Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.midilibre.fr/2024/04/26/guerre-en-ukraine-matelas-gonflables-passeurs-des-milliers-de-citoyens-tentent-de-fuir-le-pays-pour-eviter-la-mobilisation-11916003.php

"War in Ukraine: inflatable mattresses, smugglers… thousands of citizens try to flee the country to avoid mobilization"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.midilibre.fr/2024/04/26/guerre-en-ukraine-matelas-gonflables-passeurs-des-milliers-de-citoyens-tentent-de-fuir-le-pays-pour-eviter-la-mobilisation-11916003.php

"War in Ukraine: inflatable mattresses, smugglers… thousands of citizens try to flee the country to avoid mobilization"

Mobilization on the Israeli model can be very taxing. If you draft the people who keep your economy going...you better hope you succeed, because if not...

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian source say that Russians have broken into Netailovo

[Open Source Intelligence]

AP: Ukraine withdraws M1 Abrams tanks from frontlines due to drones.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-abrams-tanks-19d71475d427875653a2130063a8fb7a

[jaichind]

AP: Ukraine withdraws M1 Abrams tanks from frontlines due to drones.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-abrams-tanks-19d71475d427875653a2130063a8fb7a

Are they going to alter them so they are less vulnerable to drones?  If not then this seems a move more about protecting the reputation of the USA military-industrial complex than actually helping the Ukraine military cause.

[jaichind]

https://www.blick.ch/ausland/trotz-us-milliardenhilfe-ukraine-kommandanten-warnen-der-donbass-faellt-im-oktober-id19681414.html

"Ukraine commanders warn: “Donbass will fall in October”"

Swiss media: Ukraine officer predict Donbas will fall to Russians by October 2024

[Storr]

""We have a choice: Either having a defeated Russian army outside the borders of Ukraine or a victorious Russian army on the border of Poland. And what Putin would then do is what Hitler did to Czechoslovakia, he would take the industry and the people of Ukraine and mobilize them to go further," [Polish Foreign Minister] Sikorski said.

"You know, half the German tanks that invaded Poland in 1939 were actually Czech. So if Putin conquers Ukraine, he will be more powerful. And the challenge for us would be bigger ... It's better to to stop Putin in Ukraine, 500-700km east of here," he continued."

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1784513951838966146

[Storr]

All that Russia has left is nuclear threats.

"Judging by this preview of his show tonight, top Kremlin propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov is once again going to threaten the West with nuclear Armageddon: "So will Russia use nuclear weapons if NATO forces enter Ukraine in order to destroy Russia? For those who didn't believe us 10 years ago, once again, let me speak about [turning the US into] radioactive ash.""

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1784587793206784078

[SuzerainOfSwat]

Ukraine is not in good shape, they’ve put up a hell of a fight much more than even optimistic sources thought they could, seems like the tide is turning against them.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/cd6c28e2-d327-4c2a-a023-098ca43eacfb

"Western banks in Russia paid €800mn in taxes to Kremlin last year"

Collective West Banks in Russia did far more business in Russia in 2022 and 2023 and paid far more in taxes to the Russian government than in the pre-war period.

[Storr]

https://www.ft.com/content/cd6c28e2-d327-4c2a-a023-098ca43eacfb

"Western banks in Russia paid €800mn in taxes to Kremlin last year"

Collective West Banks in Russia did far more business in Russia in 2022 and 2023 and paid far more in taxes to the Russian government than in the pre-war period.

Half of the €800mn is from Raiffeisen Bank International located in neutral Austria.

"Western lenders have benefited from the imposition of sanctions on most of the Russian financial sector, which has denied access to the Swift international interbank payment system. That made international banks a financial lifeline between Moscow and the west.

Such factors contributed to RBI’s net fee and commission income in Russia increasing threefold from €420mn in 2021 to €1.2bn in 2023.

“It is not only in RBI’s interest to stay in Russia. The [Russian central bank] will do everything it can to not let them go because there are few non-sanctioned banks through which Russia can receive and send Swift payments,” a senior Russian banking executive said."

https://www.ft.com/content/cd6c28e2-d327-4c2a-a023-098ca43eacfb

[Open Source Intelligence]

""We have a choice: Either having a defeated Russian army outside the borders of Ukraine or a victorious Russian army on the border of Poland. And what Putin would then do is what Hitler did to Czechoslovakia, he would take the industry and the people of Ukraine and mobilize them to go further," [Polish Foreign Minister] Sikorski said.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1784513951838966146

If that's the choice, why aren't you declaring war and deploying Polish troops?

