Hash
Hashemite
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« on: May 05, 2019, 06:16:47 PM » |
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« edited: May 05, 2019, 09:04:17 PM by Hash »
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Presidential, legislative and municipal elections are being held in Panama today.
Panama is a presidential republic. The President, along with a Vice President, is directly elected to a five-year term by plurality voting (FPTP) and is not eligible for re-election for the two following terms. The unicameral National Assembly is made up of 71 members elected concurrently to the president in 26 single-member and 13 multi-member districts (which elect 45 members in total) known as electoral circuits (circuitos electorales). Members in single-member circuits are elected by FPTP, while members in multi-member circuits are elected by open list proportional representations. Seats in these circuits are attributed first by the Hare quota, then by half the quota (among remaining lists) and any remaining seats to the unelected candidate(s) regardless of party with the most votes. The province of Darién and the three provincial-level indigenous comarcas are guaranteed at least two seats (the comarca Emberá-Wounaan is included within Darién's two circuits, and the two circuits of the comarca Guna Yala includes two district-level indigenous comarcas in the provinces of Panamá and Darién).
Provinces are divided into 80 districts, which are equivalent to municipalities. Each district has a directly-elected mayor serving a five-year term, as well as a municipal council made up of the directly-elected representatives of corregimientos (subdivisions of districts) (in districts with less than five corregimientos, additional councillors are elected so that the council has 5 members). Mayors may be reelected for an unlimited number of consecutive terms.
No time for a long effortpost (which I dount anyone reads anyway). Modern Panamanian politics are pretty boring, and most of the politicians are pretty bland (in comparison to those in surrounding countries).
Since the US invasion and overthrow of Manuel Noriega in 1989, parties have alternated in power with no single party ever winning back-to-back elections - and that will continue this year. Until recently (2009), the two dominant parties in Panama were the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) and the Panameñista Party (PP).
The PRD was created in 1979 as the "official" party of Omar Torrijos' regime (modelled, in theory, to mimic the then-dominant Mexican PRI), later becoming the political front for Manuel Noriega's grotesquely criminal regime. Over the past four decades, the PRD has managed to remain a major party - it has more members than any other party (500,000 in 2018) - by successively metamorphosing itself, adapting its role and ideology to different political circumstances and environments, although it still claims to be "inspired by the principles of torrijismo" - a term which, like Peronism, can mean whatever you want it to mean. Torrijismo under Omar Torrijos (at least until the early 1970s) was similar to "left-leaning" reformist and nationalistic military regimes in Peru and Bolivia: expanding social programs, improving education, passing (mild) agrarian reforms and adopting new labour legislation. In so doing, Torrijos' PRD managed to co-opt much of the left (which was weak anyway), and as a legacy thereof the PRD is nominally a part of the Socialist International, which by definition means that it is not a socialist party. At the same time, it was under Torrijos that Panama became an offshore banking centre and tax haven, and he quickly moved away from 'left-wing' policies by the mid 1970s although nationalism and populism remained a key element of torrijismo. Since 1989, the PRD has won two elections (in 1994 with Ernesto Pérez Balladares and in 2004 with Omar Torrijos' son Martin Torrijos). In practice, the PRD is a broadly centre-right, pro-business and neoliberal party which does still occasionally pay lip service to more 'left-wing' issues.
The Panameñista Party, which has been known under various names throughout its history, is the oldest party, founded in the 1930s by the Arias brothers (Harmodio and Arnulfo), the leading figures of the 1931 coup which deposed the oligarchic regime (effectively a US protectorate) and ushered in a new period of nationalism, populism and military intervention. Its emblematic figure, and ideological reference, is Arnulfo Arias, who ran for president five times, was elected three times (1940, 1948-9 and 1968) and deposed three times by the military (his longest government lasted around 18 months). Arnulfo Arias was an impulsive, mercurial, narcissistic and fairly autocratic charismatic populist leader (and also pretty mentally unstable). Arnulfismo/panameñismo was, historically, right-wing nationalist and populist (and, at times, pretty nastily chauvinistic and racist) and anti-militarist (it was the main opposition to the Torrijos and Noriega regimes). The Panameñista Party does not have much in the way of ideology.
In 2009, supermarket magnate Ricardo Martinelli, leader of the right-wing Democratic Change (CD) party, was elected president in a landslide (60% of the vote), in coalition with the Panameñista Party. Martinelli was remarkably popular throughout his term - unlike his predecessor or his successor - thanks to strong economic growth (11% in 2011, 9.8% in 2012), increased FDI, major public investments in infrastructure (most notably the Panama City metro) and new trade agreements (the FTA with the US was finally ratified by the US Congress during his presidency, although it had been negotiated and signed under Martin Torrijos' administration). However, Martinelli's term was also characterized by serious accusations of authoritarianism and corruption.
