Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

Trying to figure out the day by day totals of the tracking polls is nothing but guesswork.

You are basing assumptions off of assumptions. You are assuming that you know what the day rolling off is, in order to determine what the new day coming on is. After days upon days of guesswork, the margin of error becomes very large, thus putting those numbers in high doubt.

[Alcon]

Trying to figure out the day by day totals of the tracking polls is nothing but guesswork.

You are basing assumptions off of assumptions. You are assuming that you know what the day rolling off is, in order to determine what the new day coming on is. After days upon days of guesswork, the margin of error becomes very large, thus putting those numbers in high doubt.

That doesn't make any mathematical sense at all.  It's a three-day rolling average.  It's the margins of the days divided by three.  You can stagger it (I'm sure, because I've done it before, I just don't remember how) and determine the approximate daily average within a small range.

Margin of error?  what?  Margin of error is a sampling issue; it has nothing to do with calculating poll averages like this.  And there may be errors, but they will average out -- otherwise the rolling average would be significantly off.  Since it's based on rolling average, that isn't possible.

It's not exact (there are rounding issues) but it isn't "guesswork."

[Ronnie]

The bounce is not enough for my liking.

[Lunar]

Trying to figure out the day by day totals of the tracking polls is nothing but guesswork.

You are basing assumptions off of assumptions. You are assuming that you know what the day rolling off is, in order to determine what the new day coming on is. After days upon days of guesswork, the margin of error becomes very large, thus putting those numbers in high doubt.

If by "guesswork" you mean a mathematical algorithm, then I agree.

[ChrisFromNJ]

The bounce is not enough for my liking.

It will go away soon after the convention.

It must be very worrying to the McCain campaign that despite all the hoopla and excitement regarding Sarah Palin and how she might as well get her curtains measured in the White House, that McCain is very likely to see a lead that is beyond the margin of error, or even a lead at all.

This is the high point of the presidential cycle for the GOP this election cycle.

[JohnCA246]

well it's way to early to tell, but Obama certainly got a bigger day after bounce.  Still, got to wait a few days to tell who won the battle of the conventions.

[minionofmidas]

Trying to figure out the day by day totals of the tracking polls is nothing but guesswork.

You are basing assumptions off of assumptions. You are assuming that you know what the day rolling off is, in order to determine what the new day coming on is. After days upon days of guesswork, the margin of error becomes very large, thus putting those numbers in high doubt.

That doesn't make any mathematical sense at all.  It's a three-day rolling average.  It's the margins of the days divided by three.  You can stagger it (I'm sure, because I've done it before, I just don't remember how) and determine the approximate daily average within a small range.

Margin of error?  what?  Margin of error is a sampling issue; it has nothing to do with calculating poll averages like this.  And there may be errors, but they will average out -- otherwise the rolling average would be significantly off.  Since it's based on rolling average, that isn't possible.

It's not exact (there are rounding issues) but it isn't "guesswork."

Breaking it down here:
The average for the last three days is of course no guesswork at all.
Individual days include a portion of guesswork o/c, although the longer the time frame you use, the better it should get.
The difference between one day and the day three days previously is no guesswork at all.
Very large bounces are of course going to be readily apparent with no major guesswork involved.

ie, if you assume that the 23rd and 24th were actually both McCain +1, that gives
25th McCain +4, 26th Obama +8, 27th Obama +14, 28th Obama +2, 29th Obama +8, etc. Stretch it across a long timeline, compare with events and assumptions about a trend for Obama to poll better on weekends, and you should be able to come up with a highly reasonable assumption at what's most likely.

[Brittain33]

Saturday - September 6, 2008

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

[Ronnie]

The bounce is not enough for my liking.

It will go away soon after the convention.

It must be very worrying to the McCain campaign that despite all the hoopla and excitement regarding Sarah Palin and how she might as well get her curtains measured in the White House, that McCain is very likely to see a lead that is beyond the margin of error, or even a lead at all.

This is the high point of the presidential cycle for the GOP this election cycle.

Too bad the bounce isn't over yet.

[Sam Spade]

Straightforward math would tell us today's sample was somewhere around McCain +1 to McCain +3 given the graph posted above.

[Verily]

Straightforward math would tell us today's sample was somewhere around McCain +1 to McCain +3 given the graph posted above.