[Woody]

In his turn, Bild's source in the AFU said that it fears an attack on Kharkiv involving 20,000-40,000 Russian soldiers.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1784956539372998812

[Storr]

I didn't take from this that Ukraine is doomed. It shows that war fatigue/anxiety is real after 2+ years of war with no end in sight.

"It’s not a great time to be a young man in Ukraine. Especially if you aren’t fortunate enough to live in the capital. I visited Odessa [the third largest city in Ukraine], where many men are hiding, in fear of being “caught” by the draft officers.

FWIW, the article has already provoked quite a bit of discussion inside Ukraine. For some it’s hit a nerve. But as I write, there are no black and white choices in Odessa. I’m pleased that the majority of people from the city are writing positive things about the text."



https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1784822784104759437

[Storr]

""We have a choice: Either having a defeated Russian army outside the borders of Ukraine or a victorious Russian army on the border of Poland. And what Putin would then do is what Hitler did to Czechoslovakia, he would take the industry and the people of Ukraine and mobilize them to go further," [Polish Foreign Minister] Sikorski said.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1784513951838966146

If that's the choice, why aren't you declaring war and deploying Polish troops?

Because pro-Ukrainian Western politicians/officials are operating under the belief (or at least publicly saying) that Russia can be stopped by Ukrainian forces without NATO troop intervention.

[Open Source Intelligence]

""We have a choice: Either having a defeated Russian army outside the borders of Ukraine or a victorious Russian army on the border of Poland. And what Putin would then do is what Hitler did to Czechoslovakia, he would take the industry and the people of Ukraine and mobilize them to go further," [Polish Foreign Minister] Sikorski said.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1784513951838966146

If that's the choice, why aren't you declaring war and deploying Polish troops?

Because pro-Ukrainian Western politicians/officials are operating under the belief (or at least publicly saying) that Russia can be stopped by Ukrainian forces without NATO troop intervention.

How did that line of thinking work out for them in Syria?

[jaichind]

Sounds like Afghanistan II

[Hindsight was 2020]

""We have a choice: Either having a defeated Russian army outside the borders of Ukraine or a victorious Russian army on the border of Poland. And what Putin would then do is what Hitler did to Czechoslovakia, he would take the industry and the people of Ukraine and mobilize them to go further," [Polish Foreign Minister] Sikorski said.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1784513951838966146

If that's the choice, why aren't you declaring war and deploying Polish troops?

Because pro-Ukrainian Western politicians/officials are operating under the belief (or at least publicly saying) that Russia can be stopped by Ukrainian forces without NATO troop intervention.

How did that line of thinking work out for them in Syria?

Oh please like the anti-Assad rebels have anywhere near the resources or aid Ukraine does

[Woody]

In the Avdiivka front alone, Russia has captured more ground than Ukraine ever did during it's counteroffensive. Not to mention ever since the Ukrainians have gradually lost it's gains around Robotyne and Bakhmut since then.

[jaichind]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/04/another-us-precision-guided-weapon-falls-prey-russian-electronic-warfare-us-says/396141/

"Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says"

A new ground-launched version of an air-to-ground weapon developed for Ukraine on a rapid timeline failed to hit targets in part because of Russian electro-magnetic warfare, Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon's acquisition chief, said at an event held by think tank CSIS.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians have recaptured Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia.  This was the main settlement that Ukraine captured as part of its 2023 summer counteroffensive.   

[jaichind]

Russia's change in real wages (left) and Russia's real wages (right) since 2000.  The 2014 sanctions were much more impactful than the 2022 sanctions.

It seems both Russia and Ukraine learned their lessons of 2014 very well.  Ukraine learned of its military vulnerability and between 2014-2022  its military became much more effective and outperformed expectations on the battlefield in this war.  Russia learned of its economic vulnerability and between 2014-2022 made its economy much more sanction-proof and is outperforming economically. 

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say the Russians capture  Keramik and is moving toward Novoaleksandrovka

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/key-insurer-says-russia-oil-price-cap-increasingly-unenforceable

"Key Insurer Says Russia Oil Price Cap Increasingly Unenforceable"

The entire Russian oil cap regime is based using shipping insurance.  At this stage the Russians has built an alternative shipping and shipping insurance ecosystem to make this entire cap system break down, not that it really worked that well in the first place.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/key-insurer-says-russia-oil-price-cap-increasingly-unenforceable

"Key Insurer Says Russia Oil Price Cap Increasingly Unenforceable"

The entire Russian oil cap regime is based using shipping insurance.  At this stage the Russians has built an alternative shipping and shipping insurance ecosystem to make this entire cap system break down, not that it really worked that well in the first place.

This was likely priced in in the plans of US and allies. How much money did it cost Russia? Time will tell.