France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any French-language livestreams? (Links if possible)

Those Tender mentioned are probably in French.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Tradition.


Anyways, just watching Sarko's TV clip, and it's basically a negative spot ! I don't get it. I thought they were banned ? Did Sarko just break the law ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ...

WTF ?

Damn !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where are our Frenchies?

I was in front of my TV, duh.


Anyways, if you're interested in my feelings on this debate, I'd say Hollande has won it. Not by a wide margin, but considering how the conventional wisdom was that Sarko was THE champion in debates, I think it's positive news for Hollande overall. Of course my opinion is biased, but all along Sarkozy seemed extremely aggressive (well, that's understandable since he is losing) and a bit desperate in trying to score all political points. While Hollande wasn't statospheric, he kept some more dignity and appeared both more serene and, at some moment "stronger" (he didn't backtrack when Sarkozy attacked, and mostly stayed firm on his positions). I hope I'm not too biased, but I think Holland was definitely better (though both had good and bad moments). Sarko eventually didn't hesitate to bring up DSK and I think this is going to hurt him in the end. People already know everything about DSK and reminding them of that should appear for what it is : petty politicking. His insinuating that Hollande knew everything about his practice was a particularly low attack and I don't see what kind of voter would be seduced by that. It was also a bit funny to see Sarko singling out voters (addressing first of all Le Pen voters, then Bayrou voters, then abstentionists, each time with a different rhetoric), while Hollande claimed to talk to French people in general (which is a bit hypocritical of course but nonetheless a more dignified political positioning). Sarkozy was, predictably, reminded of his catastrophic record and I think that, in the end, this will matter more than his constant fearmongering of a Hollande victory turning France into Greece and all this bullsh*t. So here is my take.

I would like to know what Fabien thought about it, anyways.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bayrou said he won't give an official advice to MoDem voters but he will personally vote for Hollande

Wow, I honestly didn't expect so much. This is a pretty courageous decision for him, considering that this definitely cuts him from his former centrist "friends", hampering any potential political future. It isn't a key endorsement for Hollande, but it's certainly a good thing to take.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, some TV journalists have been assaulted by UMP militants during a Sarkozy meeting yesterday. It apparently hasn't had been much reported in the news, but I still find it quite telling about the feelings among Sarko's campaign.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.

You mean like Bee-roo ?

The correct pronounciation is obviously By-roo, though some in France still call him Beh-roo.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They should really pronounce it "perennial candidate"

"Perennial candidate" ? You don't know France.

Laguiller : 6 candidacies (74, 81, 88, 95, 02, 07)
Le Pen : 5 candidacies (74, 88, 95, 02, 07)
Mitterrand : 4 candidacies (65, 74, 81, 88)
Chirac : 4 candidacies (81, 88, 95, 02)

Bayrou ran only 3 times...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Correct answer is probably, [bajru].

Exactly. This might, however, confuse our Anglo posters, who are used to speak a language whose phonetics are so ridiculously f**ked up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Phil, we know, Sarkozy will be reelected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What?
Bayrou isn't pronounced Beh-rou?

Nope, but this is the kind of mistake every single journalist makes. Sort of how everybody called Mitterrand Mitt'rand.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!

No, no no. You're wrong. He must do this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At least the map won't be boring as hell.

Not to sound like a pedant, but I basically predicted a fairly close finish when every leftie had masturbatory moments over the 60-40 and 62-38 polls.

I never thought this would last. But 54/46 (or even 55/45) was a fairly probably outcome, especially after Sarko was unable to even come ahead of the first round.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still don't get this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Polls say Sarko has been gaining ground on both Le Pen and Bayrou voters. But I still fail to see a reason why he would. Well, maybe a couple Le Pen voters could like his recent populist turn, but most of them should see it as opportunist pandering (especially since he was already assured to take a half of them, the other half should be harsher for him). As for Bayrou voters : .

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about this scenario ?



"THE FINAL CHART"

Well, crossing fingers... This is really what should happen.