The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Gass3268]

Gallup same as yesterday 43/50

Disapproval went up point to 51%

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup same as yesterday 43/50

Disapproval went up point to 51%

Ouch

[Tender Branson]

The NJ poll seems to be the first state poll showing a Trump approval rating.

[pbrower2a]

(moved to accommodate new data)

[Tender Branson]

pbrower, Trump also has negative favorables in AZ.

There was just a new poll yesterday.

39-49

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/8fe0874f-3ee1-4423-9f10-fe49d8a11495/AZ_Statewide_BorderWall_Toplines_1_29_17.pdf

[henster]

What does RAS consider likely voters and why are they polling them in January?

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, Trump also has negative favorables in AZ.

There was just a new poll yesterday.

39-49

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/8fe0874f-3ee1-4423-9f10-fe49d8a11495/AZ_Statewide_BorderWall_Toplines_1_29_17.pdf

It's easy to see why the border wall and a high tariff against Mexico would be unpopular in Arizona. It would be a disaster from an ecological and economic standpoint... and it would even be costly in human life just to build. It makes far more sense to rush the Arizona 85 link between I-8 and I-10 and  complete the Phoenix-Las Vegas expressway (which are in progress)  -- and maybe create a freeway link to "Arizona's beach" at Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Tougher enforcement of the border crossings against illegal immigration and drug trafficking? Sure. Obama already did that.  

I did not see the overall topline for issues other than the tariff and the border wall, so I can't modify my map yet.  

[pbrower2a]

What does RAS consider likely voters and why are they polling them in January?

Likely voters are the people statistically least likely to miss a vote.  Those are older, more conservative voters with higher levels of income and education.

[The_Doctor]

pbrower2a, a programming question. At some point, why don't you make a Trump Approval Rating 2.0 Approval rating and just edit your map whenever a new state poll comes out?

[pbrower2a]

pbrower2a, a programming question. At some point, why don't you make a Trump Approval Rating 2.0 Approval rating and just edit your map whenever a new state poll comes out?

For now the statewide polls have been coming out slowly enough (less than one per week) for either favorability or approval. I had to go back three pages to have the map that I copy, one that has both favorability and approval. I expect approval to become more relevant in about a moth (which is March).

Once a week? At this point I might be lucky to find one poll.

I often make comments when I enter a poll, and I expect to see comments about my comments especially if they are off-color or macabre.  

Addendum: I have moved a polling map to accommodate a poll that I did not expect to see.

[Mr. Morden]

Reuters/Ipsos also has a tracking poll on Trump's job approval:

https://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170101-20170131/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, New Jersey. The first APPROVAL poll of any state that does not mention 'the transition'.

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve               36%    87%     7%    36%    44%    29%    38%    49%
Disapprove           55      7     88     54     47     63     55     42
DK/NA                    9      6      5     11      9      8      6      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              34%    29%    38%    42%    48%    39%    43%    20%
Disapprove           61     61        54       48        45       52       49       70
DK/NA                 4     11      8      9      7      8      8     10
 

Sure, it is New Jersey, which is a very sure D state in Presidential races.  Donald Trump got 41% of the vote in New Jersey in 2016. The younger the voter, the less likely one is to support President Trump... the only demographic groups for which President Trump isn't under water is white men and whites without college degrees.

New Jersey of course is NOT a microcosm of America, but if the pattern of many people who voted for him in 2016 disapproving of the President that they voted for, then Election Night 2020 could be a rude awakening for the GOP -- perhaps as rude as Election Night 2008. Four percent of the electorate peeling away from the GOP by 2020 means that the Republican nominee (almost certainly an incumbent) gets 42% of the vote.

pbrower, Trump also has negative favorables in AZ.

There was just a new poll yesterday.

39-49

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/8fe0874f-3ee1-4423-9f10-fe49d8a11495/AZ_Statewide_BorderWall_Toplines_1_29_17.pdf

This is more or less job approval. His EO's or tariff proposal are both heavily underwater, and there's more Republicans than Dems polled. That should scare Flake.

I found the poll at KPNX-TV (NBC-12, Phoenix) :

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.12news.com/news/politics/arizona-voters-disapprove-of-trump-performance-new-poll-shows/394516763

Context  on specific policies suggests approval, and media may not use the words "favorability" and "approval" as we do. "Favorabilty" is expectation; "approval" is about results.  

In any event, this surely suggests that President Trump is having a very bad time in a state that he really must win in 2020 if he is to be re-elected.



Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[Tender Branson]

pbrower, the AZ poll is clearly about favorable ratings only.

