Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

The numbers, at this point, are crisis driven; the crisis ends, the Obama lead ends.

[ucscgaldamez]

So, before the RNC, when Obama was leading, it was based on a crisis? (summer)  ridiculous.

[Eraserhead]

The numbers, at this point, are crisis driven; the crisis ends, the Obama lead ends.

Talk about wishful thinking...

[ucscgaldamez]

I didn't know we had a summer crisis.

[Keystone Phil]

I didn't know we had a summer crisis.

Was Obama up eight points throughout the summer?

[Sensei]

The numbers, at this point, are crisis driven; the crisis ends, the Obama lead ends.

SAY SOMETHING NON-HACKISH FOR ONCE

[Smash255]

I didn't know we had a summer crisis.

Was Obama up eight points throughout the summer?

No, however that doesn't mean that Obama's lead now is because of the Wall Street Crisis and will go away once its solved

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The numbers, at this point, are crisis driven; the crisis ends, the Obama lead ends.

SAY SOMETHING NON-HACKISH FOR ONCE

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The numbers, at this point, are crisis driven; the crisis ends, the Obama lead ends.

SAY SOMETHING NON-HACKISH FOR ONCE

For some reason I was thinking of the same.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I didn't know we had a summer crisis.

Was Obama up eight points throughout the summer?

No, however that doesn't mean that Obama's lead now is because of the Wall Street Crisis and will go away once its solved

What suggests it won't? You may be right, but every time someone has gotten out to a large lead, it's usually evaporated in a week. Obama took off once this Wall St. crisis became really big in the news with this bailout being touted as the only way our economy doesn't collapse. Once the bailout passes, things should settle down. We should stop seeing 300-400 point swings daily in the markets, and Obama's lead will subside. I'm not saying he'll lose the lead, but it won't remain at 8 points.

[Keystone Phil]

I didn't know we had a summer crisis.

Was Obama up eight points throughout the summer?

No, however that doesn't mean that Obama's lead now is because of the Wall Street Crisis and will go away once its solved

This big lead isn't because of what's happening on Wall Street?

I need to visit your little world someday.

[ucscgaldamez]

I do agree with Phil that the large lead has to do with the crisis. However, the point was not the large lead, but about Obama leading during the summer. The point was not about how much he was leading, at least not my point.

[Nym90]

Bad news for Obama. Given his weekend bounce and the crisis, he should be ahead by more.

In all seriousness, I would think McCain should benefit from any crisis due to his greater experience thus allowing him to be better able to handle and respond to such situations. It would seem that's what people are primarily referring to when they favor McCain on the basis of experience.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I do agree with Phil that the large lead has to do with the crisis. However, the point was not the large lead, but about Obama leading during the summer. The point was not about how much he was leading, at least not my point.

Well, he lead through summer really doesn't mean anything. Dukakis led through the summer of 1988 as well, and I believe Bush/Perot and Carter did too. He was behind after the conventions and then regains the lead because the bottom was about to fall out on Wall Street and people blamed the Administration for it.

If things were fine, then McCain would be in much better shape. The public feels like Obama will better handle the economy, so it's no surprise he's leading by a large margin.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I agree this lead won't last; by Thursday I expect it to be around Obama +3, but not more than that.

[big bad fab]

Bad news for Obama. Given his weekend bounce and the crisis, he should be ahead by more.

In all seriousness, I would think McCain should benefit from any crisis due to his greater experience thus allowing him to be better able to handle and respond to such situations. It would seem that's what people are primarily referring to when they favor McCain on the basis of experience.

I agree.

"My friends", I'm very sad to say that it's now too late: Palin will lose her debate; Obama will just need to have 2 so-called tied debates (he doesn't need to attack); McCain is no longer campaigning enough (do you see him in VA, FL, NV, OH these days ? and I don't even mention CO.... and what about having a field team in IN ?).

As I have said in another thread, Bill Clinton (yes, this one from the Clintons' Millenial Saga) is out campaigning for McCain (no answer to an "experienced" Obama; Todd Palin "what a guy"; Sarah "hmmmm"; good friend McCain; etc....), but even that (a complete betrayal, I would say) is no longer put on front page by the MSM: a sign that whatever McCain tries to do ou whatever happens, the MSM won't let him come back.

