Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Eraserhead]

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 41 (-2)

A thing of beauty.

[Likely Voter]

I just saw how Gallup is now talking about two different likely voter models

One based on 60% turnout and traditional metrics, one base on voter intent

Obama's lead is 7 in the first model and 10 in the second. It is a good guess that the first model is cutting out young voters who say they are sure they will vote for Obama, but the traditional model ignores them since youth tend to not show up.

I think as we get closer to election day the big dif between the various polling companies will be how they treat young likely voters.

[Rowan]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

[BlueSwan]

All tracking polls for today:

Gallup: Obama +10 (+3)
Rasmussen: Obama +5 (-1)
R2000: Obama +12 (-1)
Battleground: Obama +8 (-2)
Hotline: Obama +6 (-2)
Zogby: Obama +4 (-2)

So Obama loses ground everywhere, except in Gallups poll where he gains 3 points and yet again the polls are all over the place. The only constant is that Obama leads by at least 4 points.

If Gallup only looks at likely voters Obamas lead is cut to 7 points.

Battleground was unchanged.

Ooppps...my mistake!

[J. J.]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

Weekend number have tended to go up for Obama on Gallup.  I'm looking for trending in the tracking polls.

I think it is clear that there was no post debate bounce for Obama, and possibly some slight tightening. 

[Likely Voter]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

Weekend number have tended to go up for Obama on Gallup.  I'm looking for trending in the tracking polls.

I think it is clear that there was no post debate bounce for Obama, and possibly some slight tightening. 

What is your data to back that up?

RCP averages
Sept 26 (1st Pres. debate): Obama +4.2
October 2 (VP debate): Obama +5.7
October 7 (2nd Pres. debate): Obama +5.5
Today: Obama +7.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

same pattern at Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

[J. J.]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

Weekend number have tended to go up for Obama on Gallup.  I'm looking for trending in the tracking polls.

I think it is clear that there was no post debate bounce for Obama, and possibly some slight tightening. 

What is your data to back that up?

RCP averages
Sept 26 (1st Pres. debate): Obama +4.2
October 2 (VP debate): Obama +5.7
October 7 (2nd Pres. debate): Obama +5.5
Today: Obama +7.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

same pattern at Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

So far, today, only Gallup showed a real gain after the debate, almost immediately, then static, then four days of losses until today.  Any bounce should have built, not popped in on the Tuesday (pre debate) or Wednesday sample.

[Likely Voter]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

Weekend number have tended to go up for Obama on Gallup.  I'm looking for trending in the tracking polls.

I think it is clear that there was no post debate bounce for Obama, and possibly some slight tightening. 

What is your data to back that up?

RCP averages
Sept 26 (1st Pres. debate): Obama +4.2
October 2 (VP debate): Obama +5.7
October 7 (2nd Pres. debate): Obama +5.5
Today: Obama +7.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

same pattern at Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

So far, today, only Gallup showed a real gain after the debate, almost immediately, then static, then four days of losses until today.  Any bounce should have built, not popped in on the Tuesday (pre debate) or Wednesday sample.

so you just ignore that his average lead is greater today that it was the day of the debate? OK

[Sensei]

Drudge:  ZOGBY TUESDAY: OBAMA 49%, MCCAIN 43%... DEVELOPING...

throw it out

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Drudge:  ZOGBY TUESDAY: OBAMA 49%, MCCAIN 43%... DEVELOPING...

throw it out

sorry, misread it, thought is was gallup

[J. J.]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

Weekend number have tended to go up for Obama on Gallup.  I'm looking for trending in the tracking polls.

I think it is clear that there was no post debate bounce for Obama, and possibly some slight tightening. 

What is your data to back that up?

RCP averages
Sept 26 (1st Pres. debate): Obama +4.2
October 2 (VP debate): Obama +5.7
October 7 (2nd Pres. debate): Obama +5.5
Today: Obama +7.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

same pattern at Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

So far, today, only Gallup showed a real gain after the debate, almost immediately, then static, then four days of losses until today.  Any bounce should have built, not popped in on the Tuesday (pre debate) or Wednesday sample.

so you just ignore that his average lead is greater today that it was the day of the debate? OK

We were discussing a debate "bounce." 

Gallup October 7th:  52/41  (from today, -1, nc)

Rasmussen October 7th:  52/44 (from today, -2, +1)

Now, please explain this "bounce" thing again?

[Likely Voter]

Crikey. Must have been a big Obama night.

Weekend number have tended to go up for Obama on Gallup.  I'm looking for trending in the tracking polls.

I think it is clear that there was no post debate bounce for Obama, and possibly some slight tightening. 

What is your data to back that up?

RCP averages
Sept 26 (1st Pres. debate): Obama +4.2
October 2 (VP debate): Obama +5.7
October 7 (2nd Pres. debate): Obama +5.5
Today: Obama +7.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

same pattern at Pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

So far, today, only Gallup showed a real gain after the debate, almost immediately, then static, then four days of losses until today.  Any bounce should have built, not popped in on the Tuesday (pre debate) or Wednesday sample.

so you just ignore that his average lead is greater today that it was the day of the debate? OK

We were discussing a debate "bounce." 