From the PDF:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

SurveyMonkey
Jan 26 – Jan 30
4,444 Adults

48% Approve   50% Disapprove

Among RV only, it's 49-50 disapprove.

[Sir Mohamed]

Rasmussen
Jan 29 – Jan 31
1,500 Likely Voters

53% Approve   47%   Disapprove

SurveyMonkey
Jan 26 – Jan 30
4,444 Adults

48% Approve   50% Disapprove

Politico/Morning Consult
Jan 26 – Jan 28
1,991 Registered Voters

49% Approve   41%   Disapprove

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval

LOL, Rassy is trolling again.

[Tender Branson]

CA (SurveyUSA, 800 adults polled yesterday):

34% approve
52% disapprove

Do you support? Or do you oppose? ... a new policy that prevents persons from 7 nations from entering the United States? Or, do you not know enough to say?

36-46 oppose

Should California withdraw from the United States and become an entirely new nation? Or should California remain part of the United States?

18-68 oppose

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bd38a6c0-bce1-4e2e-b7e7-9f6626d8bc6a

[Tender Branson]

The CA and NJ polls suggest Trump's approval ratings nationally are about split or slightly positive.

[Gass3268]

Gallup at 43-52 with Strong Disapproval > Strong Approve by a quite a bit. I think it'd be best to wait until mid-March for approval to be actually meaningful, though

Dayum

[Wiz in Wis]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

[Crumpets]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Why does RCP list this as 47-45 approve? I clicked on their link and it shows a PDF with 44-43 disapproval as well, so it's not a different poll.

[KingSweden]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Why does RCP list this as 47-45 approve? I clicked on their link and it shows a PDF with 44-43 disapproval as well, so it's not a different poll.

Because RCP

[pbrower2a]

SurveyMonkey
Jan 26 – Jan 30
4,444 Adults

48% Approve   50% Disapprove

Among RV only, it's 49-50 disapprove.

Correction made and noted.

CA (SurveyUSA, 800 adults polled yesterday):

34% approve
52% disapprove

Do you support? Or do you oppose? ... a new policy that prevents persons from 7 nations from entering the United States? Or, do you not know enough to say?

36-46 oppose

Should California withdraw from the United States and become an entirely new nation? Or should California remain part of the United States?

18-68 oppose

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bd38a6c0-bce1-4e2e-b7e7-9f6626d8bc6a

Map adjusted above.   

The 18% of Californians who would like to secede from America and go off on their own is alarming. There was little known sentiment for such before Donald Trump was elected President. To be sure, Barack Obama was a great match for California and Donald Trump is a horrible match.

California went (rounding up) 62-32 for Hillary Clinton. I see no significant difference between the positive vote for Trump and his approval rating. The "Muslim ban" does not yet hurt Donald Trump.  I'm not saying that it won't.    

[Mr. Morden]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Trump continues to do poorly among the rich by the standards of what we’re used to from Republicans:

income under $50k: +/-0
income $50-100k: +7
income over $100k: -25

Now, the over $100k group is the smallest sample, so MoE is big, and I don’t believe the gap is that huge, but most other polls also have $50-100k as Trump’s strongest group, with him doing comparatively poorly among those over $100k.

[Tender Branson]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Why does RCP list this as 47-45 approve? I clicked on their link and it shows a PDF with 44-43 disapproval as well, so it's not a different poll.

Because there's a RV breakdown in YouGov's PDF release.

And RCP always uses RV over adults.

[Mr. Morden]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Trump continues to do poorly among the rich by the standards of what we’re used to from Republicans:

income under $50k: +/-0
income $50-100k: +7
income over $100k: -25

Now, the over $100k group is the smallest sample, so MoE is big, and I don’t believe the gap is that huge, but most other polls also have $50-100k as Trump’s strongest group, with him doing comparatively poorly among those over $100k.

Btw, here's the full poll:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qg8b1mgh4b/econToplines.pdf

bring back waterboarding:
favor 32%
oppose 40%

build a wall on the Mexico border
favor 40%
oppose 44%

stop government grants to cities that provide services to illegal immigrants
favor 48%
oppose 34%

build the Dakota Access pipeline
favor 36%
oppose 37%

move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem
favor 25%
oppose 26%

reduce the number of refugees the US accepts to 50,000
favor 47%
oppose 29%

stop admitting Syrian refugees entirely
favor 38%
oppose 36%

stop admitting all refugees to the US for four months
favor 40%
oppose 37%

90 day ban on people entering the US from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen
favor 48%
oppose 31%