Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Vsanto5]

Honestly its about time McCain lead in Gallup since May, but I think most people that said I'am voting for this guy is just to pay tribute to his service in Vietnam not to actually vote for him come November.  I think most Americans would say what is on their minds that day. 

I mean if Hillary was against McCain, I still think McCain would see a huge bounce from his convention.

[Ronnie]

Honestly its about time McCain lead in Gallup since May, but I think most people that said I'am voting for this guy is just to pay tribute to his service in Vietnam not to actually vote for him come November.  I think most Americans would say what is on their minds that day. 

I mean if Hillary was against McCain, I still think McCain would see a huge bounce from his convention.

Well, we shall see.  I think that there will be plenty of people that would support Obama until the last minute as well.

[J. J.]

It's the bounce.  It might actually get bigger by a point or two. 

We have to wait until mid to late week.

If McCain is up by three next weekend, I'll be overjoyed.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Its sad to see Gallup is in bed with the right wing media.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I guess people like the economy.

McCain being a third Bush term is simply a false statement.  I mean, even if he tried to be a third Bush term, he couldn't be one, just because of the large majority the Democrats will have in congress.  If he truly was another Bush term, I don't think I would be able to support him.

You mean the ones that have completely failed to stand up to Bush? I'm sure they'll stand up to a more popular McCain when he pushes for the same extreme agenda.

[pragmatic liberal]

McCain will probably lead several polls this week. I think we'll have to wait and see how things look in a week or two before we get a really good idea of where the race stands.

Many Democrats have optimistically looked at this as 1980-redux (only with Dems the beneficiaries) --  I wonder if the best comparison is actually 1960. 1960 was a Democratic year, with most of the fundamentals pointing to a Democratic victory. 1958 had seen huge Democratic gains in Congress. Yet there were concerns about Kennedy's religion and experience and in the end the race was very close.

Of course, one big difference was that Ike was nowhere near as unpopular as Bush is. Nixon benefited from his association with Ike. McCain, by contrast, benefits from NOT being associated with Bush -- despite Democratic attempts to tie him to Bush, McCain's favorables remain stubbornly high. He is one of the most well-known politicians in the country and he has a reputation from Bush's first term for moderation and independence. That's a perception that is difficult to completely dislodge.

My own guess is that given the fundamentals, this is going to be an Obama victory. But it'll probably be a narrow one, with a popular vote margin anywhere between 0.5-4% (probably 1-2%) and an electoral college victory that is also quite narrow. I'm not at all confident about Ohio -- though Obama has led polls there, Ohio (and Michigan and Pennsylvania) are places where I'd expect to see a Bradley effect in the polls, meaning that Michigan and Pennsylvania will probably go to Obama but will be closer than polled and Ohio may well go to McCain. So at this point, if we're looking at a very narrow Obama lead, I'd expect his most likely EV victory route to go through holding the Gore/Kerry states (incl. NH, Iowa, and New Mexico), and winning Colorado, Virginia or both.

[KeyKeeper]

If I am right, McCain right now has a 9-12% bump in the Gallup poll right?

[Sam Spade]

Gallup says:

Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

Using this dynamic - Obama bounce:

Obama 49 (45)
McCain 43 (45)

McCain bounce (if you want to begin last Monday, instead of Tuesday (when Gustav hit), then 49-43 is the start point)

Obama 50 (?)
McCain 42 (?)

The VP picks affected all of this, so keep that in mind.

[Torie]

I don't know what fancy stuff Silver does (other than find a starting point, where you know the three day numbers because they are so stable and work forward), but here is the unfancy stuff using Silver's prior two day numbers, with X the solution for the one day Saturday number:

(-2.4+4.2+X)/3=3
x=7.2

[Torie]

If I am right, McCain right now has a 9-12% bump in the Gallup poll right?

-8 to +7 = 15, or 7.5% if one is counting the percentage who switched. I don't know if the nomenclature of bounce is the former or the latter.

[Sam Spade]

Gallup refers to the bounce as the amount of support a candidate has gained, not the change in margin, just fyi.

[Brittain33]

McCain will probably lead several polls this week. I think we'll have to wait and see how things look in a week or two before we get a really good idea of where the race stands.

Many Democrats have optimistically looked at this as 1980-redux (only with Dems the beneficiaries) --  I wonder if the best comparison is actually 1960. 1960 was a Democratic year, with most of the fundamentals pointing to a Democratic victory. 1958 had seen huge Democratic gains in Congress. Yet there were concerns about Kennedy's religion and experience and in the end the race was very close.

