India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

Urban Karnataka turnout fell while rural Karnataka turnout surged.  The part of rural Karnataka that voted in Phase 2 is the INC-JD(S) battlegrounds.  Back in 2019, the INC-JD(S) alliance did not work on the ground with INC voters not turning out for JD(S) candidates and vice versa.  The turnout surge in these areas does show that the BJP-JD(S) alliance is working on the ground.

[jaichind]

Out of the 543 seats, only 325 incumbents are running.  9 out of the 325 are running in a different seat than they were elected in 2019.  And 2 incumbents are running against each other due to redistricting.  I expect around 85%-90% of incumbents to win re-election which means we are looking at around 50% turnover rate for MPs where around 50% of those elected will be new MPs (although many of them will have been elected before.)

[jaichind]

One thing that is different about this campaign so far from other campaigns in the Modi era is that Modi seems to be letting INC dictate the narrative.  Modi right now is mostly reacting to the INC manifesto and claims about what the INC stands for as opposed to defining a narrative on why the BJP should be re-elected.  This is not a good idea for Modi and is illogical given his claims about NDA winning 400 seats.  Meaning, if the NDA wins 400 seats then who cares what is in the INC manifesto or what INC stands for?

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/arvinder-singh-lovely-resigns-as-delhi-congress-chief-report-101714279054552.html

"Arvinder Singh Lovely resigns as Delhi Congress chief, cites alliance with AAP"

Head of Delhi INC resigns days ahead of voting in Delhi citing his opposition to AAP as one of the reasons for his resignation.    It is very likely BJP will sweep all 7 seats in Delhi again and this makes it even more likely.

[Logical]

An Indian friend told me that this was the most boring election he has gone through. There is no overarching theme or narrative, and the energy is pretty low. Even politically engaged people are barely talking about it he says.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatodayne.in/amp/assam/story/muslim-votes-will-split-due-to-caste-census-proposal-himanta-biswa-sarma-992822-2024-04-27

"Muslim votes will split due to caste census proposal: Himanta Biswa Sarma"

The INC has been pushing a caste census to turn politics into Hindu forward vs backward as a way to counter the BJP's Hindu consolidation strategy.   BJP Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma counters what seems to be a Muslim caste census to turn Muslims of backward backgrounds against the Muslim political establishment.    So it will be INC trying to target Hindus backwards while BJP will target Muslims backwards. 

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha/story/karnataka-forms-sit-jds-mp-prajwal-revannas-distorted-video-case-2532543-2024-04-27

"Deve Gowda's grandson flees country amid probe into 'obscene videos': Sources"

Sitting JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna grandson of JD CM Deve Gowda and current JD(S) supremo seems to have escaped to Germany over probes into sexual assault a day after elections were held in his seat.

Video of him being involved in sexual assault has been circulating for a while but the INC Karnataka government waited for elections in his seat to be over to start a probe into these accusations.  The JD(S) says these videos are fake.    In response, it seems the JD(S) MP and likely winner of his re-election has escaped to Germany.  

I do want to give the INC Karnataka government credit for waiting until voting is over before taking legal action.  This is opposed to the BJP which seems to take action during the campaign against political opponents.

[jaichind]

https://www.opindia.com/2024/04/love-jihad-sabir-khan-abducts-rapes-a-hindu-girl-for-3-years/

"Love Jihad in Gwalior: Married Sabir Khan blackmailed a Hindu girl, abducted and held hostage for 3 years, rapes and forced fed beef, pressurised to convert to Islam"

In a Love Jihad case from Gwalior in Madhya Pradesh, a married man named Sabir Khan is accused of blackmailing a Hindu girl to have a friendship with him after his marriage and keeping her hostage for over three years. It is alleged that he blackmailed the victim whenever she tried to run away to her house and threatened to implicate her brother and father by writing a “suicide note”. During her captivity, the accused Sabir Khan physically and sexually harassed her and did unnatural acts. It is further alleged that he forced her to eat beef and pressured her to convert to Islam.

Well, if this case is true, then however rare, it fits all the Love Jihad narrative the BJP would want to push.  This case is a dream come true for the BJP as far as PR is concerned.

[jaichind]

NDTV reports that Rajasthan betting markets now have it at BJP 18 INDIA 7 (5 INC, 1 RLP, 1 CPM) in Rajasthan.  I have it at BJP 19 INDIA 6 but the CPM one was a surprise to me.

https://twitter.com/pareek12sushant/status/1784588408050057414

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha/story/karnataka-forms-sit-jds-mp-prajwal-revannas-distorted-video-case-2532543-2024-04-27

"Deve Gowda's grandson flees country amid probe into 'obscene videos': Sources"

Sitting JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna grandson of JD CM Deve Gowda and current JD(S) supremo seems to have escaped to Germany over probes into sexual assault a day after elections were held in his seat.

