Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

Hardly "Out in front."  He's ahead by 2, and that lead has been going down steadily.  We'll be tied by Wednesday, I'd say.

RAS has him up by 3.

Then RAS will have them tied on Tursday or Friday.

I love wishful thinking.

They're getting scared. Wishful thinking is all they have left.

[KeyKeeper]

Guys don't get cocky, there is still a long ways to go anything came happen.

[Tender Branson]

RCP average has McCain up 2.3.

Today's 4 tracking polls have it 47.0-45.5 for McCain.

[J. J.]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

Hardly "Out in front."  He's ahead by 2, and that lead has been going down steadily.  We'll be tied by Wednesday, I'd say.

RAS has him up by 3.

Then RAS will have them tied on Tursday or Friday.

I love wishful thinking.

Very wishful think.  We have to make two assumption:

1.  The isn't an Obama weekend bounce.

2.  There is a bad sample in the Rasmussen number.

At least one of those assumptions is probably wrong.

[Sam Spade]

Be patient, folks...

[Sbane]

Well looks like America wants 4 more years of Bush policies. Wonderful.

[Ronnie]

Well looks like America wants 4 more years of Bush policies. Wonderful.

Well...if you want to call it that, sure.  I disagree; but then again, a good sized chunk of the American public disagrees as well.

[Sbane]

Well looks like America wants 4 more years of Bush policies. Wonderful.

Well...if you want to call it that, sure.  I disagree; but then again, a good sized chunk of the American public disagrees as well.

But there is only one truth Ronnie. See the thing is that in some ways Mccain might be different. He will get rid of gitmo and he may veto a spending bill or two but where else is there a difference? He promises more tax cuts for the rich while he promises more war. How does that work out? Are we really going to become a debtor nation? Are we going to be begging for debt reductions in 50 years? Is that the path we want to go down? A lot of people think that we are in this mess because Bush is stupid/incompetent. That is not the case though. It is the policies he has pursued that has led to this mess. Low regulation led to Enron ,Worldcom and all those corporate shakeups in his first term. Low regulation led to a lowering of lending standards which led to the subprime crisis now. Is Mccain going to regulate industries more heavily? I don't know the answer to that but if he surrounds himself with the same people bush did, the answer would be no.

[Eraserhead]

Why are McCain people excited about a poll that shows his lead getting smaller everyday? Very strange.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

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He's been a deficit hawk his entire career and has never requested any type of wasteful spending. Yet, you believe that he will be the same big spender like Bush. Why? Do you just watch the Democrat talking points and believe them?

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Yes, he proposes more tax cuts for all Americans. The rich pay the most taxes, so yes, they'll get the most back. I guess if you believe in redistributing the wealth, you'd disagree with this policy. Besides, with Democrat majorities, he won't be able to get this done. Obama has said he won't be rolling back the tax cuts either until the economy turns around, so it's moot.

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LOL. You think Obama will reduce the debt when he proposes billions in new spending? The truth is neither side will reduce the deficit.

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It was Bush's fault that Enron and Worldcom went bankrupt? Those things were going on during Clinton's final years and broke a year after Bush took office. High regulation on industries will just hinder growth. There's a reason why other nations are outpacing us in economic growth.

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Stupidity lead to the current crisis. People making $50,000 a year shouldn't be buying $800,000 homes. Maybe put some warning in there, but it isn't Bush's fault that this stuff happened. Ban ARM's if we need to.

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I hope not.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

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He's been a deficit hawk his entire career and has never requested any type of wasteful spending. Yet, you believe that he will be the same big spender like Bush. Why? Do you just watch the Democrat talking points and believe them?

The war in Iraq is costing $10 billion a month.

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Yes, he proposes more tax cuts for all Americans. The rich pay the most taxes, so yes, they'll get the most back. I guess if you believe in redistributing the wealth, you'd disagree with this policy. Besides, with Democrat majorities, he won't be able to get this done. Obama has said he won't be rolling back the tax cuts either until the economy turns around, so it's moot.
[/quote]
Obama has more tax cuts for most Americans, and yet, unlike McCain's tax cut, it will have little impact on the national debt.

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LOL. You think Obama will reduce the debt when he proposes billions in new spending? The truth is neither side will reduce the deficit.
[/quote]
You just called McCain a deficit hawk.

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It was Bush's fault that Enron and Worldcom went bankrupt? Those things were going on during Clinton's final years and broke a year after Bush took office. High regulation on industries will just hinder growth. There's a reason why other nations are outpacing us in economic growth.

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Stupidity lead to the current crisis. People making $50,000 a year shouldn't be buying $800,000 homes. Maybe put some warning in there, but it isn't Bush's fault that this stuff happened. Ban ARM's if we need to.

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I hope not.
[/quote]

Reagan is to blame for deregulating these things. We had the same sort of problems back when McCain was having his Keating Five scandal. Hmm, who is going to do more to fix the problem, Obama or Mr. Keating Five?

[Sbane]

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He's been a deficit hawk his entire career and has never requested any type of wasteful spending. Yet, you believe that he will be the same big spender like Bush. Why? Do you just watch the Democrat talking points and believe them? 

This is an area where I am hopeful Mccain will be able to do something. I know of his distaste of pork barrel spending but I doubt he will be able to much about it. We need that line item veto.

