Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[Јas]

How much would it actually help Fianna Fáil if they changed leader now?

Nobody knows - too many variables.

[Insula Dei]

That's not a day too early.

It would be a shame though if we didn't get to see a PC 1993-style collapse of FF now.

[Kevinstat]

That's not a day too early.

It would be a shame though if we didn't get to see a PC 1993-style collapse of FF now.

Kim Campbell was supposed to be more popular than Brian Mulroney when she took over as PC leader and PM, and that was only 4 1/2 and 4 months, respectively, before the election.  She may have been clearly poised to lead the PCs into the next election for longer than that, however.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Let fail fest 2011 begin!

[Oakvale]

There's apparently a poll out tomorrow showing FF at 8%, which was great until I realised it's apparently a Sunday Independent poll, and those are lousy.

[Verily]

LOL. Odds on the first poll to show Fianna Fail behind the Greens?

/I kid. Sort of.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There's apparently a poll out tomorrow showing FF at 8%, which was great until I realised it's apparently a Sunday Independent poll, and those are lousy.

That would still be at least 9% too high. But yeah, Quantum makes ARG look like the epitome of professional polling.

[You kip if you want to...]

Any chance that Labour will finish first? Either way, it'll be a FG-Lab grand coalition anyway, right?

[Kevinstat]

Any chance that Labour will finish first?

Looks increasingly unlikely.

Either way, it'll be a FG-Lab grand coalition anyway, right?

I don't know.  While at first glance it might not seem that how other parties' support breaks down should greatly effect what percentage of the first preference vote a party (for argument's sake, let's say it's Fine Gael ) would need to win a majority of seats, or a large enough minority to form a non-coalition government with the support of Independents (of which there might be a larger number elected this year than in 2007), in reality a scattered non-Fine Gael vote between Labour, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and several Independents (perhaps with two or more Independents who do well enough to keep their deposits in several constituencies) and the fact that Fine Gael should do well with most transfers other than Sinn Féin transfers, and not as bad as usual even there could all allow Fine Gael to earn a result that would allow them to govern without entering in a coalition with another party even with a first preference vote in the upper 30s.  That is higher than the 35% they got in the last RedC poll on 7 January, and much higher than the 30% they got in the MRBI poll on 16 December, but they seem to be on an upswing and some of the 12% for Independent/Other candidates in the RedC poll should probably be taken off both the numerator and (more relevantly here) the denominator if you're trying to forcast nationwide first-preference results from that poll.

While perhaps not likely, I don't think a Fine Gael majority government, let alone merely a Fine Gael minority government that has the potential to at least get off the ground is out of the question.  Any goverment that doesn't include Fine Gael would seem to be though, although I think some here were talking about the possitility of a Labour-? minority or coalition government without Fine Gael when they were polling in first place and gaining.

[Јas]

It would be a shame though if we didn't get to see a PC 1993-style collapse of FF now.

Arguably, we have/will.

PC fell from 43% of the vote in '88, to 16% in 1993.
FF were at 42% in the 2007 election, and are now polling in the mid-teens.

[Јas]

[RodPresident]

If I were Irish, my first preferences would go to progressives (Sinn Fein, ULA). Tactically, I would give a preference for FF and after, for Labour. I want to defeat FG-Lab that would be to change only the faces of problem and not to solute the problem.

[Јas]

Details on the first leadership election for Fianna Fáil since 1992 are out.

Nominations close at 1p.m. tomorrow.
The vote will be held at a parliamentary party meeting on Wednesday at 2p.m.
Four declared candidates so far.



Micheál Martin
The favourite. His actions effectively forced the confidence motion during the week – he’s the only contender who made a public effort at bringing about a change of leadership.

50. A secondary level history teacher by profession, he’s been a TD for Cork SC since 1989. In cabinet since 1997, with responsibility for 4 departments since then (Education; Health; Enterprise; and Foreign Affairs). Was the Minister that introduced the smoking ban (first national such ban); also the Minister for Foreign Affairs during both Lisbon referenda.

Not the most popular figure within the parliamentary party, but his challenge gives him credibility. Also has the benefit of pretty much taking as given the support of the Cork contingent of FF TDs.


Brian Lenihan
51. A barrister by profession, he’s been TD for Dublin W since 1996 (winning a very closely fought by-election brought about by the death of his father). Member of the Government since 2007, holding the Justice (2007-08) and Finance (2008-) portfolios.

Built up a lot of credibility with the party with what was deemed a fairly confident handling of the Finance portfolio despite our financial and fiscal crises. With the entry of the IMF though, his standing took a slide.  

