Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Brittain33]

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

It's 49-45. 

[pepper11]

Obama's 'best individual night in weeks' drops off tomorrow.  What's up momentum change. 

[Brittain33]

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

It's 49-45. 

Thanks. I can't help it, I have the audacity of hope. Revised the original.

[Sam Spade]

Obama's 'best individual night in weeks' drops off tomorrow.  What's up momentum change. 

It's not momentum change - it's erosion of the bump.  Big difference.

Hopefully by Monday, I'll have an idea where the race truly stands, but I might have to wait until Thursday.

[Torie]

I wonder if the recovery of the stock market on Friday will have an impact. It was massive world wide.

[Umengus]

I wonder if the recovery of the stock market on Friday will have an impact. It was massive world wide.

impact yes but smaller than the fall.

[Rococo4]

I wonder if the recovery of the stock market on Friday will have an impact. It was massive world wide.

impact yes but smaller than the fall.

id say that is correct

[Wiz in Wis]

Obama's 'best individual night in weeks' drops off tomorrow.  What's up momentum change. 

Actually, according to the data, the best night in weeks actually dropped off today, given the largest shift (3 points) was September 15

[Sam Spade]

Obama's 'best individual night in weeks' drops off tomorrow.  What's up momentum change. 

Actually, according to the data, the best night in weeks actually dropped off today, given the largest shift (3 points) was September 15

Uh, that sample dropped off yesterday, not today.  And once again, as I did to RowanBrandon with his analysis, I point to this language:

Obama enjoyed one of his widest advantages over McCain of recent weeks in Thursday night's interviewing. It will be important to see whether the stock market's reaction today to aggressive government intervention in the crisis has an impact of the direction of the presidential race over the next few days.

Although I don't know what the last two days' samples have been, it seems clear that Thursday's sample (Friday) was more pro-Obama than Wednesday's sample (Thursday).

How much?  Who knows...

[Rowan]

Friday nights sample was at least a high single digit win for Obama, while Saturday was a small McCain win.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I expect the race to be at around Obama +2 by Thursday.

[Sam Spade]

Friday nights sample was at least a high single digit win for Obama, while Saturday was a small McCain win.

So, what do you think it was?

[Rowan]

Friday nights sample was at least a high single digit win for Obama, while Saturday was a small McCain win.

So, what do you think it was?

I have Friday as Obama +11, and Saturday as McCain +2.

Rough estimates as always though.

[Torie]

A 13% swing in one day is absurd, even with the financial market recovery on Friday. I guess Alcon would remind us that this is the flaw of small sample sizes or something. To me, it means that maybe pollsters are having some trouble in figuring out who will vote.

[TomC]

The financial markets have not truly recovered. We may be able to see how they are going to recover, erasing some of the fears of early in the week.

But the markets weren't just stock prices going up and down, that's just the visible reaction to the credit crisis and failure of some financial companies. The markets are reacting to news that not only impacts the prices of those stocks but they looked ahead to the macroeconomic impact over the next six or so months. The pain is far from over. Big layoffs begin next week.

If indeed last week held a long or intermediate bottom, it's likely we'll retest that bottom. Bottoms are often a "W" not just a "V." There's still tons of uncertainty out there to cause uncertainty in the market, including, even moreso now, the Nov 4 electon itself.

There's also the decent possibility we haven't even seen the bottom. After 9/11, stocks mostly dropped for the year following, the bottom being in Oct 2002.

I'm sure many are aware of all this; I've just seen repeated comments about the "recovery" in the stock markets on Thurs and Fri, and it seemed people felt it would only get better from here. I'm not your typical "gloom and doom" on the economy Democrat.  But recent events are a once-in-a generation economic crisis. This could seriously get worse before it gets better.

[ChrisFromNJ]

The financial markets have not truly recovered. We may be able to see how they are going to recover, erasing some of the fears of early in the week.

But the markets weren't just stock prices going up and down, that's just the visible reaction to the credit crisis and failure of some financial companies. The markets are reacting to news that not only impacts the prices of those stocks but they looked ahead to the macroeconomic impact over the next six or so months. The pain is far from over. Big layoffs begin next week.

If indeed last week held a long or intermediate bottom, it's likely we'll retest that bottom. Bottoms are often a "W" not just a "V." There's still tons of uncertainty out there to cause uncertainty in the market, including, even moreso now, the Nov 4 electon itself.

There's also the decent possibility we haven't even seen the bottom. After 9/11, stocks mostly dropped for the year following, the bottom being in

I'm sure many are aware of all this; I've just seen repeated comments about the "recovery" in the stock markets on Thurs and Fri, and it seemed people felt it would only get better from here. I'm not your typical "gloom and doom" on the economy Democrat.  But recent events are a once-in-a generation economic crisis. This could seriously get worse before it gets better.

Not to mention the fact that both political parties in Congress are beginning to spar over the terms of this bailout and it is possible that we may see gridlock here. We may not see such a bill passed until the end of this week, and while that happens, the markets will suffer.

[Reds4]

I have to agree with TCash on this one. The market is unlikely to just bounce back and head higher from here on out. There is still a pretty good chance we haven't seen the bottom yet. The market hates uncertainty and there is plenty of uncertainty to go around right now. There will be plenty more news coming from the stock market in the coming weeks that will impact the election in a major way, that much you can count on.

The financial markets have not truly recovered. We may be able to see how they are going to recover, erasing some of the fears of early in the week.

But the markets weren't just stock prices going up and down, that's just the visible reaction to the credit crisis and failure of some financial companies. The markets are reacting to news that not only impacts the prices of those stocks but they looked ahead to the macroeconomic impact over the next six or so months. The pain is far from over. Big layoffs begin next week.

If indeed last week held a long or intermediate bottom, it's likely we'll retest that bottom. Bottoms are often a "W" not just a "V." There's still tons of uncertainty out there to cause uncertainty in the market, including, even moreso now, the Nov 4 electon itself.

There's also the decent possibility we haven't even seen the bottom. After 9/11, stocks mostly dropped for the year following, the bottom being in

I'm sure many are aware of all this; I've just seen repeated comments about the "recovery" in the stock markets on Thurs and Fri, and it seemed people felt it would only get better from here. I'm not your typical "gloom and doom" on the economy Democrat.  But recent events are a once-in-a generation economic crisis. This could seriously get worse before it gets better.

[Brittain33]

Monday, September 22, 2008
Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

[Eraserhead]

Monday, September 22, 2008
Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

I can live with that.

[Lunar]

Nooooo...stop siiiiinking.

[Keystone Phil]

Things should be tied by Friday.

[Wiz in Wis]

Things should be tied by Friday.

Is this from the bureau of statistics fomented in your butt?

[Eraserhead]

Things should be tied by Friday.

This is based on....

[Keystone Phil]

Things should be tied by Friday.

Is this from the bureau of statistics fomented in your butt?

Yes

Things should be tied by Friday.

This is based on....

...Obama's inability to keep a lead for more than a week or so.