[ucscgaldamez]

I agree. The media helps Obama, and I don't think that will change. The McCain campaign needs a game changer, however, they need to be careful about what kind of narrative they will be creating given the fact that the media will not go along.

[Gustaf]

As a general comment I would appreciate if all the "hurrah" and "nooo" stuff would be somewhere else...it's annoying to have to go back two pages every time in order to get to the polls.

But as I'm writing this already I guess I can add to the mess.

It looks bad for McCain though. Still, this is obviously a "crisis effect." Unless things continue to look bad I expect the current lead to diminish. Bottom line though: McCain probably needs a "move" to shake things up and move it in his direction. The question is whether there is any such feasible move left for him?

[Rowan]

As a general comment I would appreciate if all the "hurrah" and "nooo" stuff would be somewhere else...it's annoying to have to go back two pages every time in order to get to the polls.

But as I'm writing this already I guess I can add to the mess.

It looks bad for McCain though. Still, this is obviously a "crisis effect." Unless things continue to look bad I expect the current lead to diminish. Bottom line though: McCain probably needs a "move" to shake things up and move it in his direction. The question is whether there is any such feasible move left for him?

Or you could just go to Gallup.com

[Gustaf]

As a general comment I would appreciate if all the "hurrah" and "nooo" stuff would be somewhere else...it's annoying to have to go back two pages every time in order to get to the polls.

But as I'm writing this already I guess I can add to the mess.

It looks bad for McCain though. Still, this is obviously a "crisis effect." Unless things continue to look bad I expect the current lead to diminish. Bottom line though: McCain probably needs a "move" to shake things up and move it in his direction. The question is whether there is any such feasible move left for him?

Or you could just go to Gallup.com

Sure, but I like to be able to check all the latest trackers on here. It's an eternal problem...it's just that it's worse lately. I don't mind the analysis, of course.

[Lunar]

Economic fears are interesting.  Americans lose faith in the economy EXTREMELY quickly, but they don't gain faith back in the economy anywhere near as fast.  It's pretty well documented that consumer confidence ticks upward a small amount every month.

JJ predicting that "As soon as the crisis fades, so does Obama's lead" is a false prognostication, because I doubt most of the electorate can just flip a switch in 40 days and start thinking about  Iraq and whatnot again.  If the economy recovers fully in the next couple weeks, it's good for McCain, but there will still be a lingering strong dissatisfaction of, and focus on, the economy for many months ahead among a sizable (dare I say, majority?) amount of voters.

That said, 8%= rad.

[??????????]

Well, it wasn't to hard to predict the media would give the "win" to Obama. I knew that no matter how well McCain did they were going to say Obama won.  The media is completely carrying all the water for Obama. They are doing everything they can to get him in office it's quite obvious. Obama and the Democrats are NOT being attacked for their policies which created this housing crisis. The Politically Correct loans are not being pointed out by either McCain or his camp. Need I really go on? Lets just get ready for a president Obama. And I'll get ready to give Mr Neophyte one big number one finger when he takes the oath.

[Eraserhead]

I'm amazed by the amount of Republicans on here who seem to have completely given up. It's a little early for that, i'd say. It's not even October yet.

[??????????]

I'm amazed by the amount of Republicans on here who seem to have completely given up. It's a little early for that, i'd say. It's not even October yet.

Yes, but overall, outside of this forum, most Americans are simply just to ignorant to do any research themselves.

[Lunar]

Well, it wasn't to hard to predict the media would give the "win" to Obama. I knew that no matter how well McCain did they were going to say Obama won.  The media is completely carrying all the water for Obama. They are doing everything they can to get him in office it's quite obvious. Obama and the Democrats are NOT being attacked for their policies which created this housing crisis. The Politically Correct loans are not being pointed out by either McCain or his camp. Need I really go on? Lets just get ready for a president Obama. And I'll get ready to give Mr Neophyte one big number one finger when he takes the oath.

Actually, the slight majority of media pundits, including left-leaning ones, like Greg Sargent on the incredibly left-leaning site, TalkingPointsMemo, gave the win to McCain.  I don't know what the heck you are talking about.

It was the flashpolls that gave the win to Obama, and the media relied on these multiple polls of undecided viewers to analyze the debate in the days after.