Of course, one big difference was that Ike was nowhere near as unpopular as Bush is. Nixon benefited from his association with Ike. McCain, by contrast, benefits from NOT being associated with Bush -- despite Democratic attempts to tie him to Bush, McCain's favorables remain stubbornly high. He is one of the most well-known politicians in the country and he has a reputation from Bush's first term for moderation and independence. That's a perception that is difficult to completely dislodge.

My own guess is that given the fundamentals, this is going to be an Obama victory. But it'll probably be a narrow one, with a popular vote margin anywhere between 0.5-4% (probably 1-2%) and an electoral college victory that is also quite narrow. I'm not at all confident about Ohio -- though Obama has led polls there, Ohio (and Michigan and Pennsylvania) are places where I'd expect to see a Bradley effect in the polls, meaning that Michigan and Pennsylvania will probably go to Obama but will be closer than polled and Ohio may well go to McCain. So at this point, if we're looking at a very narrow Obama lead, I'd expect his most likely EV victory route to go through holding the Gore/Kerry states (incl. NH, Iowa, and New Mexico), and winning Colorado, Virginia or both.

Man, for a minute there I thought you were jsojourner and had backed away from the ledge.

Anyway, I agree with this. It sounds quite plausible.

[Eraserhead]

Well, that's a decent bounce. The next couple of days could be even better for him. No reason to believe it'll last at this point though.

[J. J.]

Well, that's a decent bounce. The next couple of days could be even better for him. No reason to believe it'll last at this point though.

Didn't you express the belief that McCain would still be behind about 48 hours ago?

[Eraserhead]

Well, that's a decent bounce. The next couple of days could be even better for him. No reason to believe it'll last at this point though.

Didn't you express the belief that McCain would still be behind about 48 hours ago?

I don't recall. If I did, I was wrong, obviously. At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

[Person Man]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

He sure misses the mark for a MENSA dude....

[J. J.]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

It look like they were closing.  Hey, I said it, PPP had it right.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

It look like they were closing.

Only if you give ARG any validity and/or compare apples to oranges in the polls by trying to find a trend from polls with obviously vastly different methodologies, both of which are ridiculous.

[J. J.]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

He sure misses the mark for a MENSA dude....

Expected a four point lead on one of the polls and got it.  I don't know what more you want.

I can use smaller words if it can help you Epsilons.  

[Person Man]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

It look like they were closing.

Only if you give ARG any validity and/or compare apples to oranges in the polls by trying to find a trend from polls with obviously vastly different methodologies, both of which are ridiculous.

I don't know how J.J. is in person. I bet he's a pretty nice guy, and sometimes he comes off that way....but he says some pretty inaccurate and ignorant things that make it hard for me to believe that.  

[Person Man]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

He sure misses the mark for a MENSA dude....

Expected a four point lead on one of the polls and got it.  I don't know what more you want.

I can use smaller words if it can help you Epsilons.  

Epsilons...hehe.... You are funny though. Fu cked up like me.

[J. J.]

At least I'll admit when I'm wrong.

True. You did after NH too, yet J. J. never owned up to his retarded babble about Wisconsin.

He sure misses the mark for a MENSA dude....

Expected a four point lead on one of the polls and got it.  I don't know what more you want.

I can use smaller words if it can help you Epsilons.  

Epsilons...hehe.... You are funny though. Fu cked up like me.

I am the guy who listed Palin as a bad choice for VP however. 

[pragmatic liberal]

McCain will probably have a larger lead in both the Gallup and Rasmussen polls tomorrow. We'll also got a clutch of state polling this week, and my guess is that on balance they'll be pretty favorable to McCain -- lots of Obama leads within the MoE and several McCain leads in critical swing states.

It's not gonna be fun for guys on my side. But I'm gonna try and stay calm and wait it out. McCain got a bounce (just as Obama got one), and given that he got to go second, plus the big interest in the Palin pick, it'll probably subside more slowly. In, at most, two weeks, we'll have a better idea of what the equilibrium of the race is and whether that equilibrium is new (either genuinely tied or a McCain lead) or whether it reverts to the old equilibrium (Obama slightly ahead).

[??????????]

McCain will probably have a larger lead in both the Gallup and Rasmussen polls tomorrow. We'll also got a clutch of state polling this week, and my guess is that on balance they'll be pretty favorable to McCain -- lots of Obama leads within the MoE and several McCain leads in critical swing states.

It's not gonna be fun for guys on my side. But I'm gonna try and stay calm and wait it out. McCain got a bounce (just as Obama got one), and given that he got to go second, plus the big interest in the Palin pick, it'll probably subside more slowly. In, at most, two weeks, we'll have a better idea of what the equilibrium of the race is and whether that equilibrium is new (either genuinely tied or a McCain lead) or whether it reverts to the old equilibrium (Obama slightly ahead).

A reasonable analysis and one I agree with.