Dems in 2008: 12 Pickup Opportunities in Senate?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think that the Democrats will pick-up Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Colorado at least - so thats D+4 taking them up to a 53-47 majority in the Senate.  However, I also expect them to have at least one, and likely more than one, gain somewhere else.  This is the wildcard.  I feel it could occur in Oregon, Minnesota, Alaska, Mississippi or even the remote (I do mean remote) possibility of North Carolina or Texas.  So I suppose I expect the Democratic Majoirty in the Senate to end up being about 55-45, but perhaps more than that - I do not think 60 seats is possible at this stage, however.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think that the Democrats will pick-up Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Colorado at least - so thats D+4 taking them up to a 53-47 majority in the Senate. 

Which would actually be 55-45 considering Sanders and Lieberman siding with the Dems (assuming Lieberman is still in the Senate and still siding with the Dems ).

Well they have a 49-49 majority as such now.  So I suppose you're right, but now I'm confused!  So in fact if the Democrats gained around 6 seats (As I expect them to) they would in fact have a 57-43 majority wouldn't they?  OK I understand.  That's good LOL!

[Adlai Stevenson]

1) Virginia

Virginia won't be competitive this Senatorial Election season. Warner should easily encounter for  Gilmore in a walk. Warner could potentially break 60 percent. Though at this point in time, I'm predicting 58-42%. D PICKUP

2) New Mexico

New Mexico isn't likely to be competitive in 2008, though it could end up being like the Senatorial Election in Virginia, with Congressman Udall winning in a walk. At this point, I'm saying it's lean Democrat and Udall should win against Pearce 54-45%. D PICKUP

3) Colorado

Colorado, unlike Virginia and potentially New Mexico should be competitive this Election season. Going by current polls, yet another Congressman Udall pick up a Senate seat this November and  should defeat Bob Schaffer. At this point, I'm saying it's lean Democrat, with Udall to win 52-48%. D PICKUP

4) New Hampshire

New Hampshire has the potential to be competitive, but the way current polls are suggesting, I would predict that former Governor Jeanne Shaheen would defeat incumbent Senator Sununu. Shaheen should defeat Sununu 53-47%. Like with Colorado, I would put New Hampshire in the lean Democrat column. D PICKUP

5) Alaska

Who would have thought that Alaska might be competitive this November, we have all been proven wrong with this Senate race. I would expect the Mayor of Ancorhage, Mark Begich to defeat incumbent Ted Stevens (if he runs) 51-49%. Though saying this, I would say that Alaska is a pure tossup. TOSSUP

6) Oregon

Should be one of the most competitive Senate races this year. I would expect incumbent Gordon Smith to fight off his likely opponent Jeff Merkley and keep the Oregon Senate seat in control of the Republican Party. Smith should defeat Merkley 52-48%. R HOLD

7) Minnesota

A little while ago, I believed that Al Franken could actually win a Senate seat. My beliefs have been diminished and I now expect incumbent Norm Coleman to encounter for Franken, even with former Governor Jesse Ventura in the race, which should make this Election even more interesting and competitive. Coleman should defeat Franken 53-47%. R HOLD

Maine

Whilst some believe that the Senatorial Election in Maine will be competitive, I highly doubt it will. Collins should be able to win a third term, defeating Congressman Tom Allen by a comfortable margin. Whilst her margin of victory won't be like her 2002 victory, Collins should defeat Allen 54-46%. R HOLD

9) Mississippi (Wicker-Musgrove race)

I don't see Harry's man Ronnie Musgrove being able to pick up a Senate seat in the Deep South in 2008. Wicker should easily win, probably 57-43%. R HOLD

10) North Carolina

North Carolina won't be competitive this Senate season. Liddy Dole should be able to win re-election in 2008. If Obama cannot win in North Carolina, then I doubt Kay Hagan can either. Dole should be able to defeat Hagan 55-45%. R HOLD

11) Texas

John Cornyn's Senate seat in Texas is a safe one, this it will not be competitive this Senate Season. Whilst Cornyn is like his Oklahoma counterparts, I don't see him losing to a man who's last name is Noriega, which is a shame. Cornyn should defeat Noriega 56-44%. R HOLD

12) Nebraska

Safe Republican no doubt about it. Johanns will be able to defeat Scott Klebb by a landslide of epic porportions. No point even predicting how much he'll win by, we all know it's going to be big.


You can probably tell, I do not know much about Senate races in the United States, so the margins will be a bit off what most of you guys expect they'll be. Thus, I don't care how badly you rip into my predictions.

Not everything always adds up to 100% exactly in the Senate races - I mean there are third-party candidates etc.  So its not always going to be 52%-48%.