2019 North Macedonia presidential election

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Today is the North Macedonian presidential election, the sixth from the country's independence in 1991.

Background

The current centre-left government is led by Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM, PES), the successor to the Communist Party that after the collapse of socialism adopted more moderate, democratic and pro-European policies. It also includes Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), an ethnic Albanian party and a few more minor parties.

The Albanians are a large minority in the country, composing about a quarter of the North Macedonian population, and they are also very important in politics, as the Albanian parties have participated in all governments since independence and they often are the "kingmakers", without whom the governments can't be formed.

The current government came to power in 2017., after more than 10 years of governments led by right-wing nationalist VMRO-DPMNE (Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity, EPP), which was often accused authoritarianism and many of the officials are now in jail for corruption. The former prime minister, Nikola Gruevski, recently fled to Viktor Orban's Hungary, where he was granted political asylum, escaping justice.

The current government's biggest achievement is the Prespa Agreement with Greece, changing the country's name from (Former Yugoslav) Republic of Macedonia to Republic of North Macedonia and removing the Greece's objection to the country's NATO and EU membership. The presidential elections are widely seen as a test of the government's popularity following the agreement.

Candidates

The incumbent president, Gjorge Ivanov (VMRO-DPMNE) can't run for a third term.

There are three candidates:

- Stevo Pendarovski, supported by the centre-left government coalition led by SDSM (Social Democratic Union of Macedonia). He also participated in the previous 2014. election, but he lost to Gjorge Ivanov.

- Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, supported by the right-wing nationalist opposition coalition led by VMRO-DPMNE (Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity). She is a university professor and the first female presidential candidate.

- Blerim Reka, supported by the Albanian opposition coalition of AA (Alliance for Albanians) and the Besa party.

Pendarovski and Reka are in favour of the Prespa Agreement, while Siljanovska-Dankova is against.

Electoral system

The system used by North Macedonia is a two-round popular vote system, but the second round is also held if the winning candidate wins over 50% of the votes, but less than 50% of eligible voters. Aditionally, if the turnout in the second round is less than 40%, the election is invalidated.

Polls

All polls show that no candidates will win in the first round, while in the second round as far as I can see most polls show a Pendarovski lead.

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Live results here:
https://rezultati.sec.mk/en-US/1/r

Currently Pendarovski leads by a small margin

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Pendarovski leads by only 126 votes after 95,22% polling places counted. Not that it would matter much because the second round will be held anyway.

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The strongest municipality for Davkova is Skopje suburb Ilinden - she won 68,44% there. The strongest municipality for Pendarovski is rural, ethnically "Turkish" Plasnica, where he won 71,03%. The strongest municipality for Reka is Želino - rural, ethnically Albanian and a Besa Movement stronghold, with 77,64%.

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Today it's the second round of the election.
Turnout at 13:00 CET is 20,53%, slightly larger than the first round's turnout at that time point (20,07%). The final turnout in the first round was 41,67%, slightly larger than the 40% threshold for the election to be valid.
The polls close at 19:00 CET.

https://rezultati.sec.mk/en-US/1/t3

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The turnout seems to surge mostly in the ethnic Macedonian municipalities, while in most of the ethnic Albanian municipalities turnout is stagnant or it's falling compared to the first round.
Probably the most dramatic example is Debar, where the turnout fell by 13,5% (from 36,31% to 22,85%), but in other ethnic Albanian municipalities it's not as bad. (The data are for turnout at 17:00 CET.)
Good news for Siljanovska-Davkova (VMRO-DPMNE, EPP)?

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The turnout data for 18:30 CET are out. It's 44,53% - over the 40% threshold, and a 4,7% surge compared to the first round.

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The first results are in. 3,10% of the polling places counted. Huge advantage for Pendarovski - but the results on such a small percentage of counted polling places mean almost nothing.
https://rezultati.sec.mk/en-US/1/r

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As more votes are being counted, the Pendarovski's margin is narrowing. But I still think he will win.

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Pendarovski still leads at 86,4% of the polling places counted. And he will definitely win.