Video of him being involved in sexual assault has been circulating for a while but the INC Karnataka government waited for elections in his seat to be over to start a probe into these accusations.  The JD(S) says these videos are fake.    In response, it seems the JD(S) MP and likely winner of his re-election has escaped to Germany.  

I do want to give the INC Karnataka government credit for waiting until voting is over before taking legal action.  This is opposed to the BJP which seems to take action during the campaign against political opponents.

It seems the various sex videos of JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna have him sexually assaulting hundreds of women.  His camp and JD(S) claim these videos are fake but his escaping to Germany does not make him look good.

Now INC is circulating pictures of Prajwal Revanna  with Modi visiting his grandfather JD CM Deve Gowda and current JD(S) supremo just to try to link him to Modi.

[jaichind]

I have no idea how we got to have so many videos of  JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna sexually assaulting hundreds of women.  I suspect it is something like the Hunter Biden setup or perhaps he put them on a public cloud somewhere and someone somehow broke his password.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/lok-sabha-election-after-surat-congress-indore-candidate-akshay-bam-withdraws-nomination-101714374064613.html

"After Surat, Congress' Indore candidate drops out of poll race, 'welcomed' by BJP"

In MP's Indore seat, the INC candidate withdraws and will join BJP.   

I am not clear what is the point of doing this.  BJP has not Indore since 1984 and is certain to win by a landslide.  Most likely this is a private deal between the INC candidate and the BJP candidate because stuff like this does not make the BJP look that great although it looks bad for INC as well.

[jaichind]

This time around Punjab will be the most fun.  It will be a 4-way battle where in most seats all 4 parties (AAP, INC, SAD, BJP) will have quality candidates, and in a few seats, it will be a 5-way candidate where pro-Khalistan SAD(A) will have quality candidates.

In Khadoor Sahib SAD(A) will back  Amritpal Singh who was the radical pro-Khalistan preacher who provoked violence against the state government and was on the run for 35 days before being arrested in 2023.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/others/sad-a-to-support-radical-preacher-amritpal-from-khadoor-sahib-seat-101714332443172.html

"SAD (A) to support radical preacher Amritpal from Khadoor Sahib seat"

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/prajwal-revanna-sex-scandal-bjp-under-fire-as-letter-shows-warning-about-jd-s-leader-went-unheeded-101714370783047.html

"Prajwal Revanna ‘sex scandal’: BJP under fire as letter shows ‘brahmastra’ warning about JD(S) leader went unheeded"

It seems the local Karnataka BJP was well aware of the issues of sexual assault with JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna and was warning the BJP high command not to go ahead with an alliance with JD(S).   It seems those warnings were ignored.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha/rift-in-india-bloc-comes-to-the-fore-in-bengal-before-third-phase-of-lok-sabha-polls/article68121662.ece

"Rift in INDIA bloc comes to the fore in Bengal before third phase of Lok Sabha polls"

"Mamata Banerjee has been saying there is no INDIA tie-up in West Bengal and the Left parties and the Congress have been working for the BJP"

This is on purpose.  The idea is to get Left Front-INC candidate to cut into the anti-AITC vote that would otherwise go to BJP.

[jaichind]

SHS (to be fair SHS(U)) marching with Communists. 
https://twitter.com/ShivSenaUBT_/status/1784887587141792164

[jaichind]

Concentration of Mulsim population UP.  In Western UP it is mostly about Hindu vs Mulsim consolidation while in areas outside of that, it is BJP Hindu consolidation versus Forward vs Backward narratives.  

Often BJP does worse in Eastern UP due to the Muslim issue being less salient.  In a Modi wave election, it does not matter as it will be BJP sweeping all.

[jaichind]

In AP, former TDP CM and TDP leader N. Chandrababu Naidu seems to be going off-script.

First, he and JSP leader  Pawan Kalyan had an event to release the TDP-JSP-BJP manifesto for AP assembly elections but note how Modi's picture is missing and BJP leaders are missing from the photo op.



Then Naidu tweeted that his government will create a 4% reservation for Muslims which is exactly what the BJP is accusing the INC of planning to do.  Here the BJP ally is opening saying what the BJP claims the INC will plan to do in secret.
https://twitter.com/ncbn/status/1784577795034845267

This is fairly normal in NDA politics.  Some NDA parties (JD(U) in Bihar, TDP in AP, and AGP in Assam) do have some historical Muslim voters and the BJP turns a blind eye to them appealing to Muslims in seats that the BJP has no chance anyway.  It is a testimony of BJP political flexibility but not of BJP's intellectual honesty.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/lok-sabha-election-after-surat-congress-indore-candidate-akshay-bam-withdraws-nomination-101714374064613.html

"After Surat, Congress' Indore candidate drops out of poll race, 'welcomed' by BJP"

In MP's Indore seat, the INC candidate withdraws and will join BJP.   