More like a tie to M+2. (7+1+0)/3 = 2.333, (7+1-1)/3 = 2, (7+1-2)/3 = 1.667. M+3 would give an Obama lead of 1. Of course, allowing for the possibility that O+7 and O+1 are rounded, it could be anywhere from O+2 to M+3.

[Sam Spade]

Straightforward math would tell us today's sample was somewhere around McCain +1 to McCain +3 given the graph posted above.

More like a tie to M+2. (7+1+0)/3 = 2.333, (7+1-1)/3 = 2, (7+1-2)/3 = 1.667. M+3 would give an Obama lead of 1. Of course, allowing for the possibility that O+7 and O+1 are rounded, it could be anywhere from O+2 to M+3.

Ya, that's right.  Anyway, please continue to be patient... 

EDIT:  If Wed is O+7 and Thurs is O+1, then M+3 on Friday, would give you 5/3 = 1.667.  So, my number is right, so long as those numbers are right.  We should have a better feeling by Monday at the earliest, Thursday at the latest, IMHO.

[Verily]

Straightforward math would tell us today's sample was somewhere around McCain +1 to McCain +3 given the graph posted above.

More like a tie to M+2. (7+1+0)/3 = 2.333, (7+1-1)/3 = 2, (7+1-2)/3 = 1.667. M+3 would give an Obama lead of 1. Of course, allowing for the possibility that O+7 and O+1 are rounded, it could be anywhere from O+2 to M+3.

Ya, that's right.  Anyway, please continue to be patient... 

EDIT:  If Wed is O+7 and Thurs is O+1, then M+3 on Friday, would give you 5/3 = 1.667.  So, my number is right, so long as those numbers are right.  We should have a better feeling by Monday at the earliest, Thursday at the latest, IMHO.

Wait, you're right. My math sucks. Sorry.

[Sam Spade]

Since everyone here seems to like and respect him (even though I retain my doubts), this is what Nate Silver says Gallup and Rasmussen look like:

Gallup
Wednesday: Obama +7.8
Thursday: Obama +2.4
Friday: McCain +4.2

Rasmussen
Wednesday: Obama +4.9
Thursday: Obama +3.8
Friday: Obama +0.3

More on his opinion here:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/06/today-s-polls-the-bounce-cometh.aspx

[CPT MikeyMike]

Sunday - September 7, 2008

McCain - 48% (+3)
Obama - 45% (-2)

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow's report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

[Ronnie]

Yeah, baby!

[Aizen]

NoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


This.... this can't be happening...! Gah!

[Ronnie]

NoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


This.... this can't be happening...! Gah!

The best part is that the bounce isn't even over yet!!!!! 

[Sam Spade]

If Silver is right, this means Saturday's numbers were somewhere in the ballpark of McCain +7 (+1 or -1).

[Keystone Phil]

At first, I thought it said Obama up three!

This is great.

[Ronnie]

At first, I thought it said Obama up three!

This is great.

Yeah, if McCain holds onto these numbers until election day, he may be able to put PA into play.

I doubt it, though.

[Rococo4]

Since everyone here seems to like and respect him (even though I retain my doubts), this is what Nate Silver says Gallup and Rasmussen look like:

Gallup
Wednesday: Obama +7.8
Thursday: Obama +2.4
Friday: McCain +4.2

Rasmussen
Wednesday: Obama +4.9
Thursday: Obama +3.8
Friday: Obama +0.3

More on his opinion here:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/06/today-s-polls-the-bounce-cometh.aspx

the guy knows no more than anyone here.....

[Democratic Hawk]

The Republicans are never going to own their failure. The sheer thought that a president can leave his country in worse shape than he found it and see his party rewarded with a third term is bad enough

Part of the reason I'm supporting Obama is that he is a Democrat, and what with America being a center-right nation in that conservatives outnumber liberals 3 to 2, he knows that if he is elected he has to govern competently and deliver on his promises otherwise he'll be out in 2012. McCain could just come in be as good as hapless yet stand an even chance of winning re-election in four years time. Seen it all happen with Bush

There's no accountability. Imagine just how prosperous and respected America would have been now had Bush never been elected

Dave

[Keystone Phil]

The Republicans are never going to own their failure.

Uh huh. And the disaster known as the Democratic "leadership" in the 110th Congress is only going to see their majority expand. 

[Ronnie]

McCain being a third Bush term is simply a false statement.  I mean, even if he tried to be a third Bush term, he couldn't be one, just because of the large majority the Democrats will have in congress.  If he truly was another Bush term, I don't think I would be able to support him.