Controlling for race, are suburbs different from what they once were?

[freepcrusher]

Like dupage county used to be very Republican and now it's at the point where local races are starting to be won by Dems. Even if you control for race, Biden still won the white vote and even if he didn't, it's a lot closer than when rs could win it easily by 30-40 points.

So are the types of white people in dupage county different from those of the 80s and 90s or is it more of a Dixiecrat to Republican like switch?

[jojoju1998]

American Suburbs are becoming more influenced by white collar wine track liberalism in the last 20 years or so.

[Crumpets]

During the housing bubble, getting a mortgage for a suburban home was much easier (not because houses were cheaper, but just because banks were more reckless in handing out mortgages). Nowadays, suburbs, even if socially more diverse, are more out of reach economically than they were, say 20 years ago. At the same time, we're at a point where the generation of 80s-90s tech entrepreneurs are hitting retirement age and, even if most probably aren't newly moving to the suburbs for the first time, that's one of the cadres that can afford to, and which might be looking to leave the city. So the educational/career background of suburbanites is also shifting.

[Badger]

One. Increased diversity. These collar counties now have significant African-American and Hispanic populations voting heavily democratic, as opposed to being nearly White in the '80s and even part of the 90s.

Two.  Increased antipathy of college educated voters, especially those with postgraduate degrees, to a Republican Party platform that stands for square in favor of global warming being a hoax, a base that opposes teaching evolution, believes that homosexuality and transgenderism are mental illnesses, etc etc.

Three. Some of these suburbs are starting to have Urban Decay creep from their Metropolitan center. A lot of ones middle class voters are working class and upper middle class barely middle class compared to a couple decades ago.

[Skill and Chance]

During the housing bubble, getting a mortgage for a suburban home was much easier (not because houses were cheaper, but just because banks were more reckless in handing out mortgages). Nowadays, suburbs, even if socially more diverse, are more out of reach economically than they were, say 20 years ago. At the same time, we're at a point where the generation of 80s-90s tech entrepreneurs are hitting retirement age and, even if most probably aren't newly moving to the suburbs for the first time, that's one of the cadres that can afford to, and which might be looking to leave the city. So the educational/career background of suburbanites is also shifting.

I don't think this is quite true.  The current housing crisis is a very recent phenomenon (at least outside of NYC/SF metros), especially for people who are willing to move to the suburbs.  On a national average, housing prices are now 1.5X what they were at the beginning of COVID.  In parts of the Sunbelt, its >2X.  When you combine that with rising interest rates, your mortgage payment is >2X what it would have been in 2020 for the very same house (>3X for some people in the Sunbelt). 

However, the 2010's were a totally different story.  If you kept your job after 2008, the early 2010's were literally the best buying opportunity for suburban single family homes since WWII! You had people with only modestly above average incomes becoming mega landlords during this period.

And while prices gradually increased in the late 2010's, they weren't obviously increasing faster than incomes.  There was actually a slight nominal price decline after the initial efforts to raise interest rates in 2018-19.  Suburban homes were more affordable than the historical average literally until the eve of COVID.  Yes, underwriting standards were stricter, but if you could get a loan, mortgage rates were <= 5% for over a decade.  IMO this is a hugely underrated factor in why so many voters keep counterintuitively saying the economy was better in 2020.

[freepcrusher]

One. Increased diversity. These collar counties now have significant African-American and Hispanic populations voting heavily democratic, as opposed to being nearly White in the '80s and even part of the 90s.

did you not read the first three words of the title?

Two.  Increased antipathy of college educated voters, especially those with postgraduate degrees, to a Republican Party platform that stands for square in favor of global warming being a hoax, a base that opposes teaching evolution, believes that homosexuality and transgenderism are mental illnesses, etc etc.

skeptical. It sounds like too much of a self serving story. The republican party was arguably worse in the 80s with like the schlafly and helms types.