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Yes, he proposes more tax cuts for all Americans. The rich pay the most taxes, so yes, they'll get the most back. I guess if you believe in redistributing the wealth, you'd disagree with this policy. Besides, with Democrat majorities, he won't be able to get this done. Obama has said he won't be rolling back the tax cuts either until the economy turns around, so it's moot.

My main problem here is giving away tax cuts in the middle of a war. I also think the chance of a war with Iran goes way up under a Mccain administration. Many who have conversed with him say he believes war is a way of solving things and he just may choose that route in Iran. Although he may do it more competently than Bush, how is he going to pay for it? How long is he planning on keeping troops in Iraq? How will we pay for that? At least Obama's tax cuts and tax increases add a little into the coffers while Mccain's tax cuts just increase the debt even more.

[Dan the Roman]

Pork is meaningless and all this talk about wasteful spending is equally dishonest. There is no wasteful spending in the budget because everything there makes sense for someone. The actual amount of Pork is less than 1% of the federal deficit. All this talk about earmarks is lies so that McCain can fool people into thinking we can afford his tax cut.

And issue is not redistribution v. non-redistribution. Someone will pay for these things. You either have the rich pay through taxes, or the middle class and poor will pay through inflation and higher gas prices. There is a reason we had guess prices high this year and it wasn't supply and demand. It was that the dollar was worth 25% less than in 2003 so instead of 3$ a gallon it was 4$. As the dollar went up prices dropped.

The best way to keep oil prices low is to raise taxes and lower the deficit. That will have a million times more effect than drilling or any other nonsense. But Republicans pretend these days that they can have taxes and spending and not pay for it.

This nonsense about taxes slowing growth is bs too. Wall St. would vastly prefer a higher dollar, and lower commodity prices to a 1% tax cut. The only people who are think they help the economy are paid lobbyist like Norquist. Wall St. has been very clear they want Obama or more accurately they want anyone but McCain since he will be an economic disaster story.

[Sbane]

What the country really needs is some middle class tax cuts to get this economy going again. I have nothing against tax cuts for the rich but the country just cannot afford it right now. Not when we love to go to war against people who didn't even attack us. If Mccain really invades Iran and lowers taxes on the rich, god help us all. Actually god help the poor because they are the ones who are going to get crushed by inflation. The rich will just put their money in gold and enjoy the good life. And the circle of life continues.

[Sbane]

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It was Bush's fault that Enron and Worldcom went bankrupt? Those things were going on during Clinton's final years and broke a year after Bush took office. High regulation on industries will just hinder growth. There's a reason why other nations are outpacing us in economic growth.

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Stupidity lead to the current crisis. People making $50,000 a year shouldn't be buying $800,000 homes. Maybe put some warning in there, but it isn't Bush's fault that this stuff happened. Ban ARM's if we need to.
 

It wasn't specifically Bush's fault that Enron went bankrupt or the subprime crisis happened. I just feel that government needs to regulate industry in the sense that they need to make sure nothing untoward is occurring. We need more government oversight, not meddling with their actual operations. Oversight costs money on the part of the government but it does not hinder businesses unless they are doing something which is unethical. In the examples I provided something unethical/stunningly stupid was occurring. By your logic we should let these things occur and let the chips fall where they may. You are right in that sense because Enron did go bankrupt and all these banks that got involved in these retarded loans did get f'ed. But the question is wouldn't it be better if we had stopped these guys earlier? Deregulation is good to an extent but you need oversight or evil people will game the system which ultimately leads to everyone losing. I was just reading up about the energy crisis of 2001 in California and I was just thinking the whole time how a little oversight would have avoided that whole situation.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday -  September 14, 2008:

McCain  - 47% (nc)
Obama  - 45% (nc)

[Ronnie]

As I said, these numbers are rock solid.  McCain should be leading 2-3 points nationally now; no more, no less.

[Tender Branson]

As I said, these numbers are rock solid.  McCain should be leading 2-3 points nationally now; no more, no less.

The Rasmussen update tomorrow on CO, VA, PA, FL and OH should be interesting, considering McCain gained 2-3% over the week nationally.

[Ronnie]

As I said, these numbers are rock solid.  McCain should be leading 2-3 points nationally now; no more, no less.

The Rasmussen update tomorrow on CO, VA, PA, FL and OH should be interesting, considering McCain gained 2-3% over the week nationally.

Definitely, the one I'm most looking forward to is the CO poll.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

And note when that was written.

[Person Man]

As I said, these numbers are rock solid.  McCain should be leading 2-3 points nationally now; no more, no less.

The Rasmussen update tomorrow on CO, VA, PA, FL and OH should be interesting, considering McCain gained 2-3% over the week nationally.

My predictions-

CO - Tie
VA- R +4
PA- D+1
FL- R+3
OH - R+5

[J. J.]

As I said, these numbers are rock solid.  McCain should be leading 2-3 points nationally now; no more, no less.

The Rasmussen update tomorrow on CO, VA, PA, FL and OH should be interesting, considering McCain gained 2-3% over the week nationally.

Definitely, the one I'm most looking forward to is the CO poll.

I'll look for surprises in FL, VA and OH, but I expect those to be off the table, in as much as I'll be able to predict them.  CO, yes, but PA will be the key for me.

[Lunar]

Gallup's at +2.

Today's sample could have been about Obama -1 to 0 to get this result, right?

[J. J.]

Gallup's at +2.

Today's sample could have been about Obama -1 to 0 to get this result, right?

Obama should be up by one, at least.

[Rowan]

Gallup doesn't release till 1 PM EST. You are looking at yesterday's numbers.