The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.

Whether President Trump will be unpopular in the late summer and early autumn of 2018 is yet to be known. But if he should be unpopular enough, Democrats will have  enough of an edge in the national popular vote for the House that they can swing as many as 42 House seats by winning districts that are up to R+5... enough for an unambiguous majority. That would take about a 55-45 split in the vote.  But if enough people want to constrain him, that is what they will have to do.

2006 Dems won the national popular vote by around 8%, so that's totally doable.

Also... odd finding... the GOP won the House of Reps popular vote in 2016 by a 1% margin... Dems gained 6 seats... so, the Dems are really only facing a national PVI penalty of around 2%. A 6% Dem margin would be enough to win the House if that is applied broadly.

Wait, I'm sorry, you'll have to explain that logic to me.  Why would a 6% Dem. margin be enough to win the House?  I don't follow.

I was a bit inarticulate, but you actually prove my point above. You said Mia Love won with a 12.5% margin, when the Dems are down 1% nationally... well, if you increase the Dems by 6%, and the GOP drops by 6%, then that's 12%. I should have said swing, not margin.

Well yeah, if they actually manage to win nationally by ~11 or 12 points, they win the House, sure.  Of course, they haven't actually won by 11+ points since 1982.  It's a heck of a swing.  I think the more interesting question is whether they can win some of those seats they lost this time by 12, 13, 14 points even if the national margin only shifts by ~7 or 8 points.  Is that likely?  Or has their structural disadvantage really grown so much now that they need to win the popular vote by more than they've managed to do so since 1982 in order to get a majority of seats?

[Person Man]

I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.

Whether President Trump will be unpopular in the late summer and early autumn of 2018 is yet to be known. But if he should be unpopular enough, Democrats will have  enough of an edge in the national popular vote for the House that they can swing as many as 42 House seats by winning districts that are up to R+5... enough for an unambiguous majority. That would take about a 55-45 split in the vote.  But if enough people want to constrain him, that is what they will have to do.

2006 Dems won the national popular vote by around 8%, so that's totally doable.

Also... odd finding... the GOP won the House of Reps popular vote in 2016 by a 1% margin... Dems gained 6 seats... so, the Dems are really only facing a national PVI penalty of around 2%. A 6% Dem margin would be enough to win the House if that is applied broadly.

Wait, I'm sorry, you'll have to explain that logic to me.  Why would a 6% Dem. margin be enough to win the House?  I don't follow.

I was a bit inarticulate, but you actually prove my point above. You said Mia Love won with a 12.5% margin, when the Dems are down 1% nationally... well, if you increase the Dems by 6%, and the GOP drops by 6%, then that's 12%. I should have said swing, not margin.

Well yeah, if they actually manage to win nationally by ~11 or 12 points, they win the House, sure.  Of course, they haven't actually won by 11+ points since 1982.  It's a heck of a swing.  I think the more interesting question is whether they can win some of those seats they lost this time by 12, 13, 14 points even if the national margin only shifts by ~7 or 8 points.  Is that likely?  Or has their structural disadvantage really grown so much now that they need to win the popular vote by more than they've managed to do so since 1982 in order to get a majority of seats?

People were saying this in 2005 and they still pulled through. For all we know, the gerrymander is 8 years old and now might not be as powerful as populations have changed.

[Devout Centrist]

Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.

That didn't happen under Obama, so color me skeptical. Look, maybe you guys are right and 2018, 2020 and 2022 will all be big Democratic landslide years just because Trump is in the White House and demographics are changing, but all I'm saying is don't be too surprised if Rs manage to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate in 2018 or if they keep the House. You'd think after what happened in 2014 and 2016 (when people like Wiz in Wis predicted Democratic landslides), Democrats wouldn't be making overconfident predictions anymore. Oh well...

If I was polled, I'd definitely say "disapprove" but I still wouldn't vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.

Even at his nadir, Obama never went below 38%, unlike extremely unpopular presidents like GWB and Carter.

[publicunofficial]

Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.

That didn't happen under Obama, so color me skeptical. Look, maybe you guys are right and 2018, 2020 and 2022 will all be big Democratic landslide years just because Trump is in the White House and demographics are changing, but all I'm saying is don't be too surprised if Rs manage to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate in 2018 or if they keep the House. You'd think after what happened in 2014 and 2016 (when people like Wiz in Wis predicted Democratic landslides), Democrats wouldn't be making overconfident predictions anymore. Oh well...

If I was polled, I'd definitely say "disapprove" but I still wouldn't vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.

Well if there's a D wave in 2020, surely 2022 would be an R year.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 2-4:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b58-d712-adda-bf78cc9d0001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b5a-d7b6-a15e-5b5fe03e0001

approve 47%
disapprove 46%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +7
Northeast: -8
South: +6
West: -2

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +12
blacks: -53
Hispanics: -13

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: 0
$50-100k: +5
over $100k: -1

[The_Doctor]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 2-4:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b58-d712-adda-bf78cc9d0001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b5a-d7b6-a15e-5b5fe03e0001

approve 47%
disapprove 46%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +7
Northeast: -8
South: +6
West: -2

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +12
blacks: -53
Hispanics: -13

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: 0
$50-100k: +5
over $100k: -1

This sounds about right.

