Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

My bad sir.  I guess I misunderstood, I thought you meant by "not celebrating" that you meant about your own prediction!

Right now, the gap is 9 points.  I'll be very much surprised if the gap between the two candidates decreases.

[MR maverick]

My bad sir.  I guess I misunderstood, I thought you meant by "not celebrating" that you meant about your own prediction!

Right now, the gap is 9 points.  I'll be very much surprised if the gap between the two candidates decreases.

4 - 5% the day before election?

[BlueSwan]

My bad sir.  I guess I misunderstood, I thought you meant by "not celebrating" that you meant about your own prediction!

Right now, the gap is 9 points.  I'll be very much surprised if the gap between the two candidates decreases.

As long as the gap is at least 5 points the day before the election, I'll feel confident.

[J. J.]

My bad sir.  I guess I misunderstood, I thought you meant by "not celebrating" that you meant about your own prediction!

Right now, the gap is 9 points.  I'll be very much surprised if the gap between the two candidates decreases.

4 - 5% the day before election?

I was referring today's Gallup, which will get at 1:00 PM; that would be four days of decreasing and any single bad sample would be out.

I would be surprised if the gap narrows today.

[Ty440]

Sunday Oct 12 2008


Obama  50% -1
Mccain   43% +1

[J. J.]

I am surprised. 

[BlueSwan]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

[Ronnie]

Obama has reached a peak.  I wouldn't be surprised if the race was Obama+4 at the end of this week.

[Ty440]

I am surprised. 

I'm not, the reality of the stock market crash has already taken it's full effect. Mccain can only slowly creep up for now. He has reached his valley.

What solutions has Obama offered ? These bad polls are the result of people pissed off at the Republicans and not some great support for Obama.

Obama's support right now is a mile wide and an inch deep. If he begins to fall in the polls I think he can fall fast.

[J. J.]

Four point drop for Obama since Thursday.  The almost has to have been a bad sample in that.

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

Forget Zogby (PLEASE!).  Hotline was all over the place.  6-7 Obama?

[Eraserhead]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

That's "remarkably close"?

[Sam Spade]

Important note in today's update:

Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents' current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain. -- Jeff Jones
As Vorlon has pointed out, it is now at this point in the race (second week of October or so) when Gallup's LV model starts becoming useful to us. 

Hopefully, they will post this every day...

[Ty440]

Important note in today's update:

Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents' current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain. -- Jeff Jones
As Vorlon has pointed out, it is now at this point in the race (second week of October or so) when Gallup's LV model starts becoming useful to us. 

Hopefully, they will post this every day...

HA! Just as I believed. That big 12 point lead was artificial.

Yes Obama will get more African-Americans to show up especially like in places like Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina where he had no shot of winning anyway.

[BlueSwan]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

That's "remarkably close"?

Compared to the results of 3 or 4 days ago when some polls had Obama up a single point and others at +12 - absolutely!

[J. J.]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

That's "remarkably close"?

Compared to the results of 3 or 4 days ago when some polls had Obama up a single point and others at +12 - absolutely!

And a three point range over three polls is fairly close.

[MR maverick]

Its not like obama was going to actaully win by 10pts.

50-48% is about what it could be on election night.

[Ronnie]

C'mon Obama, FALL UNDER 50%!

[BlueSwan]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

That's "remarkably close"?

Compared to the results of 3 or 4 days ago when some polls had Obama up a single point and others at +12 - absolutely!

And a three point range over three polls is fairly close.

Four polls. And yes indeed.

[J. J.]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

That's "remarkably close"?

Compared to the results of 3 or 4 days ago when some polls had Obama up a single point and others at +12 - absolutely!

And a three point range over three polls is fairly close.

Four polls. And yes indeed.

I refuse to count Zogby. 

[Iosif]

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 41 (-2)

[Aizen]

I thought McCain was supposed to be boosting because of Ayers. What happened?

[BlueSwan]

All tracking polls for today:

Gallup: Obama +10 (+3)
Rasmussen: Obama +5 (-1)
R2000: Obama +12 (-1)
Battleground: Obama +8 (-2)
Hotline: Obama +6 (-2)
Zogby: Obama +4 (-2)

So Obama loses ground everywhere, except in Gallups poll where he gains 3 points and yet again the polls are all over the place. The only constant is that Obama leads by at least 4 points.

If Gallup only looks at likely voters Obamas lead is cut to 7 points.

[Zarn]

Gallup sometimes has little spasms, before it starts to settle down or goes in a completely different direction.

In other words, they go up and down faster than the stock market.

[J. J.]

We now have Rasmussen and Gallup moving in opposite directions.  Wait until Wednesday or Thursday.

[Sam Spade]

All tracking polls for today:

Gallup: Obama +10 (+3)
Rasmussen: Obama +5 (-1)
R2000: Obama +12 (-1)
Battleground: Obama +8 (-2)
Hotline: Obama +6 (-2)
Zogby: Obama +4 (-2)

So Obama loses ground everywhere, except in Gallups poll where he gains 3 points and yet again the polls are all over the place. The only constant is that Obama leads by at least 4 points.

If Gallup only looks at likely voters Obamas lead is cut to 7 points.

Battleground was unchanged.