The Panameñista Party, led by Martinelli's Vice President Juan Carlos Varela, broke off its alliance with the CD in 2011 (with Varela being dismissed for his cabinet position as foreign minister) and Varela became one of the main leaders of the opposition. Despite trailing in the polls, Varela surprisingly won the 2014 election with 39% of the vote against 31.4% for the CD's candidate, José Domingo Arias (whose running-mate was Martinelli's wife, despite that being blatantly unconstitutional) and 28.1% for PRD candidate Juan Carlos Navarro. However, Varela's PP did not win a majority in the legislature - it is, in fact, only the third largest party, and quickly lost control of the National Assembly to a CD-PRD coalition. The unfriendly legislature hampered Varela's term, and greatly limited his ability to pass important legislation (or his idea for a new constitution).
Juan Carlos Varela leaves office with low approval ratings, and his party is likely to perform very poorly. Varela has been largely ineffective as president, and has suffered from a relative economic slowdown (while Panama's 4% economic growth in 2018 was stronger than most other Latin American countries, growth has still slowed significantly from Martinelli's presidency and unemployment has increased from 4% to 6%) and corruption scandals (Odebrecht and the Panama Papers, as well as the negative repercussions of the Panama Papers on the country's reputation). In Panama, Odebrecht - whose contracts in Panama notably included the Panama City metro (whose second line was inaugurated by Varela this year) and the Tocumen airport expansion - paid at least $59 million in bribes between 2010 and 2014 (although its work in the country begins long before that, in 2005), implicating all three major parties. Martinelli's sons and three of his former cabinet ministers have been arrested in relation to the case, while Varela was forced to admit in 2017 that he received $700,000 from Odebrecht during his 2009 vice-presidential campaign but said they were 'legal contributions' rather than bribes (as if there's a difference in Latin America). He is also accused of having received money from the Brazilian construction giant in his 2014 presidential campaign. Varela has been harshly criticized for not cancelling state contracts with Odebrecht, even after it agreed to $220 million in reparations to the state and the cooperate with Panamanian judicial investigations. Meanwhile, Martinelli, who fled the country in 2015 to escape justice and eventually moved to Coral Gables, has been under investigation in several cases, most notably being accused of illegally spying on 150 prominent political opponents (politicians, journalists, trade unionists etc.) during his term. The Panamanian supreme court ordered his arrest in 2015, but he was only arrested by US authorities in Florida in June 2017 and finally extradited to Panama in 2018, where he is currently incarcerated. Martinelli's defence has been the usual Latin American playbook - it is all lies and a political persecution by his successor and arch-nemesis, President Juan Carlos Varela.
This election is pretty boring, and all major candidates are described as "centre-right and pro-business", with few major ideological differences among them. All promise to tackle corruption and most support some kind of constitutional reform/a new constitution. What may be most interesting is that independent candidates, for the first time, are attracting interest and significant support, a sign of general dissatisfaction with the current state of partisan politics. The candidates are:
Laurentino 'Nito' Cortizo (PRD-MOLIRENA): The frontrunner and the favourite to win the election, 'Nito' Cortizo is a businessman and former cabinet minister. He studied in Vermont and Texas, and worked in the construction and livestock industries before he was elected to the legislature in 1994, where he served ten years. Between 2004 and 2006, he was agricultural development minister during Martín Torrijos' presidency, before resigning 15 months later because of disagreements with the phytosanitary and zoosanitary clauses of the FTA with the US he believed would harm Panama’s agricultural sector. In an election in which corruption is the top issue, he benefits from his lack of personal scandals (even though the PRD is not entirely clean itself, and he's been criticized for his association with corrupt members of his party, like PRD president Benicio Robinson). One of his top priorities is to reduce inequalities and poverty, a challenge which he calls the "sixth frontier" (a reference to Omar Torrijos' "fifth frontier", to gain control over the canal and Canal Zone). He promises good government (to 'save' the country from the 'lost decade' of maladministration), rule of law, a competitive economy to create jobs, fighting poverty and inequality and better education. He has taken a tough line on corruption, saying that no one can be untouchable and that Odebrecht's corruption cannot be forgiven. Cortizo supports passing constitutional reforms, focusing on the three branches of government, through the legislature (and later approved by referendum).