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 2-4:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b58-d712-adda-bf78cc9d0001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-1b5a-d7b6-a15e-5b5fe03e0001

approve 47%
disapprove 46%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +7
Northeast: -8
South: +6
West: -2

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +12
blacks: -53
Hispanics: -13

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: 0
$50-100k: +5
over $100k: -1

This is a 7% net decrease from their last poll (Jan 26 – Jan 28).

[Mr. Morden]

Still amazing to me that we have a Republican president who is doing as bad or worse among those making over $100,000 as he is with those making under $50,000.  It's not just this one poll, as we've seen it in quite a few polls recently.  I mean, I understand why it's happening, but imagine showing those numbers to a political observer from 30 years ago.

[heatcharger]

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44/49 with RV. That's 7 point fall in net approval from their poll a week ago. Also weird that his disapproval number is higher with them than among all adults.

[Tender Branson]

SurveyUSA did a national favorable rating poll among 1.207 RV, Monday and Tuesday:

46-50 Donald Trump
47-44 Mike Pence
25-42 Steve Bannon
33-42 Kellyanne Conway
27-34 Jared Kushner

53-34 New York Times
52-34 Washington Post
54-38 CNN
54-42 FOX News
49-38 MSNBC
22-32 Matt Drudge
18-39 Breitbart
56-36 SNL

57-40 Barack Obama
43-52 Hillary Clinton

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baeb0e3c-2056-4057-b9ee-8f02adb98bfd

SUSA also released the following statement:

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http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Statement-from-SurveyUSA-CEO-Jay-H-Leve-020717.pdf

[pbrower2a]

The Democrats have a solution for winning the Presidency in 2020 -- nominate the political figure most similar to former President Obama in  ideology and temperament. Basically another Eisenhower.

[Tender Branson]

MI - EPIC MRA:

Favorable ratings

39-48 Trump
44-46 Snyder
59-37 Obama

Overall, based on what you have heard or read, how would you rate the job that has been done so far by Donald Trump during the transition and now as President – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

40% Excellent/Good
54% Fair/Poor

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Rick Snyder as Michigan’s Governor – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

37% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://woodtv.com/2017/02/08/poll-majority-unhappy-with-president-trumps-start

[pbrower2a]

MI - EPIC MRA:

Favorable ratings

39-48 Trump
44-46 Snyder
59-37 Obama

Overall, based on what you have heard or read, how would you rate the job that has been done so far by Donald Trump during the transition and now as President – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

40% Excellent/Good
54% Fair/Poor

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Rick Snyder as Michigan’s Governor – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

37% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://woodtv.com/2017/02/08/poll-majority-unhappy-with-president-trumps-start

Not a great pollster, but it's telling that the results are much like those in Florida and North Carolina for the President. Democrats have a good chance of doing very well in Michigan in 2018, which means taking the Governorship, protecting what would be a vulnerable Senate seat if the Trump trend shown in 2016 were to hold, and even picking off a couple of House seats.  State legislature? Too little data.

Republicans have been governing Michigan as if it were Oklahoma... that may end in early 2019.

[Mr. Morden]

SurveyUSA did a national favorable rating poll among 1.207 RV, Monday and Tuesday:

46-50 Donald Trump
47-44 Mike Pence
25-42 Steve Bannon
33-42 Kellyanne Conway
27-34 Jared Kushner

53-34 New York Times
52-34 Washington Post
54-38 CNN
54-42 FOX News
49-38 MSNBC
22-32 Matt Drudge
18-39 Breitbart
56-36 SNL

57-40 Barack Obama
43-52 Hillary Clinton

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baeb0e3c-2056-4057-b9ee-8f02adb98bfd

Trump favorability margin by region…
Midwest: -7
Northeast: -10
South: +4
West: -9

[Wiz in Wis]

Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.

That didn't happen under Obama, so color me skeptical. Look, maybe you guys are right and 2018, 2020 and 2022 will all be big Democratic landslide years just because Trump is in the White House and demographics are changing, but all I'm saying is don't be too surprised if Rs manage to pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate in 2018 or if they keep the House. You'd think after what happened in 2014 and 2016 (when people like Wiz in Wis predicted Democratic landslides), Democrats wouldn't be making overconfident predictions anymore. Oh well...

If I was polled, I'd definitely say "disapprove" but I still wouldn't vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.

I predicted a "Democratic Landslide in 2014"!?!? [citation needed]

[pbrower2a]

Michigan. It barely went for President Trump, and this poll suggests that the state will turn sharply against Republicans in 2018 and 2020. President Trump gets poor approval and favorability ratings, and so does the incumbent Republican Governor. Favorability and approval are not significantly different this time.

