Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

You know, at least in some ways, Having a Hurricane during McCain's convention could be more damaging than anything Obama could hit him with... Even if it just diverts some coverage.

Symbolism is a powerful thing.

Praying for victims can help.  Yes, I'm a cynic.

Praying for victims during the convention? 

Yes, as in, "Let's have a moment to pray for those people in the path of Hurricane Gustav (Gustaf?)."  It was for the country, but Reagan did it in 1980.

[Alcon]

Yes, as in, "Let's have a moment to pray for those people in the path of Hurricane Gustav (Gustaf?)."  It was for the country, but Reagan did it in 1980.

I think Americans would see that as a nice gesture, but it hardly defuses the central problem:  the networks aren't going to pre-empt coverage of a major hurricane to re-broadcast the RNC footage -- prayer or otherwise.

[Josh/Devilman88]

This should prove that God is for Obama!! Just Picking.

[J. J.]

Yes, as in, "Let's have a moment to pray for those people in the path of Hurricane Gustav (Gustaf?)."  It was for the country, but Reagan did it in 1980.

I think Americans would see that as a nice gesture, but it hardly defuses the central problem:  the networks aren't going to pre-empt coverage of a major hurricane to re-broadcast the RNC footage -- prayer or otherwise.

I didn't say it would.  I was referring to the symbolism.  It also depends on if the storm is "photogenic," for lack of a better word.  Katrina itself wasn't, but the aftermath was.

[Alcon]

Yes, as in, "Let's have a moment to pray for those people in the path of Hurricane Gustav (Gustaf?)."  It was for the country, but Reagan did it in 1980.

I think Americans would see that as a nice gesture, but it hardly defuses the central problem:  the networks aren't going to pre-empt coverage of a major hurricane to re-broadcast the RNC footage -- prayer or otherwise.

I didn't say it would.  I was referring to the symbolism.  It also depends on if the storm is "photogenic," for lack of a better word.  Katrina itself wasn't, but the aftermath was.

And McCain really wants to get into a battle over photo ops regarding hurricanes?  That would present a great opportunity for stock footage.

In any case, I have to say, J. J., your ability to find optimism for Republicans in every twist and turn of this election season is remarkable

[ChrisFromNJ]

The latest one-day sample is apparently Obama +15. That is where the bump is coming from.

[Alcon]

The latest one-day sample is apparently Obama +15. That is where the bump is coming from.

[lololololol]

15-point bump

[/lololololol]

[ChrisFromNJ]

The latest one-day sample is apparently Obama +15. That is where the bump is coming from.

[lololololol]

15-point bump

[/lololololol]

When did I ever say that?

[J. J.]

Yes, as in, "Let's have a moment to pray for those people in the path of Hurricane Gustav (Gustaf?)."  It was for the country, but Reagan did it in 1980.

I think Americans would see that as a nice gesture, but it hardly defuses the central problem:  the networks aren't going to pre-empt coverage of a major hurricane to re-broadcast the RNC footage -- prayer or otherwise.

I didn't say it would.  I was referring to the symbolism.  It also depends on if the storm is "photogenic," for lack of a better word.  Katrina itself wasn't, but the aftermath was.

And McCain really wants to get into a battle over photo ops regarding hurricanes?  That would present a great opportunity for stock footage.

In any case, I have to say, J. J., your ability to find optimism for Republicans in every twist and turn of this election season is remarkable

I'm just talking about the symbolic aspects and the images.  Think back to Katrina.  How much footage did you actually see of it hitting?  Huge amounts of the aftermath, but not of it hitting.

Hey, I lived through a political campaign during the Iranian Hostage Crisis.  I saw what worked.

[Alcon]

The latest one-day sample is apparently Obama +15. That is where the bump is coming from.

[lololololol]

15-point bump

[/lololololol]

When did I ever say that?

No, no.  I was just saying that Obama is actually polling with a 15-point bump, like the McCain campaign "predicted."  Obviously just a result of a lucky sample and the convention bounce, but still

I'm just talking about the symbolic aspects and the images.  Think back to Katrina.  How much footage did you actually see of it hitting?  Huge amounts of the aftermath, but not of it hitting.

Hey, I lived through a political campaign during the Iranian Hostage Crisis.  I saw what worked.

No footage of it hitting.  But you don't think the media would run with this?



It seems to me like you'd be calling this potentially "very bad" or "disastrous" if this was Obama instead of McCain.  Maybe that's just me seeing that, though...

[??????????]

This should prove that God is for Obama!! Just Picking.

Obviously God would be for his son.

[J. J.]

The latest one-day sample is apparently Obama +15. That is where the bump is coming from.