I am not clear what is the point of doing this.  BJP has not Indore since 1984 and is certain to win by a landslide.  Most likely this is a private deal between the INC candidate and the BJP candidate because stuff like this does not make the BJP look that great although it looks bad for INC as well.

https://www.aajtak.in/india/news/story/akshay-kanti-bam-indore-withdraws-nomination-joins-bjp-ipc-section-307-17-old-case-congress-jeetu-patwari-ntc-1934092-2024-04-30

According to INC, the INC candidate for Indore had a 17-year-old murder charge against him, and the BJP threatened to reopen that case for him to drop out and join the BJP.

[jaichind]

For the  JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna sexual assault scandal it seems what took place was that due to the power of his political family, many people, including many women would visit his house asking for help on something or another.  And in those situations, JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna would sexually assault these women and film himself in the act.

At least in Northern Hindi heartland belt areas, this is pretty common.  It is also common for a lot of fake sexual assault claims to be made to blackmail various powerful men.  I think both trends reinforce each other.    At least in the North being accused of sexual assault is no big deal.  There have been many cases of candidates running for office while being under investigation for many counts of sexual assault and would still get elected with ease.

This is not so easy in the South and will hit the BJP-JD(S) alliance in the rest of Karnataka where voting is yet to come.   Of course, what is different here is  JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna decided to film himself in the act which is truly moronic.  He seems to be taking a page from Hunter Biden which is what led to this big blowup since now these 2000+ videos of  JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna in the act are all over social media.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/prajwal-revanna-sex-scandal-prajwal-revannas-ex-driver-bjp-leader-accuse-each-other-of-leaking-videos-5556892

"Prajwal Revanna's Ex Driver, BJP Leader Accuse Each Other Of Leaking Videos"

JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna was suspended by JD(S) as the scandal continued to grow.  It seems the 2000+ videos of JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna's sexual assaults came from his former driver who somehow got a hold of these videos.     It seems he then gave those tapes to a BJP leader who ran against JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna's father last year in the Karnataka assembly elections and now both people claim that the other person was the one who leaked these videos to social media.

The BJP leader claimed that the former driver then gave those videos to INC who released them to social media while the former drive said he did no such thing an that the BJP leader in question was the only person he gave these videos to.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha/among-muslims-in-maharashtra-shiv-sena-ubt-emerges-as-surprise-right-choice-in-tough-field-analysis/article68124198.ece

"Among Muslims in Maharashtra, Shiv Sena (UBT) emerges as surprise “Right choice” in tough field | Analysis"

I think Uddhav Thackeray is shifting SHS(U) to the Hindutava vision of his grandfather Prabodhankar Thackeray and the early days of Bal Thackeray.  Remember, in the early 1980s, SHS actually worked and allied with IUML against INC.  It was when the BJP showed up in Maharastra in the mid-1980s which threatened to capture the Maratha Hindu vote from SHS did SHS shifted toward a more BJP-like vision of Hindutav to ensure their base was not lost to the BJP.

[jaichind]

This entire Prajwal Revanna affair also seems to have revealed internal fractures in the H. D. Deve Gowda clan. 

H. D. Deve Gowda was the JD CM of Karnataka before becoming JD PM of India. He later founded JD(S) which is a de facto family enterprise.

H. D. Deve Gowda's younger son, H. D. Kumaraswamy, became Karnataka CM twice,  once in an alliance with BJP and once in an alliance with INC.  This is surprising since his older son, H. D. Revanna, is also politically active. 

Prajwal Revanna is the son of  H. D. Revanna and was elected MP in 2019 and seems likely to win re-election in 2024.  Nikhil Kumaraswamy is the son of  H. D. Kumaraswamy and has failed several times to get elected MP or MLA.  There is a clear fear in  H. D. Kumaraswamy that Prajwal Revanna will take over the party after he moves on as opposed to his son Nikhil Kumaraswamy.

As a result H. D. Kumaraswamy's response to these sex assault allegation scandals around Prajwal Revanna seems almost happy it took place and indicated that he will trust the INC Karnataka government investigation results.  H. D. Kumaraswamy's response seems as much as insolating JD(S) from the scandal and even hoping Prajwal Revanna's political career crash and burn paving the way for his son Nikhil Kumaraswamy.

Of course, H. D. Kumaraswamy has to understand that once the 91-year-old  H. D. Deve Gowda moves on JD(S) will likely go into slow decline and this scandal could make that decline rapid so he and his son cannot really benefit from this on the long run.

[jaichind]

BJP drops Kaiserganj MP due to sexual harassment complaints but will field his son instead

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatodayne.in/national/video/bjp-will-not-remove-reservations-will-not-allow-congress-to-do-so-says-amit-shah-996228-2024-05-01

"BJP will not remove reservations, will not allow Congress to do so, says Amit Shah"

Reservations, especially for OBCs, are coming up as a key issue between the BJP and the opposition.

INC and allies have been pushing the Modi goal of NDA at 400 seats as part of a plan to change the Constitution to remove reservations for OBC and Dalits.  The BJP counters that they have no such plans and that it is INC that wants to create reservations for Muslims using the OBC quota.

At this stage this has become both sides vowing never to remove reservations and that the other side will.