I find it doubtful that the Dems win back the house in 2018 short of truly terrible approval for Trump/Reps. My logic is simplistic but I think sound: married white home-owners are the core midterm voting population (and best distributed geographically) and this group has trended heavily away from the Dems in the past 8 years. I think its a trend that wont be easily reversed in the short term.
Rural is a bit of a misnomer, its really whites outside of major metro areas (1.5M +). Every metro area in PA and upstate NY trended toward Trump. Metro regions like Buffalo, Scranton, Syracuse, Allentown aren't exactly rural (trend was consistent across the country).
