So, what reasonably bad things could happen to the Romney campaign?

[Simfan34]

A lot of you are throwing around the word "collapse" right now, what does this entail necessarily? A collapse in polling or a more thorough demise of the campaign?

[old timey villain]

Oh I doubt there will be a true collapse. Political campaigns are so advanced now that complete collapses just don't happen. The closest I think anyone has come in the past few cycles is McCain in 2008, but he still did fairly respectably.

I'm going to give Romney the benefit of the doubt and assume that there's not anything particularly devastating in those tax returns, but there's obviously something bad. If he reveals it, or the info is dug up, it has the potential to derail at least the message of the Romney campaign. Whatever it is, it won't look good, people will be upset, and the campaign will have to spend precious time doing damage control. This will give Obama the chance to define Romney early, before he can do it on his own terms, and he may never be able to full recover from whatever scandal arises.

If you have to stop to tie your shoe in a sprint, you'll never catch up to the other runners.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The two quasi-plausible things that I could see causing the complete collapse of the Romney campaign: 1) Bain-related illegalities come out that are so unquestionable and blatant than even a majority of the Republicans agree that charges against Romney are justified, or 2) Romney's tax records are leaked or released and there is something in them so damaging, such as paying 0 tax for the previous 10 years, that his polling drops through the floor and stays there.

I don't think either of these are likely in any way, shape, or form, but they're the most plausible causes of a complete Romney collapse I can come up with.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Oh I doubt there will be a true collapse. Political campaigns are so advanced now that complete collapses just don't happen. The closest I think anyone has come in the past few cycles is McCain in 2008, but he still did fairly respectably.

McCain ended up doing fairly well considering how badly his campaign collapsed in September 2008. Prior to that, he had been gaining ground on Obama for months, the "celebrity" meme was gaining traction, and the momentum of the campaign was clearly in his favor. After the onset of the financial crisis in September, Sarah Palin's Couric interview meltdown, and his lackluster performance in the first two debates, the race went from being even/slight McCain advantage to lean/strong Obama. By the time he got around to picking up the pieces in October, it was too late.

The John Kerry campaign offers an interesting comparison: there was no one event that did him in. Contrary to popular belief, the Swiftboat Ad only ran a few times in a few markets, but the media picked it up and ran with it. An aggressive response from the Kerry campaign could have caused it to backfire massively on Bush, but Kerry was too timid. It contributed to building a narrative that Kerry was a weak, out-of-touch elitist, which his windsurfing, multiple houses (sound familiar?), and stilted, outdated speaking style all contributed to, and which he was ultimately unable to overcome.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Romney does well when he is pushed tightly into a corner. I believe Romney will be able to take the pressure Obama's currently putting on him and spin it right back at the president.

Obama needs to be carefuly that he doesn't over-pummel Romney on the Bain stuff. He risks making himself seem anti-capitalist.

[RJ]

Talk about speculation on speculation here: the only way there could be a "collapse" is if we find something really damning out about one of these candidates or their backgrounds. There are many examples of this and for diverting an arguement's sake I'm not going to say what they could be.

Since Obama has been in office for almost 4 years I'd say it's less likely there's something new in his past that would hurt him but that primary was so bitter that it appears its almost as likely Romney's campaign has nothing to worry about since he survived that.

[RJ]

Romney does well when he is pushed tightly into a corner. I believe Romney will be able to take the pressure Obama's currently putting on him and spin it right back at the president.

Not trying to bust your chops but in 2008 when his campaign ran into trouble he could never recover. He pumped boatloads of money int New Hampshire and Iowa but was met with failure and never got back on track.

[pbrower2a]

He has something to hide, and he is defensive about it.  That is a huge problem. Until he can re-create trust he is going to go from contention to the fringe of contention to completely out of it.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Romney does well when he is pushed tightly into a corner. I believe Romney will be able to take the pressure Obama's currently putting on him and spin it right back at the president.

Not trying to bust your chops but in 2008 when his campaign ran into trouble he could never recover. He pumped boatloads of money int New Hampshire and Iowa but was met with failure and never got back on track.

Yes, but that was Mitt 2.4. I'm talking about Mitt 8.3.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Romney does well when he is pushed tightly into a corner. I believe Romney will be able to take the pressure Obama's currently putting on him and spin it right back at the president.

Not trying to bust your chops but in 2008 when his campaign ran into trouble he could never recover. He pumped boatloads of money int New Hampshire and Iowa but was met with failure and never got back on track.

Yes, but that was Mitt 2.4. I'm talking about Mitt 8.3.

Romney was able to overcome Santorum and Gingrich because 1) they were both terrible candidates and 2) he outspent them 4:1 or more. He might well be able to outspend Obama, but not by that much.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Romney's campaign should be toast by now, but the media keeps ignoring all the bad stuff. Why would the media stop now?

[technical support]

Wheres the tax returns. Lol...

[mondale84]

War in the Persian Gulf.

 Obama in a 45-state sweep against weak-on-defense Willard.

[morgieb]

Romney was proven to have been unethical or illegal with Bain.

Even then Romney will still probably 45%+.