New Zealand Election 2017 (user search)
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Author Topic: New Zealand Election 2017  (Read 49263 times)
DC Al Fine
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« on: August 22, 2017, 12:54:36 PM »

Good to see that this will be United Future's last ever election. Hopefully it will be the same for the ACT.

Any polls for that one ACT seat?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2017, 06:16:06 PM »

There really should be some mechanism by which sub threshold parties can have their wasted votes redistributed to bigger parties. (Unless it leads to some sort of Australian microparty vote farming situation)

That is, if you accept the logic behind thresholds to begin with, which I personally don't.

Also are there no Christian/Conservative parties running anymore? Man, that wing really is unlucky.

I'm ok with thresholds, but 5% is a bit too high. Maybe 3%.

I think that the Conservative Party is still running, but they've collapsed entirely since 2014.

Personally, I wish everyone would go full Netherlands. Threshold = 100%/number of seats Smiley
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2017, 06:06:36 AM »

Quick question: How did Bill English get his job given that he led the Nats to a disastrous defeat in 2002?

But these problems also existed in 2015 and young voters didn't bother to turn out. Corbyn would have done better than Miliband with young voters anyway, but the difference between 2015 and 2017 was huge. Anyway I'm looking at some polls from before the Brexit (ugh crosstabs...) and apparently young people already trended Labour before Brexit but after Corbyn's election so you're probably right. And I agree that we probably shouldn't derail the thread anymore Tongue.

Agreed we shouldn't derail this although I think if this pans out there seems to be a trend where millennials at least in the English speaking world are trending heavily towards progressive parties.  Whether it be Justin Trudeau in Canada, Bernie Sanders in the US, Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, and now Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand there is a trend.  Each had their own unique reasons off course, but interesting trend nonetheless.  Now outside of the English speaking world you don't see this too much as I believe Merkel is still ahead amongst millennials although in France in the first round Melenchon won amongst millennials but Le Pen did just as well as amongst millennials as older voters although Fillon skewed heavily towards seniors.  I think in the Nordic Countries parties on the right do fairly well amongst millennials but could be wrong, although in the Netherlands Green Left despite coming in fifth I believe came in first amongst millennials.  So it is still interesting to see the trends and do cross country comparisons.

Another poll has Labour ahead 37 to National 34 but looks like this one is not removing the undecided voters as it doesn't add up to 100.

1) I wonder how much of this is due to immigration vs 'native' millennials rejecting their parents' politics.

2) What do you think this will mean for politics in ~20 years when millennials are middle aged, the boomers are dying off and a new generation is voting?
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