-NH-SEN and CO-SEN are closer than NV-SEN.
-VT-SEN is closer than IA-SEN.
-Republicans flip four D-held House seats in New England (NH-1 & some combination of CT-5, ME-2, RI-2, CT-2, NH-2).
-Republicans flip two or three of IL-6/TX-28/GA-2/CA-25/CA-47.
-Tony Evers does only negligibly (~1%) worse than Gretchen Whitmer.
-Tim Walz fails to break 50%.
-Republicans win one of OR-GOV/RI-GOV/CT-GOV.
This doesn't make any sense at all unless you think Grassley is going to replicate his 2016 performance.
I'm not sure about it either. Welch will almost certainly break 60%, whereas I think it's likely that Grassley falls into the upper 50s this time. But anything can happen.