Gallup October 7th:  52/41  (from today, -1, nc)

Rasmussen October 7th:  52/44 (from today, -2, +1)

Now, please explain this "bounce" thing again?

well that is actually the wrong data for Gallup...it was Obama 51%, McCain 42%

Looking at all the tracking polls from debate 2 day to today you get the following.
Gallup: +9 / +10 (+1)
Rasmussen: + 8 / +5 (-3)
Hotline: +2 / +6 (+4)
Research 2000: +11 / +12 (+1)

So the average of all polls has Obama going up a couple points and three out of four tracking polls has him going up.  I am sorry but looking at all the data (as of now) it does not support your 'it has narrowed' theory. Maybe it will narrow tomorrow or later, but as of now it has not.

[J. J.]

Looking at all the tracking polls from debate 2 day to today you get the following.
Gallup: +9 / +10 (+1)
Rasmussen: + 8 / +5 (-3)
Hotline: +2 / +6 (+4)
Research 2000: +11 / +12 (+1)

So the average of all polls has Obama going up a couple points and three out of four tracking polls has him going up.  I am sorry but looking at all the data (as of now) it does not support your 'it has narrowed' theory. Maybe it will narrow tomorrow or later, but as of now it has not.

Sorry, I was looking at the Gallup for the day before.  Hotline had a bad sample in it at that point (it was a pro-McCain sample dropping off; he had a +3 point gain) and Koz is hopelessly skewed.  Zogby shows about a point drop, but not after the debate, but it of course is Zogby.

So basically, no bounce, though there was enlarging of the lead in Gallup (that wasn't matched elsewhere).

[Likely Voter]

Looking at all the tracking polls from debate 2 day to today you get the following.
Gallup: +9 / +10 (+1)
Rasmussen: + 8 / +5 (-3)
Hotline: +2 / +6 (+4)
Research 2000: +11 / +12 (+1)

So the average of all polls has Obama going up a couple points and three out of four tracking polls has him going up.  I am sorry but looking at all the data (as of now) it does not support your 'it has narrowed' theory. Maybe it will narrow tomorrow or later, but as of now it has not.

Sorry, I was looking at the Gallup for the day before.  Hotline had a bad sample in it at that point (it was a pro-McCain sample dropping off; he had a +3 point gain) and Koz is hopelessly skewed.  Zogby shows about a point drop, but not after the debate, but it of course is Zogby.

So basically, no bounce, though there was enlarging of the lead in Gallup (that wasn't matched elsewhere).

yes if you can pick and choose what data to pay attention to, then yes your world view is easier to support

[J. J.]

Looking at all the tracking polls from debate 2 day to today you get the following.
Gallup: +9 / +10 (+1)
Rasmussen: + 8 / +5 (-3)
Hotline: +2 / +6 (+4)
Research 2000: +11 / +12 (+1)

So the average of all polls has Obama going up a couple points and three out of four tracking polls has him going up.  I am sorry but looking at all the data (as of now) it does not support your 'it has narrowed' theory. Maybe it will narrow tomorrow or later, but as of now it has not.

Sorry, I was looking at the Gallup for the day before.  Hotline had a bad sample in it at that point (it was a pro-McCain sample dropping off; he had a +3 point gain) and Koz is hopelessly skewed.  Zogby shows about a point drop, but not after the debate, but it of course is Zogby.

So basically, no bounce, though there was enlarging of the lead in Gallup (that wasn't matched elsewhere).

yes if you can pick and choose what data to pay attention to, then yes your world view is easier to support

I'm still not seeing any great post debate bounce.  Gallup was only one that moved solidly upward in the four days after the debate and that one shrunk after one of the samples dropped off (and it was a pre-debate sample).

[© tweed]

10/14/08

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

10/14/08

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

is this LV or RV?

[© tweed]

10/14/08

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

is this LV or RV?

RV, LV (expanded) is 53-43, traditional LV is 51-45

[BlueSwan]

Tuesday 14th, 2008:

Somewhat reliable polls:
Gallup: Obama +9 (-1)
Rasmussen: Obama +5 (-)

Unreliable polls:
R2000: Obama +11 (-1)
Battleground: Obama +13 (+5)
Hotline: Obama +6 (-)
Zogby: Obama +6 (+2)

[J. J.]

Possibly the better weekend numbers on Gallup for Obama (or worse for McCain).

Hotline might be "semi reliable."

[Sam Spade]

10/14/08

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

is this LV or RV?

We really need to post all three:

RV
Obama 51
McCain 42

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

[© tweed]

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

Really no way of knowing until after the election.

[© tweed]

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

Really no way of knowing until after the election.

if we took that attitude for everything we'd have no reason to post here!  and wouldn't that be a shame.

[ChrisFromNJ]

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

If you think the turnout models in 2004 and previous elections will be the same in this election, use the traditional model. If you think turnout models will be different, and there will be plenty of new voters, then use the new model.