Canada 2011 Official Thread

[cinyc]

What happened to the NDP ? They were at 20% not so far ago...

Beware of statistical noise.  Tracking polls have a lot of it.  There's not a ton of difference between 16% and 20% - unless the trend continues for a number of days.

[Хahar 🤔]

Though this article does not say so explicitly, it suggests that a Conservative parliamentary majority would be good for the Canadian left, bringing greater pressure to bear on the Liberal, New Democratic, and Green parties to unite in a merger 'formal and definitive' the way the various parties of the right eventually fused to form the Conservative Party after more than a decade of Liberal electoral dominance:

Defection, debate challenge may signal seismic shift in Canadian politics
 
By Randy Boswell, Postmedia News
March 31, 2011 4:26 PM

Erstwhile NDP candidate Ryan Dolby's defection to his Liberal rival in London, Ont., on Wednesday — an apparent bid to prevent vote-splitting and thus defeat the riding's Conservative candidate — was cheered by Liberals but has prompted accusations of betrayal from the jilted NDP and "coalition" from the Conservatives.

But on a day when Green party leader Elizabeth May also faced exclusion from the televised leaders' debate, and NDP leader Jack Layton was left out of a proposed one-on-one showdown between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, could Wednesday's campaign highlights portend a much deeper, even seismic shift in the Canadian political landscape?

Eight years after the creation of the Conservative Party of Canada ended a long and bruising battle to "unite the right" and set the stage for this election's potential Harper majority, Dolby's shocking bolt and the proposed narrowing of debate lineups — each storyline raising the spectre of consolidation on the centre-left side of the country's political spectrum — offered a glimpse of what may be the ultimate solution for so-called "progressive" Canadians aiming to halt the rise of the right.

The Liberals are on the centre of the Canadian political spectrum, so I don't know why anyone thinks the NDP and the Greens should merge them.  I would be in favour of a green-NDP merger, however. Even bring on the BQ, eventually.

The Greens are basically Liberals that don't like the color red, though.

[Hash]

I hate this sh**thole of a country.

Conservative   41.3%   +1.9   
Liberal   30.3%   -1.4   
NDP   16.0%   -0.1   
BQ   8.5%   NC   -
Green   3.7%   -0.7   

Seriously, how can people be so dumb? We're not Sicily.

[Frodo]

If Stephen Harper's Conservative Party wins a majority in Parliament this year, what would be the deadline by which he would have to call the next election?  2015?  2016? 

[Hash]

If Stephen Harper's Conservative Party wins a majority in Parliament this year, what would be the deadline by which he would have to call the next election?  2015?  2016? 

Presumably 2015, which would mean four years of reactionary incompetent far-right governance. But if the idiots who live here want that, maybe they deserve to be screwed over.

[Hatman 🍁]

I hate this sh**thole of a country.

Conservative   41.3%   +1.9   
Liberal   30.3%   -1.4   
NDP   16.0%   -0.1   
BQ   8.5%   NC   -
Green   3.7%   -0.7   

Seriously, how can people be so dumb? We're not Sicily.

Seriously. The NDP is not in majority territory, after all

[Hatman 🍁]

Wait... I don't live in Toronto, so I've never watched it, but does that mean CP24 is right wing in anyway?  Might explain why Rob Ford was elected.

Speaking of right wing networks, the countdown to Sun TV is approaching. The Sun keeps advertising it with "news" "articles".

[The Vorlon]

New Ekos poss also has Tories flirting with numbers  where a majority might begin.

we shall see, but Nanos and Ekos more or less agree on trend lines, both showing a modest shift to the Conservatives..

Ekos, as a technical note is more or less Rasmussen in that they use AVR technology.  Unlike Rasmussen they DO call cellphones and their dual frame sample actually seems to work pretty good

It is (likely) just a happy moment in time, but Dual Frame IVR seems to generate pretty decent probability samples (at least in Canada) at least for now.

[cinyc]

Nanos today (complete with equal opportunity hack labels opposite of what you're used to seeing on this website):

Conservatives	40.7%	-0.6
Liberals	29.4%	-0.9
NDP	16.9%	+0.9
Bloc Quebecois	8.0%	-0.5
Greens	4.0%	+0.3

   

Edited: I've successfully made my point.

---

Boardbashi comment: that's nice. Please don't do it again.