[lololololol]

15-point bump

[/lololololol]

When did I ever say that?

No, no.  I was just saying that Obama is actually polling with a 15-point bump, like the McCain campaign "predicted."  Obviously just a result of a lucky sample and the convention bounce, but still

I'm just talking about the symbolic aspects and the images.  Think back to Katrina.  How much footage did you actually see of it hitting?  Huge amounts of the aftermath, but not of it hitting.

Hey, I lived through a political campaign during the Iranian Hostage Crisis.  I saw what worked.

No footage of it hitting.  But you don't think the media would run with this?



It seems to me like you'd be calling this potentially "very bad" or "disastrous" if this was Obama instead of McCain.  Maybe that's just me seeing that, though...

Not with being accused of gigantic bias and throwing the election to McCain.

[Alcon]

No footage of it hitting.  But you don't think the media would run with this?

[snip]

It seems to me like you'd be calling this potentially "very bad" or "disastrous" if this was Obama instead of McCain.  Maybe that's just me seeing that, though...

Not with being accused of gigantic bias and throwing the election to McCain.

Huh?

[War on Want]

This should prove that God is for Obama!! Just Picking.

Obviously God would be for his son.

Retarded joke is retarded joke.

[J. J.]

No footage of it hitting.  But you don't think the media would run with this?

[snip]

It seems to me like you'd be calling this potentially "very bad" or "disastrous" if this was Obama instead of McCain.  Maybe that's just me seeing that, though...

Not with being accused of gigantic bias and throwing the election to McCain.

Huh?

It would look too partisan and toss it to McCain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No footage of it hitting.  But you don't think the media would run with this?

[snip]

It seems to me like you'd be calling this potentially "very bad" or "disastrous" if this was Obama instead of McCain.  Maybe that's just me seeing that, though...

Not with being accused of gigantic bias and throwing the election to McCain.

Huh?

It would look too partisan and toss it to McCain.

LOL. LOL. NOw that is the height of hackery.

Pictures of McCain with Bush will get more people to vote for McCain. LOL. Now if you want to argue it wouldn't have much of an effect you might have a point but throw the election to McCain...LOL.

[The Mikado]

As Sam would say, "in form of Hawk:"

Obama 49 (+1)
McCain 41 (-1)

[Sam Spade]

Sounds about right.

[The Mikado]

Sam, I'm sure you've already discussed this elsewhere, but how do you see the GOP essentially stepping on the Dem's convention working out?

EDIT:

In terms of the bounce and polling, of course.

[Wiz in Wis]

Sam, I'm sure you've already discussed this elsewhere, but how do you see the GOP essentially stepping on the Dem's convention working out?

EDIT:

In terms of the bounce and polling, of course.

Am I the only one who thinks naming his VP now, the Friday before Labor day, when people are on vacation, you arent going to get the same response you would have any other time.

Not that McCain had a choice, but circumstances seem to be screwing him (see: Gustav, Hurricane).

[Democratic Hawk]

I, generally, like to post the write-up when the numbers change

As Sam would say, "in form of Hawk:"

Obama 49 (+1)
McCain 41 (-1)

Obama's significant lead over McCain almost certainly reflects the effects of the Democratic National Convention. The two presidential candidates were tied at 45% in the last Gallup Poll Daily tracking results conducted entirely before the convention began. The latest results include interviews from Tuesday through Thursday night, though most of the interviewing was conducted before Obama's acceptance speech late Thursday.

Gallup has measured the convention bounce for candidates in previous years by comparing the last poll conducted entirely before the convention began with the first poll conducted entirely after the convention concludes. That historical calculation is complicated this year by the intense media focus on McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate on Friday, and the increasing focus on next week's Republican National Convention.

Obama has clearly seen a rise in the polls since the convention began with a 4-point increase in his support (from 45% to 49%) with the margin moving eight points in his favor. Obama's largest advantage at any point in the campaign was a 9-point lead recorded July 24-26, so as his party's convention concludes, he is about as strongly positioned as he has been at any point this year.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, I'm sure you've already discussed this elsewhere, but how do you see the GOP essentially stepping on the Dem's convention working out?

EDIT:

In terms of the bounce and polling, of course.

You're talking about the VP pick right?  Not the rest of the stuff.  Hard to tell.  Probably mitigates it somewhat.  Be patient.

[Eraserhead]

I'm looking foward to seeing the impact of his speech. About 40 million people watched it live.

[Lunar]

I'm looking foward to seeing the impact of his speech. About 40 million people watched it live.

Note: That is more than the final episode of American Idol or the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games.

[Person Man]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.