Rómulo Roux (CD-Alianza): Roux is a lawyer who held multiple positions during Ricardo Martinelli's presidency: first as head of the Canal authority, later as minister of canal affairs (2009-2012) and finally as foreign minister (2012-2013). In January 2018, Roux won the CD's party presidency, defeating Martinelli (leader of the party since its creation), but because of Martinelli's power and popularity within the party, he has needed to keep him at his side as a political ally. Roux considered adding Martinelli as his running-mate (even though that'd be unconstitutional), although Martinelli declined and instead announced his candidacies for mayor of Panama City and deputy for circuit 8-8 (despite being in jail). The electoral tribunal invalidated Martinelli's candidacies, not because he was in jail but rather because he didn't fulfill residency requirements, having 'moved back' to Panama only in 2018. From jail, Martinelli has called on his supporters to back his suplentes (alternates) in both these races. Martinelli is both an asset and a weakness for Roux's candidacy - Martinelli retains a significant base of support because of nostalgia for the strong economic growth, low unemployment, better credit ratings and large public works projects during his presidency, and Roux's campaign promises to bring back the "good times" (his slogan is lo bueno vuelve, or "the good returns"); but Martinelli is, of course, also associated with the widespread corruption and authoritarianism of his presidency. Roux has had an investigation against him suspended while he runs for office. Roux promises economic reactivation, job creation (400,000 new jobs), tax cuts, law-and-order security policies, higher spending on education and a constitutional reform through the legislature.
José Isabel Blandón (Panameñista-P. Popular): Blandón, the mayor of Panama City since 2014, is the ruling party's candidate. In his 20s, Blandón protested against the Noriega regime (and was briefly detained) and convinced his father, an advisor to Noriega, to defect and testify against him in the US. He served three terms in the National Assembly (1999-2014) before being elected mayor of the capital in the last election, defeating the CD incumbent. He has a good record as mayor, introducing several innovative infrastructure reforms, but many of his public works projects are unfinished and he awarded a $100 million contract to Odebrecht in full knowledge of the accusations against it. Blandón has tried to distance himself as much as possible from the unpopular Varela, but languishing in third (or worse) in the polls he has had little success. He supports a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution which would reduce the size of the legislature, crack down on corruption and guarantee education and healthcare as rights. The rest of his platform is pretty generic.
Ricardo Lombana (Ind.): Lombana is the strongest independent candidate, placing third or fourth in the polls, managing to attract considerable support with an anti-establishment and anti-corruption message and aggressive grassroots campaign. He is a former journalist and editor for La Prensa, as well as a lawyer. He was consul of Panama in Washington between 2004 and 2007. He would convene a constituent assembly to write a new constitution, and he'd propose a set of reforms to fight and punish corruption. He also wants to reduce the size of government and bureaucracy with investments in "innovation, technology and training" so that Panama has the "smallest and most efficient government in the world", although he also wants this tiny government to lead an education revolution that'd improve the education system to make it one of the best in the world.
Ana Matilde Gómez (Ind.): Gómez is a former attorney general (2005-2010), removed from office by order of the supreme court for an investigation into abuse of power (after a prosecutor sued her for intercepting his calls to prove his blackmailing crimes). She later filed filed charges against the state with the Inter-American Court of Human Rights for the violation of her rights. She returned to politics in 2014, being elected as an independent candidate to the National Assembly in circuit 8-7 with the most votes of any candidate in the country. She would also convene a constituent assembly after a referendum, to write a new constitution which would reform all three branches of government, impose term limits on legislators and abolish parliamentary immunity. She also supports eliminating government waste, improving transparency, tougher sanctions on corruption (including lifetime ineligibility for corrupt politicians), a 'bursary' program for the unemployment and a moratorium on future open-mit metal mining concessions.
Marco Ameglio (Ind.): Ameglio is a longtime politician who was a member of the National Assembly between 1989 and 2004, president of the Panameñista Party between 2005 and 2006 and member of the board of directors of the Panama Canal Authority from 2010 to 2018. He unsuccessfully sought the Panameñista Party's presidential nomination in both 2004 and 2009, and left the party in 2018 after launching his independent bid for the presidency. His entire platform is written in CAPS LOCK so I assume he is very angry, or his keyboard is broken. He wants a national unity government of 'the best' regardless of their political background. His platform, incoherently written like the disjointed manifesto of a crazy person with strong opinions on politics, is pretty anti-establishment and says basta ya! to everything. Thinks same-sex marriage is antibiological and illogical, so f you dude.
Saúl Méndez (FAD): Secretary general of the construction workers' union, Méndez is the candidate of the very weak left-wing Frente Amplio por la Democracia and claims to be the only "anti-neoliberal" candidate in the race. Supports a constituent assembly to write a new constitution that'd do away with the privileges of a tiny minority which controls political institutions and the economy and ending the neoliberal economic model to reduce massive wealth inequalities. The platform, handwritten (!), isn't actually all that radical - basically wants better public healthcare and education, access to water and so forth. Although in Panama, that's probably dangerous Bolshevism. Panama was a mistake.
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