Part of the Lenihan dynasty (his father was Tánaiste) there are at least 2 votes he can count on – his brother Conor and his aunt Mary. Diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in late 2009, this seemed to put question marks both over his future ambition and indeed his continued role as Finance Minister – but it seems he has largely overcome the health scare.

Took a publicly equivocal view on the leadership question in recent days, before backing Cowen – prompting certain backbenchers to publicly berate his hypocrisy in privately taking Cowen down, but publicly backing him.


Mary Hanafin
51. An Irish and History secondary school teacher before becoming TD for Dún Laoghaire in 1997. Became Chief Whip in 2002, followed by stints in 4 Departments (Education; Social & Family Affairs; Enterprise; Tourism & Culture) and just the other day has also taken on acting responsibility for Enterprise again.

Adjudged by many in the party as unfairly demoted by Cowen, twice. Her standing hasn’t though been helped by the recent leadership crisis. In particular, the manner in which she failed to publicly declare her position until after the vote (despite assertions that she would make her position known beforehand) was viewed as fairly cynical.


Éamon Ó Cuív
60, TD for Galway W since 1992, became a Government Minister in 2002. Spent 8 years as Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, before becoming Minister for Social Protection last year and now doubling up as acting Minister for Defence.

His FF pedigree is as strong as they come – he’s the grandson of party founder Éamon de Valera. The only one of the four contenders that can be seen as an absolute Cowen loyalist.

[Harry Hayfield]

Breaking News: The Irish Green party withdraw from coaltion

[You kip if you want to...]

Breaking News: The Irish Green party withdraw from coaltion

Anti-climax

[Tetro Kornbluth]

As the folks on the other board said, the farce has just got farcier.

As for the FF leadership, I hope Hannafin wins it (though I´ll be surprised now if Martin doesn´t) only on the grounds that we could then see the leader of FF lose her seat at the election. I don´t think Lenihan is that interested and the other two are, alas, very safe even if FF go down to single digits seats.

[Keystone Phil]

So when is the snap election likely to be held?

[Hash]

So when is the snap election likely to be held?

An election has already been called. For March 11.

[Kevinstat]

So when is the snap election likely to be held?

An election has already been called. For March 11.

No it hasn't.  An election being definitively called (as opposed to it being stated by someone acting as having authority or speaking on behalf of those with authority when the election will be) in a constitutional monarchy or a parliamentary republic like Ireland is, at least in general I believe, synonymous with the disolution of the body for which the election is being called for.  As the Dáil has not been dissolved yet, and the election cannot be more than 30 days after the dissolution, there is still the opportunity, which the opposition parties (now including the Greens) seem likely to take advantage of, for the Dáil to be disolved before February 9 which would force the election to be held before March 11.

[Keystone Phil]

So when is the snap election likely to be held?

An election has already been called. For March 11.

Before you move into condescending mode, you might want to read what I read - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12261077

The Green Party in the Republic of Ireland is to decide today whether to stay in the coalition government.

If the party pulls out, it will force an election next month - earlier than a planned poll on 11 March.

[ilikeverin]

So when is the snap election likely to be held?

An election has already been called. For March 11.

Before you move into condescending mode, you might want to read what I read - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12261077

The Green Party in the Republic of Ireland is to decide today whether to stay in the coalition government.

If the party pulls out, it will force an election next month - earlier than a planned poll on 11 March.

Indeed, a new date will likely have to be scheduled.

[Хahar 🤔]

Wouldn't it be fascinating if this happened?

[You kip if you want to...]

Wouldn't it be fascinating if this happened?

So... Cowen would become leader again, by default?

[Хahar 🤔]

Wouldn't it be fascinating if this happened?

So... Cowen would become leader again, by default?

One would assume so, yes.

[Kevinstat]

Wouldn't it be fascinating if this happened?

So... Cowen would become leader again, by default?

One would assume so, yes.

Would Cowen have a chance in this case after the election to hold a leaderhip election of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party that (a) would be before the election of the Ceann Comhairle for the next (the 31st) Dáil and (b) that Seamus Kirk, as Ceann Comhairle, would be inelligable to vote in?  Also, could the existing Fianna Fáil Senators vote before the new Senators are elected.  Or are Senators not considered members of the "parliamentary party" in such elections?  (i.e. can they not vote for party leader?)

Also, would the new Dáil be able to elect a new Ceann Comhairle even if Kirk wants to remain in that position?  Is the "standing down" that Rory O'Hanlon did in 2007 automatic, just that a Ceann Comhairle can be "reelected" to that position right after standing down?  I believe the answer to both those questions is "yes."  I also assume, though, that Cowen, as 1/2 the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party if Senators are not included (or their aren't any Fianna Fáil Senators by that point), would be able to block any challenge to his leadership for the run of the 31st Dáil, if he was able to unanimously elect himself in a brief interval before that.