Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday - August 30, 2008

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 41% (nc)

[exopolitician]

did you know, more people watch dancing with the stars than do vote in a presidential election?

Sad.

[J. J.]

Saturday - August 30, 2008

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 41% (nc)

I hate to say this, but I'm not convinced that isn't still part of the McCain mid week bounce from the summer.  I'm not too excited just yet.

[Nutmeg]

I hate to say this, but I'm not convinced that isn't still part of the McCain mid week bounce from the summer.

What do you mean?

[Ronnie]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

You wish.  Don't forget that Reagan was the underdog before the debates.  I don't know how the debates will go, but the election is by far over.

[ChrisFromNJ]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

You wish.  Don't forget that Reagan was the underdog before the debates.  I don't know how the debates will go, but the election is by far over.

Not every election is like 1980, as much as the Republicans would like to hope so.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

You wish.  Don't forget that Reagan was the underdog before the debates.  I don't know how the debates will go, but the election is by far over.

Agreed; however, I assume you agree that Obama does have an edge, yes?

[J. J.]

I hate to say this, but I'm not convinced that isn't still part of the McCain mid week bounce from the summer.

What do you mean?

These can be low numbers for Obama.  He normally should get an uptick tomorrow or Monday

[Harry Hayfield]

Saturday - August 30, 2008

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 41% (nc)

Could I ask if these are "likely voters" or "registered voters" and what difference the two terms mean?

[Ronnie]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

You wish.  Don't forget that Reagan was the underdog before the debates.  I don't know how the debates will go, but the election is by far over.

Agreed; however, I assume you agree that Obama does have an edge, yes?

Sure, I don't think anyone is arguing with that.

[J. J.]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

You wish.  Don't forget that Reagan was the underdog before the debates.  I don't know how the debates will go, but the election is by far over.

Agreed; however, I assume you agree that Obama does have an edge, yes?

Sure, I don't think anyone is arguing with that.

When you factor out all the bouncing that is/will probably be going on, maybe not.  September 11-15 will be telling.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Sunday - August 31, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

[Keystone Phil]

Sunday - August 31, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

So he got a three to six point bounce. Not bad for McCain.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - August 31, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Though down slightly from the eight-point lead Obama held mid-convention, this represents a clear improvement for the Democratic candidate's positioning in the campaign compared to a week ago when the race was about tied. The last Gallup update conducted entirely before Obama's convention and vice presidential announcement was based on interviews conducted Aug. 20-22, and showed Obama up by two points, 46% to 44%.

As the recent trend shows, Obama did not gain any additional support in the poll since his generally well-reviewed acceptance speech on Thursday night. However, the Aug. 28-30 field period also includes two days of interviewing since the Friday morning announcement by McCain that he has chosen Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to join him on the Republican ticket. Thus, it is unclear whether the full positive impact on national voters of the Democratic convention or Obama's speech would have been greater if not for the Palin announcement.

As Gallup has noted in recent weeks, both the vice-presidential selections and the national conventions have historically produced small bumps in support for the presidential candidates associated with those events (on the order of about five percentage points for each). However, this year, Obama's announcement of Joe Biden as his running mate produced no immediate increase in support for Obama in a one-night USA Today/Gallup reaction poll.

Given that the immediate reaction by national voters to Palin was very similar to their first reaction to Biden -- mildly positive but also with a high degree of uncertainty about each -- it may not be surprising if the publicity surrounding her announcement also does not produce an immediate bounce in support for McCain.

The mounting news coverage over the past 48 hours of the impending landfall of Hurricane Gustav on the Gulf Coast introduces still another variable into the mix of factors possibly affecting voter reaction to the recent campaign events.

Monday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report will be the first three-day rolling average based entirely on interviews conducted after the Democratic National Convention, as well as after the announcement of Palin as McCain's choice for vice president.

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 31, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

So he got a three to six point bounce. Not bad for McCain.

And, it's the weekend, probably a bit inflated for Obama in this poll.  Palin still isn't completely in the mix, but it looks like it is favorable.

[Wiz in Wis]

Sunday - August 31, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

So he got a three to six point bounce. Not bad for McCain.

And, it's the weekend, probably a bit inflated for Obama in this poll.  Palin still isn't completely in the mix, but it looks like it is favorable.

Considering the day that was dropped saw a 5 point shift to Obama, only losing 2 is not exactly terrible

[Meeker]

Monday - September 1st, 2008

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

[CPT MikeyMike]

Some additional notes...

Comparing Obama's current 49% support with the 45% he received immediately before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Denver last week suggests he received a 4-point bounce out of the convention, fairly typical of past convention bounces. Aside from the past few days, Obama has only once previously attained 49% support from national voters, and that was in late July.

The determination of this year's Democratic convention bounce is complicated by the fact that McCain announced his pick for vice president -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- on the first morning after the convention, thus diverting considerable media attention to the McCain campaign that otherwise would have been focused on recapping the Democratic convention and Obama's Thursday night acceptance speech. However, even using Friday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report as the indicator of Obama's convention bounce produces the same result. Obama was preferred by 49% of registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 26-28, after the Democratic National Convention was underway, but before the Palin choice was made public.

Given this year's unusually condensed convention and vice presidential selection calendar, today's tracking report also represents the first three days following McCain's vice presidential announcement. McCain's 43% level of support in today's report contrasts with 41% supporting McCain right before the Palin choice was revealed, giving McCain a 2-point vice presidential selection bounce.

While lower than typical vice presidential selection bounces, McCain's 2-point vice-presidential bounce is technically better than the complete lack of a vice presidential bounce seen for Obama with his selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden on Aug. 23. However, from a statistical standpoint, both shifts are within the margin of sampling error, and thus not significant.

[Brittain33]

Tuesday - September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

[Dan the Roman]

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Continued Palin bounce.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Where's the Palin bounce?

[Iosif]

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Where's the Palin bounce?

It's the hurricane. Republicans aren't home to answer the phones.

[Wiz in Wis]

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Where's the Palin bounce?

It's the hurricane. Republicans aren't home to answer the phones.

In a national poll... there arent that many republicans in the gulf states... remember, even at their max, their only 60% of four states... not exactly a big deal.

Still, 2pt shift is small enough to just be an artifact of Labor day polling

[Sam Spade]

Numbers-wise, Gallup's day sample today looks pretty similar to Rasmussen's - probably somewhere in-between O+11 and O+13 after being O+6 the past couple of days.  Obama should probably move up tomorrow slightly, depending on how much movement there is tomorrow.

[J. J.]

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Where's the Palin bounce?

It's the hurricane. Republicans aren't home to answer the phones.

In a national poll... there arent that many republicans in the gulf states... remember, even at their max, their only 60% of four states... not exactly a big deal.

Still, 2pt shift is small enough to just be an artifact of Labor day polling

Or a weekend one on this poll.  It might have been an early bounce for Palin that left.  As I've said, wait for the 15th.