Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Aizen]

MCCain is probably up 3-4 points right now. *Sigh*

[Brittain33]

About what I would expect for today. It will be interesting to see what gallup looks like come Monday or so, Obama does see a weekend bounce in it sometimes.

Tuesday, I think, was a very strong sample for McCain that will roll off for tomorrow's results.

[J. J.]

Both Rasmussen and Gallup agree.  Very interesting.

[Brittain33]

Both Rasmussen and Gallup agree.  Very interesting.

Reassuring to me, too, that the shifts in party ID post-RNC may have been ephemeral.

[J. J.]

Both Rasmussen and Gallup agree.  Very interesting.

Reassuring to me, too, that the shifts in party ID post-RNC may have been ephemeral.

Rasmussen was actually an increase.

[Rowan]

Statistical noise.

[Brittain33]

Both Rasmussen and Gallup agree.  Very interesting.

Reassuring to me, too, that the shifts in party ID post-RNC may have been ephemeral.

Rasmussen was actually an increase.

I know. I didn't believe the tie and was worried that it was low because of outdated party ID weighting.

[Lunar]

MCCain is probably up 3-4 points right now. *Sigh*

Actually, should the poll be 100% accurate, McCain is up less than 3 points since it's a 3 day rolling average.

[J. J.]

Statistical noise.

Potentually a trend.  On Gallup, by Tuesday, Obama should be ahead.

[Person Man]

As much as the RCP folks like to hand with nationalists and plutocrats, I agree that Micky C is up about 2 points now. He still may not actually win, even with a two point lead...unless he siphons New Mexico or Michigan, that look more Republican than Pennsylvania, Iowa or even Colorado.

[Zarn]

If Obama takes CO (9)...

A) Given NV (5)... NH+NM (9) or IA (7)
Longshot... OR (7)

B) Without NV... NM+IA (12), NH+IA (11), PA (21), MI (17), or WI (10)
Longshots... NJ (15), MN (10), NM+OR (12)

I cannot see WA (11) flipping, but if I see a close poll come late this month or October, I'd consider myself corrected.

I probably messed up somewhere, because I was not using a map.

[Kalimantan]

If Obama takes CO (9)...

A) Given NV (5)... NH+NM (9) or IA (7)
Longshot... OR (7)

B) Without NV... NM+IA (12), NH+IA (11), PA (21), MI (17), or WI (10)
Longshots... NJ (15), MN (10), NM+OR (12)

I cannot see WA (11) flipping, but if I see a close poll come late this month or October, I'd consider myself corrected.

I probably messed up somewhere, because I was not using a map.

Don't know what you're on about...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

McCain has obviously been able to knock Obama off his perch - McCain is leading now.

It's certainly not irreversible.

Obama needs to get on message - namely "The Republicans have so little faith in the presidential candidate... they've made their VP the image of their ticket"

"The Republicans are more interested in feigning offence and creating rankor, rather than trying to create solutions to the REAL problems you face"

[Zarn]

If Obama takes CO (9)...

A) Given NV (5)... NH+NM (9) or IA (7)
Longshot... OR (7)

B) Without NV... NM+IA (12), NH+IA (11), PA (21), MI (17), or WI (10)
Longshots... NJ (15), MN (10), NM+OR (12)

I cannot see WA (11) flipping, but if I see a close poll come late this month or October, I'd consider myself corrected.

I probably messed up somewhere, because I was not using a map.

Don't know what you're on about...

I would suggest looking at 538 and then looking back at this.

[J. J.]

Saturday, 9/13/08

McCain 47%, -1

Obama 45%, nc

[Rowan]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

Hardly "Out in front."  He's ahead by 2, and that lead has been going down steadily.  We'll be tied by Wednesday, I'd say.

[KeyKeeper]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

I wouldn't say clearly, but yes he is ahead.

[Rowan]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

Hardly "Out in front."  He's ahead by 2, and that lead has been going down steadily.  We'll be tied by Wednesday, I'd say.

RAS has him up by 3.

[Keystone Phil]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

Hardly "Out in front."  He's ahead by 2, and that lead has been going down steadily.  We'll be tied by Wednesday, I'd say.

Weren't you supposed to be tied this week?

[J. J.]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

It includes one day of the weekend.  I'm waiting for Monday's results.  I would be surprised to see MCain gain or stay the same on Wednesday.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

Hardly "Out in front."  He's ahead by 2, and that lead has been going down steadily.  We'll be tied by Wednesday, I'd say.

RAS has him up by 3.

Then RAS will have them tied on Tursday or Friday.

[pepper11]

This was a pretty good sample for McCain I think. I believe the sample that dropped out was +6 or 7 for McCain. meaning the latest was + 3 or + 4, given the 1 point decline. 

[CPT MikeyMike]

RCP average has McCain up 2.3.

[Ronnie]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

Hardly "Out in front."  He's ahead by 2, and that lead has been going down steadily.  We'll be tied by Wednesday, I'd say.

RAS has him up by 3.

Then RAS will have them tied on Tursday or Friday.

I love wishful thinking.