Because of the "excellent-good-fair-poor" alternative, I would ordinarily reject this... but at this stage it is better than nothing, and the pollster clearly states that 'fair' is an unflattering rating.
Democrats will protect their incumbent Senator effectively and will elect the next Governor, if the trend holds.

President Trump will get no help from the new Michigan governor in 2020. I have no idea of whether Governor Snyder suppressed the vote in Michigan, but his Democratic successor certainly won't.

Global warming can't undo this political Winter of Discontent.

... Seeming outlier polls in Florida and North Carolina, two states that also barely went for Donald Trump, aren't so preposterous after all.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[Wiz in Wis]

First Emerson Poll - Pretty favorable to Trump:

BOSTON, MA – The first poll of Emerson College’s Spring 2017 semester shows the nation is split on Donald Trump’s performance as President so far with 48% of registered voters approving of the job that Trump is doing, versus 47% that disapprove. Republicans approve of Trump 89%/5%, while Democrats disapprove of the President by a margin of 81% to 17%. Trump’s failure to pass the 50% threshold for approval can be accredited to his standing among independents, who disapprove of him 52%/42%.
 
A key finding of the poll shows that voters find the Trump administration to be more truthful than the news media. The Trump administration is considered truthful by 49% of voters, to 48% of voters who consider it untruthful. Meanwhile, the news media is considered untruthful by a 53%-majority of registered voters, to only 39% who find them truthful (a 14-point gap). Numerous members of the Trump administration – including Trump himself – have been criticized frequently for making false statements. The partisan split on this topic is clear – 89% of Republicans find the Trump administration truthful, versus 77% of Democrats who find the administration untruthful. Conversely, 69% of Democrats find the news media truthful, while a whopping 91% of Republicans consider them untruthful. Independents consider both untruthful – the Trump administration by a margin of 42%/52% and the news media by a margin of 45%/47%.
 
Trump’s nomination of GOP mega-donor Betsy DeVos for Secretary of Education is opposed by a majority, 51%, of registered voters. Only 34% of registered voters support DeVos’ nomination to the cabinet post, while roughly 15% remain undecided on the controversial nominee. DeVos’ nomination is opposed by voters who attended both public and private school, but voters who attended public school – of which DeVos’ is a strong opponent – oppose her nomination by a significant 19-point margin, 32%/51%. Voters who attended private school also oppose DeVos’ nomination, but by a smaller 11-point margin, 42%/51%.
 
Trump’s other high-profile nominees are more popular among voters. Attorney General nominee Jeff Sessions is supported by 45% of registered voters versus 40% who oppose him. Newly confirmed Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has the support of 48% of voters, to only 33% who oppose him, a 15-point margin of support. Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court, is supported by voters 52%/32%.
 
Similarly, voters prefer Gorsuch to former Obama nominee Merrick Garland by a 10-point margin, 39%/29%, though 14% of voters indicated that they would prefer somebody else altogether. 18% of Democrats side with Gorsuch, versus 8% of Republicans who side with Garland. Independents are evenly split between the two – each judge receives 28% support from independent voters, while 26% of independents want somebody else.
 
Kellyanne Conway, a frequent face of the administration on television who recently made headlines by coining the phrase “alternative facts,” holds a favorability ratio of 39%/45%, a net favorability of -6%. Significantly less popular is Steve Bannon, a controversial figure in the administration who is viewed favorably by only 34% of voters, while 47% view him unfavorably – a net favorability of -13%.
 
Trump does not yet appear to be a drag on Republican congressional candidates. In a hypothetical match-up for the next congressional election, a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican by a slim, 2-point margin, 48%/46%. The generic Democrat currently has the edge with independents by an 18-point margin, 54%/36%. However, Republicans have been able to keep the race close due to a lack of party unity on the Democratic side – 12% of Democrats currently say they will vote for a generic Republican, versus only 4% of Republicans who say they will vote for a generic Democrat.
 
CALLER ID
The national Emerson College poll was conducted February 5-6 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only registered voters, n=617, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The national data was weighted by 2016 election results, gender, party affiliation, race, age and region. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown and school carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only.

http://www.theecps.com/

[Gass3268]

Lol if Emerson only shows him up 1

[Devout Centrist]

Why are we still using RV's right now?

[Wiz in Wis]

Why are we still using RV's right now?

No idea. Makes it harder to compare polls.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup: 43/53

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup: 43/52

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Omgg Clinton still more unpopular than the president what the f**k...

[BigRedFred]

But he's God Emperor!

Exaclty. After his death the Nords, I mean Trump supporters will start to worship him and call him Talos before starting another civil war. 

[Virginiá]

Why are we still using RV's right now?

Isn't that how it always goes? LV screens need to be used before an election, which isn't for a long time, so the best way to go right now is registered voters. Or, I'd think anyway.