[Obama24]

I don't think suburbs in the traditional 1950s-2000s sense really exist anymore. You more increasingly have urban areas and non-urban areas. For example, I live in New York City. The one area that is non-urban votes more Republican than the rest. You can kind of equate what once would be called suburbs with rural areas in terms of voting and culture.

btw, I don't mean the term 'urban' as a dog whistle but more in the sense of 'if you need a car to get around, it's not urban.'

[All Along The Watchtower]

Controlling for race

Why would you even try to do that if you wanted to understand this country?

[freepcrusher]

Controlling for race

Why would you even try to do that if you wanted to understand this country?

because it varies from place to place. Obviously it matters a lot in places like Gwinnett county, GA. In a place like Dupage county - it doesn't explain as much. Dupage is only 65% white but when you consider that the minorities are mostly hispanic and asian, a lot of them can't vote, and when they do are not nearly as dem as blacks - race isn't the main factor there.

[Del Tachi]

For comparison, DuPage County was almost 90% non-Hispanic White in 1980.  So it's both.  Yes, college-educated White voters have trended towards the Democrats (and massively so in certain suburbs around A-tier cities like Chicago, Philadelphia, etc.) but these same suburbs have also been getting more diverse.  I expect Democrats didn't outright win the White vote in places like DuPage, IL or Montgomery, PA until 2016 although those trends have been present since the late-80s/90s.  Clinton, Gore and Kerry actually managed to do very well in suburbs. 

I would note, too, that 1) college educated suburbs are much more college educated than they were 30-40 years ago, matching the overall trend towards higher educational attainment nationally.  The number of post-baccalaureate degree holders is also growing faster than the number of baccalaureate degree holders.  30 years ago, it would not be difficult to find a state school grad and his non-degreed wife living in Evanston or Winnetka...that's probably not very true anymore.  2) White college grads have gotten substantially more secular over the past 30-40 years.   

[DrScholl]

A number of more conservative voters have sold their houses and moved away from suburban areas to states like Florida. Second, a lot of suburban voters weren't extremely conservative socially and voted Republican for economic reasons. Then you have the factor that suburbs are not just privileged places anymore and draw in people who are simply looking for housing of any kind.

[Torie]

Muon2 lives in DuPage and might like to comment.

[Bismarck]

A lot of suburbanites want to vote for the party of mainstream stability. That used to be the GOP but increasingly is the democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

For comparison, DuPage County was almost 90% non-Hispanic White in 1980.  So it's both.  Yes, college-educated White voters have trended towards the Democrats (and massively so in certain suburbs around A-tier cities like Chicago, Philadelphia, etc.) but these same suburbs have also been getting more diverse.  I expect Democrats didn't outright win the White vote in places like DuPage, IL or Montgomery, PA until 2016 although those trends have been present since the late-80s/90s.  Clinton, Gore and Kerry actually managed to do very well in suburbs. 

I would note, too, that 1) college educated suburbs are much more college educated than they were 30-40 years ago, matching the overall trend towards higher educational attainment nationally.  The number of post-baccalaureate degree holders is also growing faster than the number of baccalaureate degree holders.  30 years ago, it would not be difficult to find a state school grad and his non-degreed wife living in Evanston or Winnetka...that's probably not very true anymore.  2) White college grads have gotten substantially more secular over the past 30-40 years.   

A potentially underrated part of this is how much more female college grads are today.  As late as the 1990's, there were still downstream effects of the GI bill playing out. 

[freepcrusher]

I would note, too, that 1) college educated suburbs are much more college educated than they were 30-40 years ago, matching the overall trend towards higher educational attainment nationally.  The number of post-baccalaureate degree holders is also growing faster than the number of baccalaureate degree holders.  30 years ago, it would not be difficult to find a state school grad and his non-degreed wife living in Evanston or Winnetka...that's probably not very true anymore.  2) White college grads have gotten substantially more secular over the past 30-40 years.   

well this begs the question - have white college grads themselves changed? Because if they voted as they once did - DuPage would probably vote republican. Is it possible that white college grads have gone from looking like this:
https://i.scdn.co/image/ab67616d0000b2732fdfd160d2803cbad91842c3


to this?
https://i.cdn.tbs.com/assets/images/big-bang-theory-628x353.jpg