[The Vorlon]

The regional samples are all over the map.

Getting much closer in Ontario, but Conservatives surging just about everywhere else.

The top line numbers on Nanos and the trendlines basically agree with the Ekos polling.

Ekos is using a much larger sample of about 3000 or so and as a result the regional breakouts are less like to be statistical noise.

[minionofmidas]

Of course, the Greens are more "Where Moderate Heroes go to throw their votes away".

[Insula Dei]

So far I'm not really impressed with Harper's campaign. Iggy on the other hand is doing quite well, in my humble opinion. Layton's campaign seems pretty generic

[/ end of useless outsider observations]

[Verily]

Nanos today (complete with equal opportunity hack labels opposite of what you're used to seeing on this website):

Conservatives	40.7%	-0.6
LIEberals	29.4%	-0.9
Clueless Socialists	16.9%	+0.9
Separatists	8.0%	-0.5
Eco Weenies	4.0%	+0.3

   


Given sample sizes, it could just be noise but it is worth keeping an eye upon.

You don't even have to alter the name of the Conservatives for it to sum them up: CONservatives.

They've been called PurgaTories in shorthand hack descriptions in the past, among other things.  I figured this thread needed some equal opportunity hackery.

A few polls are showing a pretty steep Bloq decline.

I wouldn't trust national polls or polling on the Bloc. Plus, I don't see a reason for them to be suddenly dropping off. Would be interested if Leger or CROP does a poll of just Quebec, though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Everybody grow up please. No infractions will be dealt out as that isn't how I like doing things, but when I'm next online posts will be moderated and/or deleted unless already altered. Thanks/diolch.

[minionofmidas]

God, I don't hope anybody actually reported this? Megasilly.

[Bacon King]

God, I don't hope anybody actually reported this? Megasilly.

No, but I think Al's right in preemptively preventing this thread from revolving into a fest of partisan name-calling.

[cinyc]

God, I don't hope anybody actually reported this? Megasilly.

No, but I think Al's right in preemptively preventing this thread from revolving into a fest of partisan name-calling.

I've effectively made my point and edited my original post.  It already was a fest of partisan name-calling, largely against one party only - something I was getting sick of seeing.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Canadians split (54-46 in favor) on the idea of a NDP-Liberal coalition government: http://www.globalnews.ca/story.html?id=4545230

[cinyc]

Canadians split (54-46 in favor) on the idea of a NDP-Liberal coalition government: http://www.globalnews.ca/story.html?id=4545230

I'd like to see the question wording.  A NDP-Liberal coalition government is something that's totally different than a coalition that includes or needs the support of the Bloc Quebecois to govern - and I suspect you'd get different results depending on how the question is asked.

Note also that this was an Ipsos internet poll, with all the usual caveats about internet polling.

[Hash]

Somebody on the door to door run told me he was voting only because he was pissed with Harper's lies on coalitions. One of my profs as well.

[cinyc]

Somebody on the door to door run told me he was voting only because he was pissed with Harper's lies on coalitions. One of my profs as well.

The Ipsos Internet poll claims only 38% believe it when Iggy's says he would not form a coalition.  Well, at least to the extent an Internet poll is credible in the first place, I suppose.

[Hatman 🍁]

I saw that poll the other day in the paper. Needless to say, I was quite surprised. But, I mostly read the Sun (not out of choice, usually), and it tries to avoid anything that would support anybody but the Tories.

[MaxQue]

Good, the Conservative finally put a candidate list online. Even Green Party has one.

NDP is still waiting, I find that unprofessional.

[Hash]

I saw that poll the other day in the paper. Needless to say, I was quite surprised. But, I mostly read the Sun (not out of choice, usually), and it tries to avoid anything that would support anybody but the Tories.

I refuse to touch either of this city's newspapers. Metro and 24hours tend to of far more worth (as is The Fulcrum).

[MaxQue]

True. In Montreal, Metro and 24Heures are good newspapers (even if 24Heures belongs to Sun Media)

By the way, Sun Media, owner of Sun News (a canadian version of Fox News, which will be lauuched this month) wasn't conservative in the beginning. It belongs to Quebecor Media.

It was independantist, like the founder (the father of the current boss) was. He was quite respectable and liked by its employees, unlike the current one, which is some neoliberal slime.

(And I should stop dissing Quebecor, they own my Internet provider, too.)