.17
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.00

If these numbers were final (which of course they won't be):
Likud 31
ZU 24
YA 11
JL 10
Kulanu 10
JH 8
Shas 8
YB 7
UTJ 6
Meretz 5

[Vosem]

Right now, Likud leads Zionist Union, 30-24. ZU is performing exactly as they were supposed to; it is Likud which surged. Also, while Yesh Atid is in third place, they are only at 11 seats, which is a little less than they were supposed to get; this looks more impressive than it is because Joint List was supposed to do even better than that, and they are also at just 11 (and slightly behind Yesh in the popular vote).

[Vosem]

Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

I don't think so; Herzog may stay. Even if the Zionist Union doesn't improve from where it is now (24 seats and second place), this is clearly the best result for Labor since 1999, when they won 26 seats and their last first place to date. This is their first second place since 2006, and their first >20 result since 1999. Considering Yachimovich was barely thrown out after 2013 (which she sold as an improvement compared to 2009), when the Labor Party significantly underperformed in polling, I doubt Herzog will be thrown out after performing roughly as they were supposed to. I think he gets another shot whenever the next election is.